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PRINCE OF PUCKS MELTS THE ICE

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(a copy of this streak, available for laminating and framing,
available by request)

Below is a copy of an email I received from Young Blood (a.k.a. Prince of Pucks) regarding his recent run.  I can attest to this as I monitor and “tail” the winners.  In short, he is amazed (as I am) that more of you are not aboard.

Best regards, 

Joe Gavazzi

“How many love letters have I received?  Zero!  How many bookies have I bankrupted?  Dozens.  How many times do I have to tell y’all what the deal is here?  Bet it.  Collect it.  And most importantly DO NOT neglect it.   We’re talking about thousands of dollars left on the table here ladies and gentlemen.  You know my runaround; you don’t have to watch it to win it.  Some people don’t like hockey.  But I have yet to meet someone who doesn’t like making money.  Tell your sister in law’s butcher’s second cousin through 3 marriages to hop on this gravy train.”

YBS (aka Prince of Pucks)

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Joe Gavazzi’s CFB & NFL  

POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS 

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2021 Week #21 Edition   

JOE GAVAZZI’S POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS RESULTS 

116-78 ATS (60%) Last 15 weeks! 

27-11 ATS (71%) NFL Last 6 weeks!

Let us know how much you have won with these selections the last 15 weeks.

END OF REGULAR SEASON

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NFL PLAYOFF FORMAT

  • The Pointspread Prognosis will analyze all 13 NFL Playoff games with OPINIONS ONLY.
  • Selected Percentage of bankroll rated plays Friday 4:00 PM ET
  • $95 Cost…  (FREE with Basketball Subscription) for remaining games

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WHAT NFL HOME FIELD EDGE?…  OH!, THAT HOME FIELD EDGE!

During the NFL Regular Season, home teams won only 50% of the games outright.  That’s the lowest mark I can ever remember.  But that all changed last week, as it often does, come NFL Playoff time.  Home teams went 5-1 ATS with 4/5 of the winners by 16+ points.

Same ole, same ole.  As far as other statistical results, they played out right to form of the Regular Season.

  • 1-0 ATS… plus 3 or more Net TOs
  • 3-0 ATS… plus 2 Net TO margin
  • 4-0 ATS… outrushed foe 30+ yards
  • 3-0 ATS… 30 rushing attempts, foe did not
  • 5-0 ATS… foe 22 or less running attempts
  • 4-0 ATS… ATS outcome of SU winner in games where line is 6 or less

13-1 ATS (93%) Current Run of NFL & CFB Penthouse Picks Sides

NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND

Saturday, January 22nd

OPINION  

TENNESSEE Titans (-3.5) vs. Cincinnati  Bengals 4:30 PM ET

I stay with the theme of this week’s introduction.  It is my opinion that home teams will continue to flourish this weekend.  Home teams playing with rest in the Divisional Round are 100-34 SU.  That’s just shy of 75% winners.  Considering that “In NFL games where the line is 6 or less, the SU winner covers 91% of the time” (See “Keep on Trackin’”),  that gives you a very high confidence level on this week’s “rested homers” Tennessee and Green Bay.   The Bengals enter as a red hot underdog.  Behind 2nd year QB Burrow, who has a near flawless record in his College and NFL Playoff career, the Bengals survived Las Vegas last week, 26-19, despite being outgained 385-308.  The victory was more attributable to the +2 Net TO margin.  The victory however was bittersweet in that a pair of their starting DLs were either injured or going through concussion protocol.  But there are plenty more reasons to like the home town Titans.  When RB Henry went down, it appeared the Titan’s season may come to a screeching halt.  Though the running production did take a hit, they do still enter the Playoffs averaging 141 RYPG with a +56 RYPG edge which is easily the best of the remaining Playoff teams.  That difference could soar today with the anticipated return of RB Henry.  In his absence, the strong coaching of Vrabel and leadership of QB Tannehill resulted in the Titans emerging victorious in no fewer than 8 games vs. opponents with a winning record this season.  Clearly that bodes well in the Post Season.  Only one side to consider in the opinion of this bureau!

