By Joe Gavazzi   JoeGavazziSports.com



Monday, December 3, 2018


If you have ever delved into the analytics of the statistics that most correlate with winning basketball pointspread selections, you will discover that defense, rebounding and taking care of the basketball are the key indicators of success.  Many coaches, even at the grade school level, understand that concept and emphasize it to young players.  As the corps of their fundamentals, that success translates no matter what level the game is being played.  The more one plays the game, coaches the game, or analyzes the game, the more he finds it to be a self-evident truth.  For our purposes, from the CBKB Season that runs from November thru March each season, I have devised a simple formula which has proven to be highly successful in translating a team’s statistical evidence into pointspread winners.


The 3 key ingredients which I use are:

   (R) Rebound margin

   (A) Assists/turnover ratio

   (T) Turnover margin


Incredulously enough, unless one of the teams in a game has a very hot or very cold 3 point shooting night, the difference between one teams RAT and the other teams RAT comes very close to replicating the final margin of victory.  As a result, the RAT ratings are absolutely imperative for a successful statistical handicapping season. When I use it in conjunction with the other aspects of my methodology including situational handicapping, home/road dichotomies, and coaching personality profiles, it becomes an ideal formula for isolating pointspread winners.  Thus, it is no wonder that, since 1979, this bureau has …


I begin using the RAT ratings on December 1st.   Even though the teams often have a diverse strength of schedule, it can be an important ally to begin using in my handicapping arsenal.  As a microcosm of how successful these ratings can be, let’s take a look at the chart below which presents the CBKB teams which, as of this date, have a positive rebound margin, assists/turnover ratio, and net TO margin.  Here are the RAT ratings and pointspread results of teams who have a +13 or more RAT rating.


Wofford +14.0 6-2 4-2
VA Tech +13.6 6-1 6-1
Virginia +19.2 7-0 5-2
Utah State +17.5 7-1 7-1
Texas Tech +14.7 7-0 4-3
Texas State +15.1 7-1 6-1
Tennessee +18.9 4-1 3-2
Temple +13.2 7-1 4-4
Southern Utah +15.8 4-1 3-0
S. Miss +13.3 5-2 2-3
San Francisco +17.2 7-1 5-1
NC State +22.8 7-1 6-2
North Carolina +21.0 6-2 5-3
Nevada +15.8 8-0 6-1
Nebraska +13.9 7-1 7-1
Murray State +13.4 5-0 4-0
Michigan +14.1 8-0 5-3
Kansas State +14.0 6-1 4-3
Iowa State +14.2 6-1 4-3
Houston +16.4 6-0 3-2
Gonzaga +17.3 7-0 6-1
Furman +15.0 8-0 3-2
ETSU +15.6 6-3 7-1
Duke +19.1 7-1 5-3
Cincinnati +13.9 7-1 4-4
Buffalo +16.6 7-0 5-0
Belmont +18.1 6-1 4-2
Auburn +21.7 6-1 5-0


It is true that some of these teams you would simply be able to isolate for yourself by looking at the “Top 25”.  But what about the rest of the teams on our list and what about the teams that are in the “Top 25” that are NOT on our list.  I will save you the trouble of doing the math to let you know that these teams are 180-124 AU, 132-51 ATS (72%) as of Sunday, December 2nd.


As the season evolves, this list will change with other teams evolving and some dropping off.  You can do the work of calculating the RAT number for every team you would consider playing or take advantage of my complete CBKB methodology and plan on winning more money than you ever conceived imaginable this CBKB Season with my selections.

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