THIS IS HOW WE DO IT!
The fascination with basketball all began with the Duquesne Dukes of the early 1950’s. I would lay in bed at night with a transistor radio under my pillow. Head Coach Dudey Moore had a talented trio of Sihugo Green and the Ricketts brothers who would challenge for National superiority that came with winning the NIT, then the crown jewel of College Hoops.
Before I knew it, I was spending hours on a tile floor in my basement, shooting a soccer size rubber ball at a 6’ hoop. Thanks, dad!
Soon I had outgrown my home court and joined 5th grade organized basketball. Quickly, I learned there was more to basketball than just shooting. Along with layup drills, we learned footwork, rebounding, and defense. Still, running offensive sets and scoring was way more fun.
Fortunate to be in a small school district, with coaches who stressed fundamentals, that tightly knit group of 5th graders evolved into a championship senior team. We were a high scoring efficient offensive team. It soon began to dawn on me however, that offensive success was fueled by our defense, rebounding, and shot selection.
Flash forward through decades of rec ball, winter league coaching, and a professional sports handicapping career. Combining my analytical abilities with my math and writing skills made it a profession that I approach with passion every day.
With the advent of the high tech era came 15 years of scouring a data base searching for patterns that would lead to successful seasons. Combined with home/road dichotomies, and coaching personality profiles, I authored consistent winning seasons in which I won better than 60% in a span of 200 to 300 games. Still, I was not satisfied. I was seeking a theory that would yield winning selections using a more fundamental approach.
Finally it happened! Several years ago, I was gifted a book authored by a self-made millionaire, Ray Diallo, entitled “Principles”. THE LIGHT BULB FLASHED ON! I would use my vast experience and knowledge to devise a methodology that would combine the key components of fundamental success.
The object was to use a set of numbers, not specifically used by the linemaker, that would accurately reflect the final score of the game. After much reflection, and drawing from similar experiments of the past, I GOT IT CORRECT THE FIRST TIME… RIGHT OUTTA THE BOX! The very fundamentals I first learned in grade school, and had influenced me for decades, were the solution:
USE A COMBINATION OF REBOUNDING, ASSIST, AND TURNOVER NUMBERS FOR OPPOSING TEAMS TO PREDICT A SCORING MARGIN FOR EACH GAME. Voila!… but wait!… there’s more!
I knew from Diallo’s work that a PRINCIPLE was not enough. There needed to be RULES governing that PRINCIPLE and PARAMETERS strengthening the RULES.
Determine the numerical difference between my number and the betting line that would provide a meaningful 60% or higher consistently winning percentage.
Acknowledge that differential, as the betting line approaches my number that needs to be increased to maintain the same winning percentage.
There are (3) different frames in every college hoop season. The non-conference season of November-December, the conference season of January-February, and the playoff season of March. Fortunately, from my experience, I knew this, and was a step ahead of the curve immediately in this regard.
PARAMETER #1… Home/road dichotomies
Again, from my years of experience, I knew for some teams, there were vast differences in home vs. road performance. I assume that there is far more vocal support and larger crowds at Michigan State that at, for example, SIU-Edwardsville! As a result, from jump, I recorded results for home games, separately from away, or neutral games. This work, and resulting differentiation, has paid huge dividends in the conference season.
It is easy to conclude from experience, that current form plays a factor in outcome. Often times this results from adding or subtracting a player or players due to injury or eligibility. Jumping on these changes at the proper time can be critical. I knew this. As a result, I added a ‘RECENCY FACTOR” in every time frame, as well as the HOME/ROAD numbers… An excellent move!
Not wanting to “throw out the baby with the bath water” i.e. reject all other meaningful criteria I had used in the past, I decided to settle on a pair of key indicators that I believed would be helpful.
In our current high tech world, there are numerous methods by which defense is measured. Many revolve around defensive efficiency based on a standard of 100 possessions. Maybe that is usable, maybe it is not! What I do know is that my unique proprietary method based on points allowed and FG%, is extremely effective with defined differentials between my defensive number and the betting line. This has proven to be extremely effective in neutral court games, as well as in isolating underdog selections.
S.O.S. (strength of schedule)
It’s no secret that there are dichotomous philosophies for preparing your team for conference play. One revolves around SOS (strength of schedule). Some coaches, often with younger, less experienced teams, schedule a series of cupcakes to develop his team’s confidence and cohesion. Other coaches, with more experienced teams, play a more rigorous schedule to please the NCAA selection committee, as well as prepare his team for the rigors of conference play and March Madness. With a documented win percentage of nearly 70%, these are the teams, with only two qualifying factors, that we focus on in December and January.
The above unique and proprietary operating procedures outline “THIS IS HOW WE DO IT”! These PRINCIPLES, RULES, and PARAMETERS might be able to be derived from a data base presented in the form of a spread sheet for the daily schedule. That, however, IS NOT HOW WE DO IT! The methodology is strictly “old school”.
Each day of the season, with the help of a diligent, experienced assistant, we log the key statistical results for every game on the schedule in a “Stat and Log Book” for 260 Division I teams. That is over 8000 team/game stats, from November thru March. This information is then transferred, again by hand, for each game on the current day’s schedule. Remember, there are nearly 300 games/week.
Only then, am I able to apply the PRINCIPLES, RULES, and PARAMETERS described above to isolate the selections that had these incredible results in its first full season of 2018-19.
“THE PROOF IS IN THE PUDDING”
These are the highlights of the first full season of the theory.
- 20 out of 22 winning weeks to finish the season
- OVER 60% Top Play Winners
- Over $32,000 Net Profit for $100 Players per % of bankroll
- Over 10 times return on investment in 5 months
AS good as these numbers look, they pale in comparison to the 6 figure profits made by the hundreds who employed my “MONEY MANAGEMENT THEORY”.
Joe Gavazzi’s MONEY MANAGEMENT THEORY
THIS IS THE NEXT THING YOU SHOULD READ. And you should do it IMMEDIATELY! Because whether or not you choose to follow my College Hoop selections, this “Money Management Theory” is meant to both SAVE YOU MONEY, as well as MAKE YOU INFINITELY MORE MONEY with its “MULTIPLIER EFFECT”. This is available exclusively at joegavazzisports.com website. GO THERE NOW… PRINT IT… AND EMBLAZON IT ON YOUR PARTNERS FOREHEAD.
For questions or comments about this article, or to inquire about availing yourself of the selections of the handicapper who has MORE NET WINNERS THAN ANY OTHER SINCE 1979
CALL 724-715-7186 or email us at firstname.lastname@example.org
Best regards… Joe Gavazzi joegavazzisports.com