OPINION

GREEN BAY Packers  (-6) vs. San Francisco  49ers   8:15 PM ET

Lots to like about San Francisco and underrated QB Garoppolo who moved his record to 18-9 TRGS away with the San Francisco victory at Dallas last week.  The win was Fo’ Real with a 169-77 overland edge.  The Niners are a hot team entering with a recent record of 8-2 SU, ATS.  In what has been a continuing story for 2nd round  underdogs, the scheduling scenario often works against them.  In this case, the Niners will be playing on the road for the 7th time in the last 10 weeks.  This includes their 3rd consecutive road game following hard-fought, emotional, down to the wire victories at LA Rams and Dallas last week.  They must be given credit for their 7-3 SU road record, including victories over Playoff teams Philadelphia, Arizona, Cincinnati, Tennessee, LA Rams and Dallas.  None of those wins however, was played in this type of Playoff scenario which sees them travel on a short week to play on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.  History clearly works against them as we know that Wildcard underdog winners have won just 17% of the games in the Divisional Round.  Beating the best team in football on this field is a tough ask, considering that Green Bay was 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS on this field this season.  Here’s your FCB (Final Crushing Blow):  Green Bay HC LeFleur is 27-12 ATS to -7  and  is 6-0 SU/loss L2Y.

HARD WORK, EXPERIENCE, GREAT THEORIES!

Wednesday CBKB & NBA Hoops Results

10-5 ATS (67%)

Including 5% Creighton (-3.5)  87-64 Wire-to-Wire
This kind of day will happen with regularity!

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NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND

Sunday, January 23rd

OPINION

TAMPA BAY Buccaneers (-2.5) vs. LA Rams   3:00 PM ET

Yet another bad scenario for the traveler.  The Rams just played Monday night in defeating Arizona, 31-14.  Yes, they dominated throughout with combined running and passing edges of 375-183 and a +2 Net TO margin.  So what!?  That came vs. a team against whom they had a 9-1 SU, ATS series record in the previous 5 years.   Furthermore, it was against an Arizona team that took a late season dive for the 3rd consecutive year under HC Kingsbury.  As if the scheduling scenario, and traveling west to east, is not enough of a challenge, consider the fact that the Rams beat Tampa Bay 34-24 in LA in late September.  That will surely be bulletin board material for the T Bay bunch. As for QB Stafford, he finally claimed a Playoff victory which must make him feel like a Super Bowl Champion.  That achievement pales in comparison to a career of victories in Playoff Games for Bucs QB Brady.  Well aware that T Bay is suffering from major injuries to WRs and the OL.  But the advantage of QB Brady, a home field where Tampa Bay is 8-1 SU this year, including leading the Eagles 31-0 last week, and the negative scheduling scenario for the Rams can only lead us to one side.

OPINION

KANSAS CITY Chiefs  (-2.5) vs. Buffalo  6:30 PM ET

Regardless of who meets in the Conference Title Game next week, these are the two best teams in the AFC.  Much of the media hype will come based on Buffalo revenge for their 38-24 loss on this field to the Chiefs last year.  Some of the fervor may be depleted from that emotion as Buffalo got their revenge earlier on this field by a count of 38-20 courtesy of a +4 Net TO margin.  That however, came just prior to the Chiefs torrid season-ending 10-1 SU run.  There is little question that the Bills are a worthy adversary.  Behind QB Allen, playing a near perfect game, Buffalo spanked New England 47-17 with a +2 Net TO margin and a 174-89 overland edge.  That’s quite a difference from the previous meeting on that field when New England ran for over 200 yards.  That dominating victory meant that all 12 of their wins have been by 12 or more points.  They are also playing their best down the stretch with margins of victory in reverse of 30, 17, 14, 12 and 17 points.  Though the offense gets the ink, it’s the defense that has been even more consistent. They enter with the #1 defense in the league allowing just 17/275 and a league-best 5.3 DEF YPPS.  Last week, against the outmanned Steelers, the Chiefs were just as dominant.  After Pittsburgh scored on a fumble 6 to start the game, QB Mahomes led them to 5 TDs in less than a quarter of action.  They outgained the Steelers 478-257.  As well as the Buffalo defense has performed, it should be noted that, in their 7 home games during their winning streak,  the Chiefs have allowed less than 12 PPG on defense.  Here is your double FCB:  KC HC Reid has a record of 33-18 ATS as +3 to -3 and Mahomes is 7-2 SU in the Playoffs.

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 The  POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS GUEST HANDICAPPERS 

The Pointspread Prognosis staff and readers thank the Vegas Beard for his 16-11 ATS (59%) record for NFL Teasers this season.  Looking to improve on that record, the Vegas Beard offers these selections for the NFL Wild Card Round.

The Vegas Beard’s … PRO TEASER(S) of the Week  (16-11)

A solid winner and a big loser in a teaser doesn’t get the prize!  And the less said about my two losing teams, New England and Phoenix, the better.  I thought playoff teams were supposed to be good and that the games were supposed to be close and very competitive.  Well, I just saw a couple of playoff games that stunk!  I thought Jacksonville or Houston was playing.  UGH.

