Keep on Trackin’

Keep on Trackin’ August 23rd 2019

 

Since the turn of the millennium, I have tracked, on a weekly basis, 3 key statistical areas of CFB games.  These have been remarkably consistent over the previous 19 years.  They point out the importance in CFB of (1) controlling the line of scrimmage and (2) the importance of offensive balance.  The third statistical area, Defensive Dandies, also relates to teams who dominate their opponent on the scoreboard and in the ATS column.  This article will present numbers for each of these statistical areas in the 2018 CFB Season as well as list the teams whose OVERALL STATISTICS qualified in each category at the conclusion of the 2018 REGULAR SEASON.

 

249-77 ATS (76.4%)…Record of any team who Double Rushes their opponent in a game

 

140-50 ATS (73.4%)…Record of any team who Runs AND Passes 200+ yards in a game if opponent does not

 

108-15 ATS (87.8%)…Record of any team who has a +3 or more NET TO MARGIN in a game

 

These statistics are all in line with the 19 year average since the turn of the millennium.  Now, in 3 distinct charts, let’s look at teams from the 2018 Season who DOUBLE RUSHED their opponent, RAN AND PASSED for 200+ yards/game, and TEAMS WHOSE DEFENSE ALLOWED 200+ yards/game.  As a measure of defensive prowess, I will also include a chart of “Defensive Dandies” who ALLOWED less than or equal to 20 points/game, less than or equal to 325 yards/game and less than or equal to 3.5 YPR.

 

200 CLUB OFFENSIVE TEAMS

 

TEAM 200+ RUN YARDS 200+ PASS YARDS
Arizona 202 255
Cincinnati 240 219
Clemson 249 279
Florida Atlantic 242 237
Florida 213 213
Georgia 239 227
Houston 217 296
LA Lafayette 219 206
Memphis 280 243
Michigan 204 216
Missouri 202 279
Nebraska 208 248
Ohio 259 208
Oklahoma 247 323
Penn State 205 218
Texas A&M 219 253
Toledo 216 228
UAB 201 204
UCF 265 258
Utah State 204 294
Wake Forest 215 236

 

 

 

200 CLUB DEFENSIVE TEAMS

 

TEAM 200+ RUN DEFENSE 200+ PASS DEFENSE
Ball State 240 210
Coastal Carolina 245 206
Colorado State 220 232
Connecticut 335 282
Duke 209 200
Georgia State 251 239
Hawaii 205 235
Houston 221 276
Illinois 245 263
Kent State 220 247
LA Lafayette 219 217
Liberty 222 263
Louisville 277 206
Massachusetts 277 210
North Carolina 219 229
Nebraska 201 240
New Mexico 217 256
New Mexico State 270 207
Old Dominion 216 255
Mississippi 222 262
Oregon State 282 255
South Alabama 203 246
San Jose State 211 284
Central Florida 222 211
Virginia Tech 210 223

 

 

DEFENSIVE DANDIES

 

TEAM DEFENSIVE PTS/GM DEFENSIVE YDS/GM DEFENSIVE YPR
Alabama 18 320 3.5
Appalachian State 16 289 3.5
Cincinnati 17 302 3.3
Clemson 13 286 2.5
Iowa 18 295 3.3
Miami 20 279 3.5
Michigan State 17 303 2.6
Mississippi State 13 263 2.9
Southern Mississippi 20 280 3.4
UAB 17 299 3.4
Utah 19 316 2.9
Washington 16 306 3.5

 

REMEMBER, THESE ARE STATISTICS FROM THE 2018 SEASON.  They can be valuable only to the extent that a team’s experienced players can replicate these numbers.  In the early weeks of the season, before current information becomes reliable, it is the handicapper’s job to conjoin a team’s performance from the previous season with the all-important experience rating going forward.  MORE IMPORTANT THAN THAT… when you have accurately assessed the impact, positive or negative, it is critical that you find the discrepancies in where the linemaker has not duplicated your efforts.  Only then, do you find true value in the betting line.

 

IF YOU DO NOT HAVE THE TIME, ARE WILLING TO MAKE THE EFFORT, OR LACK THE EXPERIENCE TO MAKE THESE JUDGEMENTS, you are destined to a losing start to the CFB Season from which you may never recover.  Act accordingly when deciding to enlist handicapping advice from an advisor who has spent the off season making cogent conclusions about the combination of last year’s performance, and the all-important experience factor.

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