Using Starting Pitchers OPS & ERA to Predict TRGS & W/L Record

At the time of this writing, MLB teams have completed 5 weeks of action or nearly 20% of their games.  This article focuses on the starting pitchers who have completed at least 25 or more IP of work through 5 weeks of action.

The purpose of the article is to compare a pitcher’s OPS and ERA with their TRGS (team record game started) and personal W/L record.

Remember that for betting purposes, the pitchers TRGS reflects our profit and loss.  In that regard, a team’s batting OPS performance, as well as home/road dichotomy for that of both the pitcher and team, are other indicators to consider when referring to this data.  Nonetheless, these opening weeks of action are often indicative of a team and pitcher’s early season performance based on his OPS and/or ERA.  Conclusions of interest will follow the lists below.

For the purpose of this study and in the interest of space and time, we will only analyze the top pitchers in the league.  An analysis of all pitchers has proven, in recent years, to provide consistent results with those reflected in the charts below.

At the time of this writing, MLB teams have completed 5 weeks of action or nearly 20% of their games.  This article focuses on the starting pitchers who have completed at least 25 or more IP of work through 5 weeks of action.

The purpose of the article is to compare a pitcher’s OPS and ERA with their TRGS (team record game started) and personal W/L record.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Conclusions:

Even with only 5 weeks of data available, the normal results show that the OPS numbers for top pitchers are more reflected in success for the TRGS and W/L record of a starting pitcher.  This year’s results are dichotomous to those normal findings.  The OPS pitchers have a 62% TRGS and 67% W/L record.  The ERA pitchers have a more favorable 66% TRGS and 73% W/L record.

The 6 pitchers who are ONLY on the OPS chart have combined records of 15-19 TRGS and 9-12 W/L record.  The 7 pitchers who are ONLY on the ERA chart are 27-14 TRGS and have a 17-7 W/L record.

Perhaps the greatest take away from this chart is the fact that when a pitcher appears on the Top 25 list of BOTH the OPS and ERA charts, he has a 77-40 TRGS and 69-25 personal W/L record.

Posted in: MLB

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