PRO PLAYOFF TEASER OF THE WEEK:  CINCY +9 and BUFFALO +8 1/2

NOTE:  I very much like San Fran +11 1/2 in teasers this week but I am afraid of mid-January weather in Green Bush.  The locals are used to it but you can’t say the same for the visitors.  Maybe it will be a nice day, 20-25 above and clear and not windy and not snowing.  Maybe and HA-HA.

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CFB “KEEP ON TRACKIN’”  

Category  % since  L3Y  2020  2021 
  2000       
Double Rushes  75% 689-176 (79.7% ATS) 161-39 (80.5% ATS) 285-76  (79%)
200 Club  74% 376-116 (76.4% ATS) 92-31 (74.8% ATS) 154-38  (80%)
+3+ Net TO Margin  89% 268-26 (91.2% ATS) 60-3 (95.2%ATS)   91-15  (86%)
+2 Net TO Margin  76% 169-53 (76.1%ATS) 66-20 (76.7% ATS) 114-31  (79%)

NFL  “Keep on Trackin’”  

Category  % since 

2000 

L4Y  2020  2021 
Play any team who outrushed their opponent by 30+ yards 75% 492-153  (76.3%) 92-33 (73.6%) 144-47  (75%)
Play any team with 30+ running attempts if opponent does not 82% 479-101   (82.6%) 97-23 (80.8%) 141-30 (82%)
PLAY AGAINST any team who rushes ball 22 or less times if foe does 82% 467-493   (83.4%) 79-19 (80.6%) 131-26 (83%)
ATS result of SU winner in games where line is 6 or less 91% 438-65   (87.1%) 105-17 (86.0%) 157-15 (91%)
Play any team with a Net TO margin of +3 or more in a game 91% 142-11   (92.8%) 22-2 (91.7%) 43-3 (94%)
Play any team with a Net TO margin of  +2 in a game 77% 299-74   (80%) 39-8 (82.9%)   62-12 (84%)

Updated 1.11.22

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INTRODUCTION

A crazy Bowl Season to say the least with COVID cancellations, opt outs, transfers, and other COVID related illness impacting rosters.  As a result of this madness, no fewer than 9 games (including tonight) has seen the line “crossover” with the original underdog transferring to favorite status.  THESE GAMES HAVE GONE 7-1 ATS.  Tonight is a great example of that with LSU opening a 2.5 point favorite and now a 7 point dog.  No fewer than 15 players are listed as OUT for the Tigers.  This was originally slated for a higher rating, but I will reduce it to the following, followed by my game analysis which was part of last Thursday’s Bowl Package.

Tuesday, Jan 4th

TEXAS BOWL

NEG Stadium      Houston, TX 

KANSAS STATE (-7) vs. LSU   9:00 PM ET 

Since Tuesday, Dec 21st, there have been 4 Bowl games in which the line has crossed over the Pickem range.  In the regular season, following this type of move, will usually lead you to the poor house.  Entering Thursday’s action, there are two more games of this ilk, Tennessee and Michigan State.  The first 4 of those however, have all cashed with San Diego State winning 38-24, Western Michigan winning 52-24, Houston winning 17-13, and Maryland winning 54-10.  In other words, late money, usually reflecting injuries, opt outs, or other late news, has been like gold.  Time will tell how Tennessee and Michigan State do on Thursday.  At this writing, three other games have “crossed over”.  On Saturday, it was Arkansas and Kentucky.  In this game, it is Kansas State that has moved from a 2.5 underdog to a current line of -3.  Meaningful reasons for this move include the LSU firing of Orgeron.  All he could do was lead them to the National Title with a 15-0 SU record two years ago.  But 11-11 SU since then was simply not good enough.  As a result, they lured former Notre Dame HC Kelly to the bayou.  Coaching in the interim will be OL Coach Brad Davis.  In the meantime, there have been multiple defections opting out of this contest for the Tigers, including their starting QB. That’s on top of a lengthy injury list.  If you are looking for a potential “no show”, this could be your team.  It is unlikely that will be the case for blue collar Kansas State.  HC Klieman has continued in that tradition since the retirement of legendary former HC Snyder.  Motivated by consecutive losses when QB Thompson missed the final two games, I expect his return to be a major motivating factor.  He is flanked by RB Vaughn who averages 5.8 YPR.  As a result, we are backing the workman-like team with the better running game and the better defense.

SPECIAL BOWL EDITION FOR THURSDAY, DEC 30th 

These games will be rated and released as Penthouse Picks 10:00 AM ET on Thursday

Next Bowl analysis by 4:00 PM ET Thursday.

