HOW TO WIN USING THE OPS NUMBERS
By Joe Gavazzi Winning Sports Advice
The heart and soul of my fundamental handicapping methodology is the OPS numbers. In the previous 4 years I have written numerous articles, proving that the OPS numbers are the most accurate representation of the performance of a team or individual in MLB. They are also indicative of the future performance of a team. In other words, a team’s W/L percentage will gravitate toward my OPS ranking.
First, what is the OPS? The OPS is the combination of the OBP (On Base Percentage) and the SLG (Slugging Percentage). Every team has an OPS for hitting, pitching and relief pitching. In a similar way every player has an OPS number for his performance. The question becomes how do we use the OPS numbers to predict future performance. The object is to isolate value in the betting line. In other words, I look for teams whose OPS ranking is significantly worse (a PLAY AGAINST team) than their W/L percentage or a team who’s OPS ranking is significantly better (a Play On team), than their OPS ranking. The following paragraph outlines the exact formula.
First, I rank the teams’ W/L percentage from 1 to 30 (highest to lowest) and place that number beside the name of the team. Next, I combine the teams OPS batting number, with the teams INVERTED pitching number (remember LOWER IS BETTER for pitching) to give each team an OPS number. I then rank those numbers from 1 to 30 (highest to lowest) and place that number next to the teams W/L rank. WHEN A TEAM’S OPS RANK IS FIVE POSITIONS OR LOWER FROM THEIR W/L RANK THEY ARE A “PLAY ON” TEAM IN THE CURRENT SERIES. In a similar way, WHEN A TEAM’S OPS RANK IS FIVE POSITIONS HIGHER THEN THIER W/L RANK THEY BECOME A “PLAY AGAINST” TEAM FOR THE CURRENT SERIES.
This play on and play against rating is the best way I have found to identify value in any given series between 2 teams. This become the basis for my handicapping for the current series. From that point I can begin to incorporate OPS numbers for the starting pitcher and the bullpen.
Below is the list of play on and play against teams for the current series –
Year to date record for OPS Plays 95-73 +$2435
Check back every Monday and Thursday afternoon throughout the season for PLAY ON and PLAY AGAINST teams for the current series.