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CAVEAT EMPTOR

By Joe Gavazzi    JoeGavazziSports.com

Each year thousands of Football betting enthusiasts begin a summer ritual of reviewing the past performance of each CFB team and making their judgements and analysis of how each team will do in the upcoming Football Season.  In recent seasons, this work has been made much easier by the fact that there are published numbers regarding past performance for each team, as well as coaching changes, the status of the QB position, and the returning starters.  In more recent seasons there has been data compiled regarding recruiting ranks and the success or failure of teams in the transfer portal.  This makes the Preseason analysis of teams a bit more simplified.  Having said that however, we must realize that the linemakers of the world have access to that same information, as well as so much more information concerning the Preseason preparation of each team.  In summation, while we are eager to make our opening week wagers on or against teams that we believe may be 7 or even 10 points better or worse than the previous year, the linemaker is making the same adjustments in the betting line.  In short, BUYER BEWARE!  Your Week #1 wagering opportunities may be doing nothing more than replicating the work the linemaker has already done.  Best way to determine this is by using reliable power ratings from the end of the previous season to determine what the closing line would have been last year, and then compare it to this year’s Game #1 send out, and your own season-over-season conclusions.  

AAC (American Athletic Conference)

The 2023 season for the AAC found the conference in the middle of the musical chairs that is resulting in conference realignment.  They lost 3 of their best football programs, Cincinnati, UCF and Houston to the BIG 12.  On the other side of the coin, making this a 14 team league, is the addition of UTSA, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, UAB, Rice and Charlotte.  Only UTSA at 9-4 SU was able to make the successful transition as the other 5 teams logged a combined 22-39 SU season.  Again this year, it could well be possible that only UTSA finds its way to the winning side of the ledger.

Before I begin my team-by-team analysis, there will be a chart that recaps last year’s record, current coach and QB information, as well as returning experience and recruiting information.   This will consist of 10 columns as titled forthwith.

Team’s SU record for the previous year

Team’s ATS record for the previous year

This year’s Head Coach

Coaching experience:  Asterisk signifies a new coach while a / separates the number of years from coaching here vs. his career.

Projected starting QB

QB starts.  Asterisk means no collegiate starts; T = transfer from LY

Recruiting rank

Transfer portal rank

Returning production rank

Team experience

Forthwith is the chart for each of the AAC teams followed by individual team analysis based on projected order of finish.

UTSA

HC Traylor enters his 5th year as head man of the Road Runners with a record of 39-14 SU.  Considering that UTSA was 26-46 SU in the previous 6 years, I’d say it was quite a turnaround.  Now let’s see what happens without QB Harris who, last season, returned for his 7th year!  Some questioned how the Runners would do in their ascent from CUSA to the AAC in 2023.  Just fine, thank you with a record of 9-4 SU overall and 7-1 SU in the AAC, running Traylor’s conference record to an amazing 24-2 SU L3Y.  They are also 23-3 SU in their Alamodome home under Traylor.  They capped off the season with a 35-17 Bowl win vs. Marshall after losing the AAC Title Game to Tulane.  It was the 1st Bowl victory for the UTSA program.  This year, Traylor will most probably hand the reins to QB McCown who, after 4 starts at Colorado in 2022, led the Runners to the Bowl victory.  Reason for concern may be the dip in the recruiting to bottom 15 status.  Yet the Runners still appear to be the class of the league.

Tulane

What a revival under former HC Willie Fritz in the last two seasons for the Green Wave.  After a mediocre record of 31-43 SU in the previous 6 years, the Wave recorded a combined record of 23-5 SU L2Y.  As predicted, however, that 12-2 ATS record of 2022 left them overpriced last season when they recorded a 5-9 ATS mark.  Unfortunately, the season ended with consecutive losses to SMU in the Playoffs and VA Tech in the Bowl game.  Much of the credit for success in the last two seasons was a defense that allowed a combined 21/343, solid marks considering the offensive tendencies of this conference.  Hoping to continue their revival, Tulane summoned former Troy HC Sumrall to travel 300 miles southwest from Troy where his Trojans went 23-5 SU the previous 2 seasons.  With similar defensive schemes, look for the Waves defensive success to continue.  Sumrall brings the gang (read OC and DC) with him to the Big Easy.   They will no doubt miss the leadership of last year’s QB Pratt hailed as arguably the best in Tulane history.  Adding to the 15 returning starters, however, is a transfer portal haul which includes QB Thompson from Oregon as well as top receivers from USC, Alabama and LSU.  That solidifies an offense which makes Tulane a legitimate challenger to UTSA, despite the fact these teams are not scheduled to play each other in 2024.  