Thursday, Dec 30th

MAYO BOWL 

Bank of America Stadium    Charlotte,  NC  

NORTH CAROLINA (-9) vs. South Carolina  11:30 AM ET 

Notable year-over-year improvement for a Gamecock team who was 2-8 SU LY but ascended to 6-6 SU this season.  That included wins over Florida and Auburn, a pair of troubled programs, in the last half of the season prior to a 30-0 shutout by rival Clemson in the finale.  Under 1st year HC Beamer, are they “just happy to be here”?  This line would have approached 3 TDs were it early September.  But North Carolina so greatly underachieved, at 6-6 SU, -60 AFP, that this price may be a bargain, even though it opened 4 points lower.  Much like the Gamecocks, they close the year with a rivalry loss at NC State.   This will not be a highly rated game because the defensive advantage of the underdog, who played a 20 point harder schedule, is significant with defensive edges of 8 points and 52 yards.  Clear advantage for the ‘Heels however, comes with the veteran leadership of HC Brown and the vast experience of QB Howell, who may view this as an NFL audition.   The bottom line is this is a Tar Heel “200 Club:” offense that has a huge advantage of 15 points, 158 YPG and 1.7 OYPPL diff against an SEC counterpart.

MUSIC CITY BOWL

Nissan Stadium   Nashville, TN

TENNESSEE (-6) vs. Purdue   3:00 PM ET 

The 65 point OVER/UNDER number is a full touchdown higher than where this game opened. That move may still not be enough.  This figures to be the highest scoring game of the day.  Once Purdue HC Brohm settled on QB O’Connell (74% C, 23/8 ratio), the Purdue offense began to purr.  For the season, through the airways, they averaged 341 PYPG and 7.7 OYPPS.  Unfortunately for the Boilers, their top talent, WR Bell, and a defensive counterpart, DE Karlaftis, will miss this contest.  The improvement for Purdue from 2-4 SU last year to 8-4 SU this, is certainly noticeable.  The upward movement for Tennessee from 3-7 SU LY to 7-5 SU this year is equally impressive.  Credit goes to 1st year HC Heupel who, in his 3 previous seasons at UCF, recorded a 28-8 SU mark and a trio of “200 Club” offensive seasons.  He repeated those numbers with his Vols averaging 39 PPG, up significantly from the 22/347 of LY.  Once he settled on signal caller QB Hooker (VA Tech) instead of QB Milton (Michigan), the offense took wings.  Only against the rugged defenses of SEC opponents Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama and Georgia did they score fewer than 34 points.  Purdue may put on a bit of an aerial show, but the GREATER OFFENSIVE BALANCE OF THE VOLS will lead to a “200 Club” performance and a 75% chance to beat the spread, see “Keep on Trackin’”.   Finally, note that Tennessee has won their last 4 Bowl games, all against BIG 10 opposition, and that they will have a notable home field advantage playing in Nashville. 

PEACH BOWL 

Mercedes Benz Stadium Atlanta, GA   

MICHIGAN STATE  (-3) vs. Pittsburgh 7:00 PM ET 

Sharp money moved this game from Pitt (-4) to Michigan State (-3). This means they find it of greater importance that the Panthers have lost OC Whipple and QB Pickett rather than the Spartans loss of RB Walker.  When first handicapping the game, it appeared that Pickett would “pick apart” a Spartan’s pass defense that allows 338/7.3, and that the Panther rush defense, allowing 91/2.7, could do a decent job shutting down Walker.  That dynamic has now changed significantly as Pickett’s replacement, QB Patti, has nowhere near the credentials or experience.  For the Panthers, HC Narduzzi has not made these Post Season Parties a priority with a 1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS Bowl record.  The Spartans have an opposite recent record of 7-1 ATS in Bowls and a newly inked HC Tucker who will be eager to prove his worth.   

LAS VEGAS BOWL 

Allegiant Stadium   Las Vegas, NV 

WISCONSIN  (-6)  vs. Arizona State  10:30 PM ET 

This is a pair of teams that could be diametrically prepared for this Bowl game.  Even though the site edge favors Arizona State, that may well be their only advantage.  The Sun Devils averaged 204/5.3 overland for the year.  Today however, they will be without RBs Trayanum and White and missing their best OL.  The same is true of a defense that will be missing two key components in the secondary.  Victories over USC and UCLA were highlights for the Sun Devils.  But they lost by 10 at BYU, 14 at Utah, 13 vs. Washington State, and 14 at Oregon State.  Each of those teams had success running the football against the Sun Devils.  And what does Wisconsin want to do?  Of course, run the football.  The Badgers were on a 7-0 SU run led by a ground game fueled by RB Allen, who averaged 7.1 YPR.  That all came to a screeching halt, with a season-ending loss at Minnesota, leaving them hungry for redemption.  HC Cryst takes these Post Season Parties seriously as evidenced by his 5-1 SU, ATS record.   Without the Devils two best runners, they will be hard-pressed to dent the dish against the Badgers top rated rush defense allowing just 66/2.2.  Badgers should equally thwart the AZ State passing game with their Top 10 pass defense.  Staying with a tried and true philosophy, we back the better running game and the better defense at less than a TD price.

