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Joe Gavazzi’s 33rd Annual

November Nockout

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Let me hear from you today…  Joe Gavazzi

Here is a schedule of your


       Saturday       October 30 … CFB STEAMROLLER GAME OF THE YEAR

        Sunday         October 31 … NFL WTF GAME OF THE YEAR

       Saturday        November 6… THE CFB GAME OF THE YEAR

        Sunday         November 7… NFL OVER/UNDER GAME OF THE YEAR

        Saturday       November 13… CFB REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR

       Sunday          November 14… THE NFL GAME OF THE YEAR

        Saturday       November 20… CFB WTF GAME OF THE YEAR

       Sunday          November 21… NFL CRUSHER GAME OF THE YEAR

       Friday            November 27… CFB UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR

        Saturday       November 28… CFB RIVALRY GAME OF THE YEAR


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2021-22 Basketball Rates
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64-41 ATS NBA

At the request of many, I began releasing NBA selections at the conclusion of the CBKB Season last year.  The results, as shown above, were quite rewarding with a 35 day record of 64-41 ATS (61%),  just prior to the start of the NBA Playoffs.  We will begin where we left off on Opening Night next Tuesday, Oct 19th.  JOIN THE FUN FOR LESS THAN $10/DAY or SAVE 20% with an EARLY BIRD NBA PACKAGE.


Led by our mind boggling 6% record of 69% ATS winners over the last 9 years, the College Hoop Season tips off November 6th.  The same methods will be used that resulted in an unprecedented 20 out of 22 winning weeks prior to last year’s COVID impacted season.  Leading the parade will be my unique and proprietary RAT RATINGS which you can read all about at JoeGavazziSports.com.  They are joined by my S.O.S. (Strength of Schedule) underdog plays, and “Defensive Dandies”, along with the coaching personality profiles, to yield consistent winners from the Opening Tip to the Final Four.  You don’t want to miss a single night as, in the 7 years ending in November 2020 (College Hoops did not start until very late November last year), the 7 year November Hoop record was 527-299 ATS (64%).  THAT’S A LOT OF PROFIT!


Joe Gavazzi’s Executive Penthouse Picks

Thursday, October 21st


Opinion ONLY  Cleveland (-1.5)  8:20 PM ET

I lost a 5% NFL selection on Cleveland last week dropping the recent NFL Penthouse Pick record to 15-6 ATS (70%).   Cleveland did not deserve to win, but a -3 Net TO margin clearly sealed the deal.  Referring to the “Keep on Trackin’” section of your Pointspread Prognosis Newsletter, you will note that, for the season, any CFB or NFL team with a -2 or more Net TO margin in the game is 28-138 ATS (18%), including 4-29 ATS (12%) in the NFL.  Please consider this factor when reviewing results.  In tonight’s selection, the 3-3 SU, ATS Broncos enter Cleveland with a banged up QB Bridgewater (foot) and multiple LB injuries.  That injury report however, pales in comparison to the fact that the Browns will be without QB Mayfield (torn labrum) and most probably their two best RBs, Chubb and Hunt, along with a pair of starting OTs.  An opening line of (-6) has disintegrated to (-1.5).  Replacing Mayfield will be QB Keenum who teamed with current Brown’s HC Stefansky while both were at Minnesota to create a solid 11-3 SU run.  They will be going up against solid numbers of both Bridgewater, who is 23-4 ATS away as starter, and Denver HC Fangio, who in 2+ years, has gone 16-8 ATS in non-division games and is 13-8 ATS/loss.  That latter record has taken a beating of late as, after the Broncos opened 3-0 SU, ATS (76-26 MOV) against Hart Schaffner and Marks (aka NYG, Jax and NYJ), who now have 3 combined victories, THEY HAVE LOST THEIR NEXT 3 GAMES, all as favorite, against Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Vegas.  That 34-24 loss to the Raiders last week was compliments of a -4 Net TO margin.  In those games, they were outscored 84-50.  Do the Broncos bounce against a battered and bruised Browns team, or is it next man up for a Cleveland team with their backs to the Division wall now trailing the Ravens by 2 games entering Week #7.  At this reduced price, it’s an opinion only on Cleveland.



