1 Run Games as Predictors of Future Success
By Joe Gavazzi
Winning Sports Advice
April 4, 2018
Every wonder why a team suddenly goes from a losing to a winning record in the span of just 1 year? Some would look to improved pitching or batting. They say however, that “baseball is a game of inches.” It is that game of inches that over the span of 162 games translates into over (40) 1-Run decisions for almost every team in MLB. Being on the plus side of that record goes a long way to a team’s winning record. Conversely a negative one run record is normally an indicator of a losing season.
I charted 1-Run results for teams from the period 2014-2017. My hypothesis was that “if you had a losing record in a season” and were a negative 10 in 1-Run decisions that your record would improve the following season.
There were 9 such teams that “fit the bill.” Sure enough, 8 of the 9 teams who had a negative 10 record in 1-Run games and a losing record in that season, rebounded to have an improved record in the following year. Check out these 3 examples.
The 2014 Houston Astros went 70-92 in 2014 with a 17-28 record in 1-Run games. The next year, 2015, the Astros responded with an 86-76 mark, a full 16 games of improvement.
The 2016 Tampa Bay Rays had a dismal 63-94 record. Look no further than their 13-27 mark in 1-Run games. Sure enough, the next season the Rays rebounded for an 80-82 record, a 17 game improvement.
Finally consider last year’s Minnesota Twins. In 2016 Minnesota was a lowly 59-103. Not surprising to me was their 15-29 record in 1-Run games. All the Twins did last year was rebound for a 26 game improvement, finishing the 2017 season with an 85-77 record.
Looking for this years “Worst to First” team? Consider these two teams, one from each the National and American league.
In the NL the Phillies were a disgraceful 66-96 for the season. A major part of that may have been their record of 21-36 in 1-Run games. This year the lowly Phillies who have not won more than 73 games in any of the 4 previous seasons, are ticketed by the linemaker for 78 wins. Did they read this article before I wrote it?!
Over in the AL the Texas Rangers went 78-84 in 2017. Included in that was a record of 13-24 in 1-Run games. The linemaker does not believe there will be any improvement by the Rangers posting an over/under number of 76 wins. I disagree. Noting that in the previous 2 seasons this franchise had a combined 183 wins. Watch for the Rangers, along with the Phillies to improve on last year’s records.