 Look for more on Thursday, Dec 30th

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CFB “KEEP ON TRACKIN’” 

Category  % since  L3Y  2020  2021
  2000       
Double Rushes  75% 689-176 (79.7% ATS) 161-39 (80.5% ATS) 285-76  (79%)
200 Club  74% 376-116 (76.4% ATS) 92-31 (74.8% ATS) 154-38  (80%)
+3+ Net TO Margin  89% 268-26 (91.2% ATS) 60-3 (95.2%ATS)   91-15  (86%)
+2 Net TO Margin  76% 169-53 (76.1%ATS) 66-20 (76.7% ATS) 114-31  (79%)

NFL  “Keep on Trackin’” 

Category  % since 

2000 

L4Y  2020  2021
Play any team who outrushed their opponent by 30+ yards 75% 492-153  (76.3%) 92-33 (73.6%) 118-38  (76%)
Play any team with 30+ running attempts if opponent does not 82% 479-101   (82.6%) 97-23 (80.8%)   113-27  (81%)
PLAY AGAINST any team who rushes ball 22 or less times if foe does 82% 467-493   (83.4%) 79-19 (80.6%) 110-21  (84%)
ATS result of SU winner in games where line is 6 or less 91% 438-65   (87.1%) 105-17 (86.0%) 134-12  (92%)
Play any team with a Net TO margin of +3 or more in a game 91% 142-11   (92.8%) 22-2 (91.7%)    35-1  (97%)
Play any team with a Net TO margin of  +2 in a game 77% 299-74   (80%) 39-8 (82.9%)    48-9  (84%)

Updated 12.21.21

_______________________________________________________________ 

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Next release Joe Gavazzi’s POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS, Wednesday, Dec 29th by 4:00 PM ET

 

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College FB Articles from Joe Gavazzi
Each title below is a link to the Article

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What Our Clients Have to Say

Hey Joe don’t sweat the slime that gave you crap yesterday. Let me tell you, your RATS article really opened my eyes. Since the start of college basketball I’ve made close to 20g making 100/125/150 bets, for 6% I go to 200.  If I’m up, that number goes up. 20 fucking thousand brother! Tax free my friend. You know what I did with that? I took 12k and paid off my 2016 corvette!!! Yea man, that’s no bullshit. Paid that beast off!! Mine all mine!! You saved me 2years of payments. I gave 2k to the wife and put 3k aside for YOU for my next yearly subscription!!! The rest is in my pocket. If I have to give some back to the bookie,  so what. This has been the best run I’ve ever been on.If I ever go to Pittsburg I’m looking you up. Lunch is definitely on me! Keep doing what your doing. Don’t let the curmudgeons bring you down!!

Let me say this too…. Thank you Joe!

– Mike Di

Hey Joe, I take the good with the bad. Last night sucked but what can you do? You have been fantastic this season. Let’s get back on the right side of things. Thanks for the hard work!!

-James R

Joe after this season, I paid off my Harley, gave me wife $10,000 to go shopping and have plenty of fun money left over.

-Mike R

Keep up the good work and ignore the whiners. You are doing an awesome job!

-Greg S.

Joe… Thanks for the great coll hoop year.  I paid off my Harley, gave my wife $10,000 (gotta keep her happy) and went on a golf trip with my buddies.  Can’t wait to do it again with you.

-Paul.S.

Joe… MLB had a great run this year and made paying for that expensive family vacation a whole lot less painful.  Can’t wait for football.

-Mike R.

Joe… You are the most consistent solid handicapper who I count on year after year.  Nice run, Joe but you know I’m not surprised.  Virtually every year I have been with you since the early 90s there has been a 60% run of 200 or more games.  You may just be the GOAT at College hoop capping.

-Steve P

Nice “All Sport Run” as you call it, Joe.  Thanks!  My new part time job is finding more “outs”!

-JB

Great December   I feel like I’m stealing.  The lifetime annual fee I paid is like pocket change.

-Mark S