2017 The Best and Worst of MLB Run Line Teams
By Joe Gavazzi
Winning Sports Advice
April 10, 2018
Since 2010, for the last 8 years, I have tracked the results of every MLB game for each team, home and away, by margin of victory. This has allowed me to summarize, at any point in time in the season, how a team is doing in each of 4 specific categories. THE WINS AND LOSSES FOR THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES ARE BASED ON WHETHER THEY WIN OR LOSE THE GAME BY 2 OR MORE RUNS AS OPPOSED TO WINNING OR LOSING THE GAME BY EXACTLY ONE RUN. The 4 categories are:
1. Home if Win 2. Home if Lose 3 Away if Win 4. Away if Lose
Over the course of time I have found that all MLB games are decided by 2 or more runs approximately 70% of the time. Because the home team does not bat in the bottom of the 9th if they are winning, the long term record is approximately 67% for home teams and 73% for road teams. Last year I tracked the statistics through August 31, 2017. It was a year in which 73% of the games were decided by 2 or more runs, including 71% at home and 76% on the road. Home teams won the game approximately 54% of the time.
The data from the 2018 season is too minimal to include in the chart. Rather, in the chart below I will give you the best and worst of each team over a recent time frame. TO QUALIFY THE HOME TEAM MUST WIN 75% OF THEIR GAMES BY 2 OR MORE RUNS, THE ROAD TEAM MUST WIN 80% OF THEIR GAMES BY 2 OR MORE RUNS, OR THE HOME TEAM MUST LOSE 80% OF THEIR GAMES BY 2 OR MORE RUNS OR THE ROAD TEAM MUST LOSE 75% OF THEIR GAMES BY 2 OR MORE RUNS.
As the data begins to accumulate I will present more meaningful run line trends in early May for the 2018 season. Remember, you must handicap the game first. Then, refer to the run line chart to determine if your team is a viable candidate to win or lose by 2 or more runs.
|Teams||Home Record @ -1.5 Runs if Win||Home Record @ -1.5 Runs if Lose||Away Record @ -1.5 Runs if Win||Away Record @ -1.5 Runs if Lose|
|Miami||25-6 LY||17-62 L2Y|
|Cubs||66-16 L2Y||7-25 LY|
|St Louis||100-23 L3Y|
|Pittsburgh||5-26 LY||23-5 LY|
|Cincinnati||28-5 LY||8-33 LY|
|Colorado||66-15 L2Y||12-54 L2Y||6-28 L2Y|
|San Diego||28-7 LY||23-93 L3Y|
|Yankees||29-9 LY||27-6 LY|
|Boston||99-31 L3Y||19-78 L3Y||29-7 LY|
|Baltimore||8-50 L2Y||24-3 LY|
|Cleveland||28-8 LY||66-15 L2Y||6-21 LY|
|Minnesota||28-6 LY||28-138 L4Y||109-26 L4Y||7-21 LY|
|White Sox||14-56 L2Y|
|Royals||6-26 LY||128-26 L4Y||7-28 LY|
|Detroit||24-7 LY||26-101 L4Y||10-32 LY|
*107/26 (80.4%) of Houston games were decided by 2 or more runs. **58/68 (85%) Seattle losses last year were by 2 or more runs.
Please note that this is data from previous years. My experience is, is that unless the records date back to longer than a year, there is little correlation to this year’s results and previous year’s results.