A Unique Perspective on Run Line Wagering in MLB 

A Unique Perspective on Run Line Wagering in MLB 

By Joe Gavazzi

www.joegavazzisports.com                   

winningsportsadvice@gmail.com

724-715-7186

This article will be updated with current MLB run line information from time to time, as the season progresses. Preceding the pertinent run line numbers will be a discussion of the run line methodology employed. 

Dating to 2010 I have tracked the result of every MLB game, home and away, by margin of victory of 2 runs or more. With 8 years of data in the review mirror there is one salient conclusion that can be made: 

MLB TEAMS WIN THE GAME BY 2 OR MORE RUNS 70% OF THE TIME 

Because the home team does not bat in the bottom of the 9th if leading, and the road team is always looking to secure as large a lead after batting in their half of the 9th inning, the 8 year average shows road teams to win a game by 2 or more runs 73% of the time while home teams win a game by 2 or more runs, 67% of the time. 

As I update this article throughout the course of the season I will list teams who THIS CURRENT SEASON are winning, or losing games by 2 or more runs 80% of the time, thus giving us a comfortable margin for error. My proprietary data in prior years allows me to see which of these current trends are a continuation of the past season or seasons for specific teams. 

The question often asked is to how I use this run line data. I first handicap the contest with a basis of the handicapping being my OPS rankings (see separate article on this site), I then check the betting line and my MLB 80% team trends to see if I can turn a favored team into an underdog price. When that happens I feel comfortable making it a run line play. 

The following are the run line records for teams, home or away, who are either winning or losing their games by 2 or more runs. Please pay special attention to the specifics (such as home, away, or all) when using this data. 

Run line update for Tuesday, June 26, 2018

In the last 4 weeks, 283 out of 373 MLB games (75.9%) have been well above the 70% average of the previous 8 years.  The YTD record is now 844 out of 1167 wins decided by 2 or more runs (72.3%).  Home teams have far exceeded their long term 67% average with 71.3% of all home victories coming by 2 or more runs.

 

We use the chart below, all of which have 10 or more results with a winning average of 80% or more, to consider the run line bet whenever the handicapping model suggests a play.  In that way, we change favorites into underdogs, in most cases, with a 72.3% overall YTD average to get the money.

Run line update for Tuesday, July 3, 2018

 

Last week run line results returned to the norm with 67 out of 94 wins (71.3%) were decided by 2 or more runs. That brings the YTD record to 911 /1261 MLB victories (72.2%) by 2 or more runs.  The reason this is more than 2% higher than the previous 8 year average is that despite last week’s return to the norm, in the previous 5 weeks, 350 out of 467 (74.9%) were by 2 or more runs.

 

We use the chart below, all of which have 10 or more results with a winning average of 80% or more, to consider the run line bet whenever the handicapping model suggests a play.  In that way, we change favorites into underdogs, in most cases, with a 72.2% overall YTD average to get the money.

Run line update for Tuesday, July 17, 2018 thru MLB All Star Break

 

Last week’s run line results were again above the norm with 66 out of 86 wins (76.7%) decided by 2 or more runs. That brings the YTD record to 1048 /1443 MLB victories (72.6%) by 2 or more runs.  The 72.6% YTD average is more than 2% above the 8 year norm, in no small part because the 7 week run has now found 75% of all MLB victories to be by 2 or more runs in that time period.

 

We use the chart below, all of which have 10 or more results with a winning average of 80% or more, to consider the run line bet whenever the handicapping model suggests a play.  In that way, we change favorites into underdogs, in most cases, with a 72.6% overall YTD average to get the money.

 

For the week beginning Monday, July 16, 2018, there are 21 examples of MLB teams, in the given role as stated below, who have won or lost their games by 2 or more runs.

 

Minnesota…   39/44  ALL WINS

Cincinnati…   36/43  ALL WINS

 

Washington… 18/22  HOME WINS

Arizona…       21/26  HOME WINS

Cleveland…    25/31  HOME WINS

Boston…         30/34  HOME WINS

 

NY Mets…     16/20  AWAY WINS

Cubs…            25/27  AWAY WINS

Houston…      29/32  AWAY WINS

 

Texas…           45/56  ALL LOSSES

 

Philadelphia…            14/16  HOME LOSSES

Miami…          23/28  HOME LOSSES

Milwaukee…  15/18  HOME LOSSES

Colorado…     20/23  HOME LOSSES

San Diego…   26/30  HOME LOSSES

Minnesota…   18/21  HOME LOSSES

KC…              28/35  HOME LOSSES

 

Atlanta…        19/22 AWAY LOSSES

Toronto…       22/27 AWAY LOSSES

LAA…            20/25 AWAY LOSSES

Oakland…      18/21 AWAY LOSSES

 

Next update Tuesday afternoon, July 24th

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