Category  % since  L3Y  2020  2021
Double Rushes  75% 689-176 (79.7% ATS) 161-39 (80.5% ATS) 145-45
200 Clubs  74% 376-116 (76.4% ATS) 92-31 (74.8% ATS) 74-26
+3+ Net TO Margin  89% 268-26 (91.2% ATS) 60-3 (95.2%ATS) 46-8
+2 Net TO Margin  76% 169-53 (76.1%ATS) 66-20 (76.7% ATS) 63-16

NFL  “Keep on Trackin’” 

Category  % since 


L4Y  2020  2021
Play any team who outrushed their opponent by 30+ yards 75% 492-153  (76.3%) 92-33 (73.6%) 51-19
Play any team with 30+ running attempts if opponent does not 87% 479-101   (82.6%) 97-23 (80.8%) 46-14
PLAY AGAINST any team who rushes ball 22 or less times if foe does 87% 467-493   (83.4%) 79-19 (80.6%) 44-9
ATS result of SU winner in games where line is 6 or less 91% 438-65   (87.1%) 105-17 (86.0%) 59-6
Play any team with a Net TO margin of +3 or more in a game 91% 142-11   (92.8%) 22-2 (91.7%) 14-2
Play any team with a Net TO margin of  +2 in a game 77% 299-74   (80%) 39-8 (82.9%) 15-2


Thumbnail Sketches of 130 CFB Teams

by Joe Gavazzi

All Conference are loaded below…
be the smartest one in the room on Game Day!

Football is here and the train is leaving the station… get on or get out of the way!


PAC 12


Oregon Ducks

Oregon is the 2 time defending PAC 12 Title holder after they defeated USC in the PAC 12 Playoff game.  Unfortunately, they were a bit exposed in the Bowl game against Iowa State when they were outrushed 228-86.  This however, appears to be a team capable of defending their Crown.  At the signal caller spot will be BC transfer Anthony Brown, a senior, who, in 28 starts for BC, had a 40/20 ratio.  He will need to be at his best considering that, although they have 9 offensive starters returning, they have returning production of only 55% on offense and an OL with just 36 starts.  Line play however, has traditionally been the strength under 4th year HC Cristobal.  Of more concern is the loss of DC Avalos to Boise State. Yet, should that be a concern?   Under his guidance, the Ducks allowed 28/406, easily their highest yardage number in the 3 year tenure of Cristobal.  Looking to improve that unit is new DC DeRuyter who served the same position for Cal the previous 4 years.  With outstanding recruiting seasons in his pocket since his arrival, including Top 10 ranking each of the previous 3 years, there is ample talent on this squad just waiting to be developed.  With no revenge game against USC in the Regular Season, I look for the Ducks to retain their PAC 12 Title.

Washington Huskies

Other bureaus are a bit higher on the Huskies than am I.  Yes they return 89% of their yards and 81% of their tackles.  But  To continue reading…  https://joegavazzisports.com/ts-pac-12/



Florida Atlantic Owls

With 94% of their defensive production returning, and 93% of their offensive production returning, including 102 OL starts, this team is loaded in the 2nd year under HC Taggart.  Taggart, you will recall, had much to prove after bombing in his dream job “at Florida State” where he went 9-12 SU in a pair of seasons.  That was motivation enough for Taggart’s troops to begin last season 5-1 SU before running out of gas down the stretch with losses of 17 at GA Southern, 14 at S. Miss., and 15 to Memphis in the Bowl game.  This in the 2021 season look for a potential return to the double digit winning seasons of 2017 and 2019 when the Owls had a combined record of 22-6 SU, 19-7 ATS.  In a crowded QB room, including Penn State transfer M. Johnson, son of OC Johnson, look for the higher profile N. Perry (Miami) to win the job  when he transfers “down the road” from Miami( FL).  As a Top 20 recruit, he toiled for 3 years with the Hurricanes including 9 career starts.  The 24/10 ratio is far more impressive than the 52% C.  The 5-4 SU season of last, the first under traditionally successful HC Taggart, was a masterful performance considering just 9 RS in a COVID year.  With a 17/343 defense adding experience for DC Mike Stoops, the transition should be easy for Perry with 10 RS including an OL with over 100 career starts.  Holding onto the football and not tripping over his shoelaces will be the only requirement for Perry this season, AS HE TRANSITIONS FROM THE BIG FISH WATERS OF THE ACC TO THIS SMALLER POND. 

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Trey Lance.  You possibly did not hear of this signal caller before the 49ers drafted him in the 1st round after he had a 17-0 TRGS at N. Dakota State with a 30/0 ratio.  That is relevant to this analysis as you most likely have never heard of To continue reading…  https://joegavazzisports.com/ts-cusa/

BIG 10


Ohio State Buckeyes

Unless you understand the importance of recruiting rankings you would question the ability of the Buckeyes to bounce back following their 52-24 decapitation by Alabama in the National Title Game last season.  With only 11 returning starters in a year when 75 % of the teams are returning 18 or more starters, it would appear that Ohio State has little chance to extend its’ streak of 4 Big 10 Titles.  NFL draft losses were significant once again including QB Fields.  These perennial Top 5 teams however, are annually characterized by one common theme:  They have great offensive and defensive lines.  That is the case once again this season as Ohio State looks to extend the records of 20-2 SU, including 16-0 SU under the guidance of 3rd year mentor Ryan Day.