Memphis

Though I have UTSA and Tulane listed above these Tigers in projected order of finish, it is Memphis which may indeed have the most talent of any team in the league.  Yet they are listed behind these teams because of two reasons.  First off, they must travel to face each UTSA and Tulane in 2 of their last 4 games this season.  It will not be surprising if a Memphis offense, led by QB Hennigan with 37 career starts, that vies to match the 39/453 numbers of the 2023 season which included over 300 PYPG.  The 2nd major question mark, as it has been in each of the 4 years under 5th year HC Silverfield, is a defense which, during his tenure has allowed 28/407 on the stop side.  Again this season, the Tigers will be exciting to watch.  But do not be surprised if they mimic HC Silverfield’s mark of 10-20 ATS as chalk and just 12-20 ATS in conference play.  Make this team prove it on defense before you back their explosive offense with your hard-earned money.  

South Florida

Here is yet another team whose much publicized success and plethora of returning starters (18) may leave them to be overpriced following their 7-6 SU/ATS season of last.  Why was that so impressive?  Simply because in the previous 4 years, prior to the arrival in 2023 of now 2nd year HC Golesh, the Bulls had raged to a 4-29 SU mark the previous 3 seasons.  Nonetheless, coming off the feel-good Bowl win by 45-0 vs. Syracuse, and with 18 returning starters, there is good reason to consider this Top 10 experienced team could possibly get to the positive side of the ledger once again in 2024.  With 15 starts, including every game in 2023, QB Brown had 65% C, a 26/11 ratio, and rushed for 809 yards.  He leads an offense that is the “real deal” and could well surpass the 32/424 numbers of last season.  Although the Bulls did improve by 9 points and 93 yards on their defense from the previous season, it is this unit which must continue to improve if they are to challenge for league supremacy this season.  

East Carolina

Is it a bounce back year for the Pirates after the highly disappointing 2-10 SU season of last?  That could well be the case considering that ECU had a combined record of 15-10 SU, 15-9 ATS the previous 2 campaigns in which they averaged 32/402 on offense.  Might be some great value here considering that 6th year HC Houston coached James Madison to an FCS Title during his tenure at Harrisonburg.  Key to last year’s struggle was a team that returned just 10 starters and greatly underachieved on offense dropping 16 points and 77 yards from their 2022 numbers.  Combination of this year’s 14 returning starters, along with a far easier schedule that does not find either Memphis, Tulane or USF among their challengers, implies that the Pirates are in line to potentially bounce back big.  Much of that success may come as a result of the addition of transfer QB Garcia who has spun his wares at both Miami and Missouri in previous seasons.  Often times a more mature signal caller who steps into shallower waters proves to be successful.  With 4 RS returning on an O line who combine for 80 starts, the Pirates offense will significantly improve this season.  

Florida Atlantic

More was expected from 2nd year HC Herman when he inherited 19 returning starters and had the benefit of successful head coaching careers at Houston and Texas where he was a combined 58-30 SU.  Chances of a step forward in year 2 may be slim as Herman lost 20 players in the transfer portal, has a bottom 15 RPR, and only 4 starters returning to an offense that averaged just 314 YPG in 2023.  In addition, there is little momentum as the Owls dumped their last 4 games of 2023 with an 0-4 SU/ATS record averaging only 9 PPG in their last 3 contests.  Ergo the reason for the 20 lost players in the portal?  Hopes of an offensive revival are pinned on the arm of Marshall transfer QB Fancher who had 65% C but just an 11/11 ratio.  Owl success likely to be a function of an improved defense that returns 8.  Please note, however, Herman is just 11-24 ATS as home chalk.

North Texas

2nd year HC Morris inherited a team that played in the CUSA Title Game in 2022.  But they struggled stepping up to the level of competition.  Running an average of 79 plays/game resulted in a 35 PPG offense.  But it was the defense that was their Achilles heel allowing 216 or more on both offense and defense and 37 PPG.  The off season was a merry-go-round for the Mean Green as they lost 25 players and signed 21.  Most notable addition is QB Chandler Morris, a TCU transfer who last season, in 9 starts, had a 66% C and 16/5 ratio.  One might expect an improved defense considering they are led by 2nd year DC Caponi who was on the defensive staff at Iowa State, a traditionally solid defensive team.  With all the changes, it is tough to know which direction the Mean Green will head this year.  

UAB

Winning a Super Bowl, being an analyst for 10 years at ESPN, and winning State Titles while coaching Lipscomb Academy does not necessarily qualify one for success as an FBS head coach. Perhaps we can pardon HC Dilfer considering he had just 8 returning starters in 2023 which led to a 4-8 SU mark.  Yet that was most unsettling for the UAB fan base who was used to success such as the 43-26 SU record of the 6 years prior to Dilfer’s arrival.  To the surprise of almost no one, Dilfer’s first team was successful on offense at 30/434 but was horrendous on the stop side of the ball allowing 37/424, including 40 or more points on 7 occasions.  Though we could look for improvement on both sides of the ball, and have an easier schedule, getting to the winning side of the ledger would be a major accomplishment.

