The TOP 20 Auto Fades in MLB

The TOP 20 Auto Fades in MLB

by Joe Gavazzi Winning Sports Advice



The information in this article has been prepared using statistics for the 2018 MLB Season through Sunday, May 27th

From time to time this article may be updated with current information.

The first thought that crosses many handicapper’s minds when considering an MLB selection is “I am looking for a hot team and a hot pitcher”.  But there is another side of that coin.  My opinion is that there is even more money to be made by going against the worst pitchers in MLB. The sooner you identify them, the more profit you will make.

The list that follows is the “Top 20 auto fade pitchers in MLB” through Sunday, May 27, 2018.  Granted, we would have made a lot more money if we would have identified these starters April 1st.  There is still, however, money to be made by fading these guys.  And you would have to find a very good reason to play on them.  Some of these guys have already been booted back to the minors, relegated to the bullpen, or have suffered injuries and are on the DL.  Keep this list handy.  They may return!  Regardless, with 20 pitchers on this list, there is almost always a good chance for at least a couple of “Auto Fades” every day.  The list is prepared in order of the worst ERA’s to the best.  Included, of course, is the pitchers name along with his TRGS record (team record games started… its how we get paid) and their OPS.

Note that in order to qualify for the list a pitcher must have 3 qualifying factors.

1)  Minimum of 5 starts with a TRGS that is 3 or more games below .500

2)  An ERA of 5.00 or worse and OPS of greater than .800 or worse.

3)  An OPS of  > than .800 or worse


Pitcher Name TRGS > 5.00 ERA > .800 OPS
Vargas 1-4 10.62 1.090
Tillman 2-5 10.47 1.100
Finnegan 0-5 8.28 .961
Moore 3-6 8.19 .965
Tomlin 1-5 8.10 1.090
Stroman 2-5 7.71 .822
Graveman 2-5 7.60 .909
Cobb 1-7 7.32 1.050
Skoglund 3-6 6.70 .871
Mitchell 2-5 6.47 .918
Lauer 1-5 6.67 .951
Santiago 1-4 6.38 .946
Lynn 3-6 6.34 .874
Samardzija 2-5 6.23 .783
Bailey 1-10 6.21 .924
Duffy 2-9 6.14 .885
Romano 4-7 5.73 .838
Suarez 1-5 5.29 .874
Kennedy 3-8 5.15 .841
Cashner 3-8 5.07 .896


If you had played against all these pitchers from Day #1 you would be 120-38 (and on your way to the islands for a vacation).  As prices escalate to go against these Top 20 Auto Fades, consider using the OPS information and the runline data on the articles at this site.


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