Indiana Hoosiers

5th year HC Allen was rewarded for his 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS season with a 7 year contract of nearly $5 million dollars/year.  Yes, that’s to coach football at Indiana.  But Allen’s infectious enthusiasm  To continue reading…  https://joegavazzisports.com/ts-big-10/



Appalachian State Mountaineers

The Sun Belt is making a dramatic rise up the Conference hierarchy.  As with last season, App State, LA Lafayette and Coastal Carolina all have the potential to be Top 25 teams.  App State has the greatest history with an amazing record of 63-15 L6Y.  Last year, under 2nd year HC Clark, they suffered losses at defensively stingy Marshall and to both Coastal and OOH LA LA.  I visited Kidd Brewer Stadium in the off season and was quite impressed with the Power 5 atmosphere of this 30,000 seat stadium which will again rock to full capacity for 6 home games.

Hard to say that Clemson/Duke transfer C. Brice can add much to a team who has been the perennial cream of the crop in Sun Belt play with a 42-10 SU record L4Y.  But with the departure of 3 year starter Zac Thomas, the addition of Brice, a Top 25 ranked recruit, could well be the homerun this team needed to challenge CCU and ULL for the Belt.  Brice comes with an extraordinary pedigree being recruited by Clemson, then transferring and starting for Duke LY.  There, despite the tutelage of Duke HC Cutcliffe, a renowned QB whisperer, Brice became a turnover machine throwing 15 INTs.  Returning to guide him is OC Ponce who was in this role from 2013-18, before spending the last two seasons at L’ville. Defense is rarely a question for App State who has allowed 20 or less points for 6 consecutive seasons. With 10 returning starters, that unit should once again be dominant assuring the Mountaineers of their place as Best in the East.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

The story of program initiator and former HC Joe Moglia hit its crescendo when Moglia’s hand-picked HC Jamie Chadwell led the Chants to a dramatic 11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS season that included 7-0 SU on the “surf turf”, a name that came into prominence last season as a nod to the proximity of Myrtle Beach and its teal color. To continue reading… https://joegavazzisports.com/ts-sun-belt/



Toledo Rockets

Toledo is among the most experienced teams in the nation with all 11 starters returning on both offense and defense, including an OL that returns 101 career starts.  Last year, Toledo’s 2 losses were to their closest competitors in the MAC  WEST, Western Michigan and Ball State, each by 3 points.  If you believe there is value in the betting line come game day, each of these plays would be viable revenge spots for the Rockets who are looking to return to the glory days of 2014-2017 when they went 39-13 SU.  One caveat, before you pull the betting lever in their game at Ball State, note that 6th year HC Candle is 1-8 ATS in the role of road dog the previous 4 years.

Western Michigan Broncos

With 83% of their production returning on each side of the ball, and a total of 19 returning starters, Western will challenge Toledo for the MAC WEST Title.  Offense will clearly not be a question as they averaged 42/489 LY and return starting QB Eleby (65% C, 18/2 LY), and 4 OL.  After a 4-0 SU start last season… to continue reading  https://joegavazzisports.com/ts-mac-conference/




Clemson Tigers

Losses to Notre Dame (no QB Lawrence) and Ohio State, in the Playoffs, means that Clemson had 2 losses for the season for only the 2nd time in 6 years.  The defense dropped to 20/327 LY. This unit however, will be the strength of the team this season. They return 9 starters and 89% of their tackles.  It will be the offense that must answer questions in the opener on September 4th against Georgia.  Loss of QB Lawrence and RB Etienne means that an attack unit, which averaged 44/523 over the last 3 seasons, will be a notch below.  New QB Uiagalelei was impressive in his only start vs. Notre Dame.   But the unit returns on 35% of the offensive production while the OL has just 37 career starts.  HC Swinney’s recruiting prowess and depth will be sorely tested in that regard.  The Tigers were on a 15-2 ATS run vs. the ACC until the line caught up with them last season when they were 5-5 ATS in Conference games.

