Keep on Trackin’ August 23rd 2019
Since the turn of the millennium, I have tracked, on a weekly basis, 3 key statistical areas of CFB games. These have been remarkably consistent over the previous 19 years. They point out the importance in CFB of (1) controlling the line of scrimmage and (2) the importance of offensive balance. The third statistical area, Defensive Dandies, also relates to teams who dominate their opponent on the scoreboard and in the ATS column. This article will present numbers for each of these statistical areas in the 2018 CFB Season as well as list the teams whose OVERALL STATISTICS qualified in each category at the conclusion of the 2018 REGULAR SEASON.
249-77 ATS (76.4%)…Record of any team who Double Rushes their opponent in a game
140-50 ATS (73.4%)…Record of any team who Runs AND Passes 200+ yards in a game if opponent does not
108-15 ATS (87.8%)…Record of any team who has a +3 or more NET TO MARGIN in a game
These statistics are all in line with the 19 year average since the turn of the millennium. Now, in 3 distinct charts, let’s look at teams from the 2018 Season who DOUBLE RUSHED their opponent, RAN AND PASSED for 200+ yards/game, and TEAMS WHOSE DEFENSE ALLOWED 200+ yards/game. As a measure of defensive prowess, I will also include a chart of “Defensive Dandies” who ALLOWED less than or equal to 20 points/game, less than or equal to 325 yards/game and less than or equal to 3.5 YPR.
200 CLUB OFFENSIVE TEAMS
|TEAM||200+ RUN YARDS||200+ PASS YARDS|
200 CLUB DEFENSIVE TEAMS
|TEAM||200+ RUN DEFENSE||200+ PASS DEFENSE|
|New Mexico State||270||207|
|San Jose State||211||284|
|TEAM||DEFENSIVE PTS/GM||DEFENSIVE YDS/GM||DEFENSIVE YPR|
REMEMBER, THESE ARE STATISTICS FROM THE 2018 SEASON. They can be valuable only to the extent that a team’s experienced players can replicate these numbers. In the early weeks of the season, before current information becomes reliable, it is the handicapper’s job to conjoin a team’s performance from the previous season with the all-important experience rating going forward. MORE IMPORTANT THAN THAT… when you have accurately assessed the impact, positive or negative, it is critical that you find the discrepancies in where the linemaker has not duplicated your efforts. Only then, do you find true value in the betting line.
IF YOU DO NOT HAVE THE TIME, ARE WILLING TO MAKE THE EFFORT, OR LACK THE EXPERIENCE TO MAKE THESE JUDGEMENTS, you are destined to a losing start to the CFB Season from which you may never recover. Act accordingly when deciding to enlist handicapping advice from an advisor who has spent the off season making cogent conclusions about the combination of last year’s performance, and the all-important experience factor.