A Unique Perspective on Run Line Wagering in MLB
By Joe Gavazzi
This article will be updated with current MLB run line information from time to time, as the season progresses. Preceding the pertinent run line numbers will be a discussion of the run line methodology employed.
Dating to 2010 I have tracked the result of every MLB game, home and away, by margin of victory of 2 runs or more. With 8 years of data in the review mirror there is one salient conclusion that can be made:
MLB TEAMS WIN THE GAME BY 2 OR MORE RUNS 70% OF THE TIME
Because the home team does not bat in the bottom of the 9th if leading, and the road team is always looking to secure as large a lead after batting in their half of the 9th inning, the 8 year average shows road teams to win a game by 2 or more runs 73% of the time while home teams win a game by 2 or more runs, 67% of the time.
As I update this article throughout the course of the season I will list teams who THIS CURRENT SEASON are winning, or losing games by 2 or more runs 80% of the time, thus giving us a comfortable margin for error. My proprietary data in prior years allows me to see which of these current trends are a continuation of the past season or seasons for specific teams.
The question often asked is to how I use this run line data. I first handicap the contest with a basis of the handicapping being my OPS rankings (see separate article on this site), I then check the betting line and my MLB 80% team trends to see if I can turn a favored team into an underdog price. When that happens I feel comfortable making it a run line play.
The following are the run line records for teams, home or away, who are either winning or losing their games by 2 or more runs. Please pay special attention to the specifics (such as home, away, or all) when using this data.
Thru Monday May 14, 2018 the following teams have won or lost in a specific category by 2 or more runs 80% of the time. Minimum 10 game sample.
Pittsburgh… 16 of 19 losses by 2 or more runs