Florida State Seminoles

None of the perennial Top 10 teams has taken a more precipitous dip than these Seminoles.  After 42 consecutive winning seasons, Florida State has been on the losing side of the ledger 3 years.  The first two were under Willie Taggart… to continue reading https://joegavazzisports.com/ts-acc-conference/



Cincinnati Bearcats

Benefiting from his years at Ohio State, 5th year HC Fickle has authored an incredible turnaround in the Queen City.  A 4-8 SU record in 2017, duplicated the previous season under then 4th year HC Tuberville.  In the last 3 seasons, the combined record is 31-6 SU with a pointspread mark at 15-8 ATS L2Y.  Last year’s Top 10 finish and a 3 point loss to powerful Georgia in their bowl game, indicates that 7 returning starters on each side of the ball will once again have the Bearcats in this year’s Top 20.  Defense has been the calling card including the 2020 performance when they allowed just 17/328, including 114/3.2 overland.  Note their 3 year record to be even more impressive than you would expect as their last 5 defeats have come vs. Georgia, Memphis (twice), Ohio State and UCF.  Must also note the accomplishment of 20 consecutive home victories.  The offense is led by QB Ridder, who with 35 starts, has an impressive 57/20 ratio and has a 32-5 TRGS.  Bearcats should again be headed to a double digit season but watch that price tag for what may quickly become an overpriced team.

UCF Golden Knights

Now, this will interesting.  New HC Malzahn is widely described as an offensive guru. To read more…. https://joegavazzisports.com/ts-aac/


BIG 12

Oklahoma Sooners

Great news for the Sooners is the defensive improvement over the last three years.  In 2018, Oklahoma allowed 33/454. Making improvements each of the last two years, they allowed just 22/355 last season, including 112/3.5 YPR.  Under HC Riley, now 45-8 SU in 4 years, offense is never the question.  The same is true this season.  QB Rattler returns to operate behind an OL that has 126 career starts.  With plenty of replacements for the lost skill position players, this will again be a 40/500+ offense, among the best in the nation.

Iowa State Cyclones

In the 6th season under HC Matt Campbell, the Cyclones are 38-21 ATS including 17-6 ATS as dog, and 17-8 ATS away L5Y.  That’s an instant picture of how far down the Cyclone program was (8-28 SU in the 3 years before Campbell) and a credit to how far he has taken them.  This year, they will again be among the Top 20 teams in the nation. To continue reading... https://joegavazzisports.com/big-12/




Alabama Crimson Tide

The Crimson Tide emerged as National Champions yet again in 2020 with a 52-24 decapitation of a very good Ohio State team, outgaining them 621-341.  With only 11 returning starters, just 3 on offense, one may question if they continue to average the 47 PPG of the L3Y.  May I point out that in the L4 seasons, Alabama has gone 51-4 SU WITH NO MORE THAN 12 RETURNING STARTERS IN ANY OF THOSE SEASONS.  Most of that is a function of the perennial Top 5 recruiting classes by 14th  year HC Saban year after year.  The stats for each of the 3 previous seasons look remarkably similar with an MOV of 47-19 and average yardage edge of 525-333.  This year’s new signal caller is QB Bryce Young who has already garnered more than a million dollars in endorsements.  The list goes on and on as the Tide reloads year after year as Saban looks for his 7th National Title.  The defense is even better than last season with the only question mark being the effectiveness of new OC Bill O’Brien, the former head coach of the Houston Texans.

Texas A&M Aggies

Now in his 4th season at College Station, and with a trio of Top 10 recruiting… To Read More...https://joegavazzisports.com/mountain-west-conference/


Mountain West Conference



Nevada Wolfpack

All signs pointing up in Reno where the Wolfpack qualifies as BOTH a “TOP 20 Blast Off Offense” and a “TOP 20 Defensive Dandy”.  QB Strong returns for 4th year HC Norvell.  He will play behind the #6 ranked OL who has 72 combined starts.  Last year, they averaged 31 PPG, 441 YPG, and now return 99% of their offensive production.  On the stop side, this 7-2 SU team from last year, allowed just 23 PPG, 378 YPG, and now returns 93% of their tackles.  Other than the most probably inflated price tag, following a 6-3 ATS campaign, what is not to like about this pack of Wolves 

San Diego State Aztecs

In the first season of the return of Brady Hoke as the Head man in San Diego To Read More…https://joegavazzisports.com/mountain-west-conference/



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What Our Clients Have to Say

Joe… Thanks for the great coll hoop year.  I paid off my Harley, gave my wife $10,000 (gotta keep her happy) and went on a golf trip with my buddies.  Can’t wait to do it again with you.


Joe… MLB had a great run this year and made paying for that expensive family vacation a whole lot less painful.  Can’t wait for football.

Mike R.

Joe… You are the most consistent solid handicapper who I count on year after year

Nice run, Joe but you know I’m not surprised.  Virtually every year I have been with you since the early 90s there has been a 60% run of 200 or more games.  You may just be the GOAT at College hoop capping.

Steve P

Nice “All Sport Run” as you call it, Joe.  Thanks!  My new part time job is finding more “outs”!


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