The 50 Point AFP Solution

Last week in this space, we talked about learning a new language, the language of the AFP (Away From the Pointspread).  With it, comes a whole new way of thinking about handicapping.  Rather than playing selections based purely on momentum, with the attendant loss in line value, the AFP indicator SEEKS OUT VALUE to let you know, IN A VERY CONTRARY WAY, when to play the LETDOWN, or the BOUNCEBACK.

To review the concept of the AFP, I will repeat the example we used last week.  Let’s say a 10 point favorite wins a game by 30 points, FOR THAT GAME, they would have a +20 AFP. This number can be used in referring to a specific game, a group of games such as home or away, for the YTD, or in conjunction with another team’s AFP to provide A NET DIFFERENTIAL NUMBER.   It is that Net Differential Number that is of greatest concern to us in this article.  Please allow me to put it in terms of stating the concept.

The 50 point Contrary AFP Concept:  Between Games #4 and #7 (for each team) of the CFB Season, we look to play ON a team who has an AFP of -20 or worse and AGAINST an opponent with an AFP of +20 or better if the sum of those numbers is 50 or more.  Finally, it is imperative that our PLAY ON team has a LOSING pointspread record and that our PLAY AGAINST team has a WINNING pointspread record.

The optimal situation for this is if either our PLAY ON team LOST SU and ATS in their game last week, or if our PLAY AGAINST team WON SU and ATS in their game last week.  It is even better if both situations occur.   Because the linemaker adjusts approximately 1 point in a team’s power rating for every 7 to 10 points of AFP differential, we are in most cases getting at least a touchdown of line value from where this line would have been in Week #1 which is the linemaker’s highly respected original opinion of all teams.

Let’s look at examples for the games of Saturday, September 23rd

 

Team SU ATS AFP Foe SU ATS AFP Net AFP

Diff

Line Value

from Wk #1

App State 2-1 0-3 -26 Wake Forest 3-0 3-0 +49 -75 7
Boston College 1-2 0-3 -51 Clemson 3-0 3-0 +39 -90 7
Nebraska 1-2 1-2 -20 Rutgers 1-2 2-1 +32 -52 10
UTEP 0-3 0-3 -49 New Mex State 1-2 3-0 +30 -79 15
Baylor 0-3 1-2 -58 Oklahoma 3-0 3-0 +35 -93 14
Arizona St 1-2 0-2-1 -32 Oregon 3-0 2-1 +31 -63 15

 

These (6) teams above are the qualifiers for this weekend’s games.  They are rarely easy to bet, but what do you care as long as you are putting money in your pocket!

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