joegavazzisports

CFB... “Because you can’t know where you are going, unless you know where you have been!”

Every August I present a list of NCAA FB teams who have underperformed in the previous season and are expected to BOUNCE BACK BIG in the current campaign. In the past, these teams have had an extraordinary history of success both SU and ATS. They are presented, for your ease of use, in conference. "Joe's Blog" will be updated weekly. Make sure you subscribe to receive all the latest and current information

CBKB... Joe Gavazzi’s NCAA Basketball Picks are legendary.

Joe's selections dominate early soft lines and turn March into Magic with his Proprietary RATS Theory, combined with key statistical indicators. It is why Joe is the All Time Net Winner in Basketball Profits.

There are 250 CBKB teams which have regularly posted lines with an average of 12 (viable) players on each team. That means there are 3000 players in our “universe”. Transitioning one’s ratings from year-to-year was normally challenging enough in the past when integrating graduation losses with incoming players. Today’s environment makes it even more challenging. With new transfer rules, there are 750 to 1000 TRANSFERS EACH YEAR. THAT IS A 25% to 33% ROSTER TURNOVER, ON AVERAGE, IN TRANSFERS ALONE. This makes it virtually impossible to accurately assess a team in the early season.

NCAAB 10-3 ATS

NBA… THIS IS HOW WE DO IT!

The NBA is a long and grueling grind. It normally exceeds 100 games for teams in the NBA Finals. As a result, what happens in the first couple months of the season is often not indicative of the current form of the team. Injuries, trades and chemistry can change tremendously through the course of the season. THAT IS WHY THE BEST WAY TO HANDICAP THE NBA IS WITH A RECENCY MODEL. I use two Recency Models. One is based on the highly successful RAT Model I built for CBKB handicapping. The other is a computer based model which isolates current form. Together, these will isolate our daily plays which will perform as well as any you can find.

Once the NBA Playoffs begin, it’s a whole new ballgame. The Recency Models are again indicative, but with teams playing the same opponent for as long as a 7 game set, it is important to understand the value of the Zig/Zag Model. Simply stated, it means playing ON the team who lost the previous game of the series. Though this simple idea normally provides nominal profit, there are key parameters and tighteners which push this level of success to over 60%.

MLB…THIS IS HOW WE DO IT!

With the advent of the 2002 movie “Money Ball”, sabermetric handicapping has become a major part of a handicapper’s analysis when betting the bases. Since that time, I used just about every metric available in search of a methodology which would provide consistent winners. In the final analysis, I emerged with my “OPS Theory of MLB Handicapping”.

This OPS Theory, simplified, is the sum of a team’s OPS batting, plus the inverse to 1.000, of a team’s pitching. After ranking these numbers for each team from 1-30, I then compare it to the W/L rank of each MLB team. When there is a difference of 5 or more positions, we have a play. That is to say, a PLAY ON a team if their OPS rank is 5 points superior to their W/L rank, and PLAY AGAINST a team if their OPS rank is 5 points inferior to their W/L rank. As a subjective opinion, I compare the bullpen OPS rank of each team.

In OPS, a walk counts one for on-base and zero for slugging, while any hit counts one for on base and the number of bases for slugging. So counting both OBA and SLG, a single counts 2 and a homer 5. These are in about the same proportion as in linear weights. That is why OPS works almost as well.

I perform the operation of OPS rankings every Monday and Thursday morning prior to the start of each new series. That is why you often see the same teams on the selection sheet in consecutive days. When plays are mutually exclusive, I immediately exclude them from consideration. In addition, I break down the plays into 4 distinct classifications.

ON home teams

ON away teams

AGAINST home teams

AGAINST away teams

What about pitching? Of course it is important! But starting pitching is accurately reflected in the line, my OPS Model includes pitching, and the Bullpen OPS is now worth 33% of the pitching handicap.

As a further consideration, I EXCLUDE money line plays where the line is more than 1.50. Games where the line is more than 1.50 are included as run line selections only when my run line chart, which I update daily, shows that a PLAY ON or PLAY AGAINST team qualifies in an over 80% situation.

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