Rice

Slow but steady progress continues for Rice and 7th year HC Bloomgren.  Last season, they went from a -9 MOV to a +2 MOV with only a Bowl loss to Texas State the difference between a winning and losing season.  The Owls struggled to rush the football last season averaging just 110/3.7.  But with the return of 4 OL and RB Conners who averaged 6.4 YPR, Bloomgren believes it could be the Owls best running year ever.  The offense will most likely be led by Temple transfer QB Warner who has a total of 20 collegiate starts.  He will be challenged by QB Pagent who has 6 starts here L2Y.  As the Owls potentially ascend against the manageable schedule, note Bloomgren’s dichotomous role mark at Rice Stadium where he is 4-9 ATS as home chalk but 13-7 ATS as home dog.  

Army

Stepping up to a more difficult schedule of the AAC may be a bit problematic for an Army team who was 6-6 SU each of the L2Y after a combined mark of 18-7 SU the previous 2 seasons.  They do enter the season on the heels of a 4-0 SU finish to 2023 which includes victories over Air Force and Navy for the CIC Trophy.  The previous 3 seasons, Army has allowed an average of just 22/350 YPG.  With just 3 starters returning to that side of the ball and a bottom 5 returning production mark on defense, that unit could prove to be the Achilles heel for the Black Knights this season.  With the rule change 2 years ago regarding “cut blocks” on offense, Army has vacillated in their desire to improve the passing game, and returning to their successful triple option.  As a result, the ground game declined from an average of 281 RYPG, the previous 3 seasons, to just 209/4.4 in 2023.  Good news for the offense is the return of starting QB Daily who had 10 starts LY and rushed for 900 yards.  I see the uncertainty of the Army offensive attack and an inexperienced defense against a tougher schedule.  Meaning the Knights take a potential step backward this season against a far more difficult schedule.

Navy

The fortunes of the Middies have declined from their 11-2 SU 2019 season to a record of just 16-30 SU the previous 4 years.  The first year under HC Newberry, the former 4 year DC both here and at Kennesaw, led to a continual decline in Navy’s offensive fortunes.  In 3 of the previous 4 years, they have averaged 20 or less PPG, less than 300 YPG, and in 2023, declined to 195/4.3 overland.  Starting 4 different signal callers was a major contributing factor.  The never say die Middies however, are buoyed by the addition of OC Cronic who led Mercer to the nation’s rushing title at 360 RYPG last season with his “Wing T Spread” attack.  Though Navy returns 7 starters on each side of the ball, improvement will be greatly limited by bottom rankings in both recruiting and the portal.  With improved health in the QB room, the potential for offensive improvement exists with returning signal caller QB Horvath, 183/4.9 rushing, getting the first nod at leading the offense.

Charlotte

49ers first season under HC Poggi replicated the 3-9 SU mark of 2022.  There was decline in the offense by 6 points and 93 yards but improvement in the defense by 10 points and 119 yards.  This year, 13 returning starters will look to improve on each side of the ball.  HC Poggi is the former hedge fund investor, and HC at the Gilman School where he won 13 State Crowns in 19 years.  None of that success translated to the football field for the 49ers.  Looking for instant improvement, Poggi rushed to the transfer portal where time will tell if he had decent success.  The first instance of that may result from QB Max Brown, a Florida transfer being more successful in a smaller pond.  The Niners may show modest improvement on each side of the ball but you should wait for a “buy sign” before rushing in to put down your hard-earned gold on the 49ers this season.

Tulsa

Look for the 2 year struggles to continue for a current team that is just 9-15 SU, 7-15 ATS the previous 2 seasons.  In the first year under former Indiana HC Wilson, 5 returning starters on each side of the ball had a -11 MOV and -65 YPG.  Bolstering the coaching room, Wilson has added Steve Spurrier, Jr as an Associate HC and QB Coach Dennis to spice up the offense that returns 8 players, including red shirt frosh Francis and QB Legas, the former Utah State starter.  Offensive improvement would not surprise.  But until the 34/437 defense, which returns just 5 starters, shows improvement, it is likely the Golden Hurricane could be blown away once again when stepping up in class as they were 4 times last year with losses of 33, 49, 32 and 59 points.  

Temple

A -20 Net TO margin last year was not the only reason the Owls downward spiral continued.  They are just 10-33 SU the previous 4 years with a trio of consecutive 3-9 SU seasons of late.  3rd year HC Drayton was responsible for the last 2 of those.  Just 5 returning starters on each side of the ball, bottom 15 recruiting rank, and bottom 5 returning production and experience imply this will be the 5th consecutive losing campaign for Temple.  A less experienced QB room with probable Rutgers transfer QB Simon getting the first crack at leading the offense, make it another “rebuilding season” in North Philly.