A Unique Perspective on Run Line Wagering in MLB 

A Unique Perspective on Run Line Wagering in MLB 

Final results through August 31st, 2018

By Joe Gavazzi




Dating to 2010 I have tracked the result of every MLB game, home and away, by margin of victory of 2 runs or more. With 9 years of data in the review mirror there is one salient conclusion that can be made: 


Because the home team does not bat in the bottom of the 9th if leading, and the road team is always looking to secure as large a lead after batting in their half of the 9th inning, the 9 year average shows road teams to win a game by 2 or more runs 74% of the time while home teams win a game by 2 or more runs, 68% of the time. 

In the previous 2 years, however, that is, 2017 and 2018 these Runline results have increased to an average of 72.7% of the games.

The question often asked is to how I use this run line data. I first handicap the contest with a basis of the handicapping being my OPS rankings (see separate article on this site), I then check the betting line and my MLB 80% team trends to see if I can turn a favored team into an underdog price. When that happens I feel comfortable making it a run line play. 

Listed below are the final records through August 2018  for any team whose Runline record in the stated category is 80% or higher.

Cincinnati…   48/57  ALL WINS


Mets . . .                23/28 HOME WINS

Washington… 28/33  HOME WINS

Arizona…        28/35  HOME WINS

Boston…         40/48  HOME WINS

Texas…           25/29  HOME WINS


Cubs…            30/35  AWAY WINS

Houston…      41/47  AWAY WINS


Milwaukee…  22/26  HOME LOSSES

Colorado…     25/230  HOME LOSSES

San Diego…   34/42  HOME LOSSES

NYY…                19/23  HOME LOSSES

Minnesota…   25/28  HOME LOSSES

Oakland. . .         22/27 HOME LOSSES


Atlanta…        25/29 AWAY LOSSES

Miami …           35/43 AWAY LOSSES

Boston…          20/25 AWAY LOSSES

Toronto…       34/40 AWAY LOSSES

LAA …                 28/35 AWAY LOSSES

Texas…            31/36 AWAY LOSSES





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