By Joe Gavazzi

In the 2ndhalf of the 2018 Season, I began listing the CFB Perception/Reality plays in THE POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS each week.  They had a rock solid record of 65-44 ATS.  The basic theory behind my Perception/Reality plays is that there is a reversal of form in the week following a game in which a team wins the game, but loses the yardage, or gains the victory because of a biased turnover margin in their favor.  In this case, we have a PLAY AGAINST team.

The opposite is also true as we can look to PLAY ON teams who lost a game in which they outgained the opposition but failed to get the victory, perhaps due to a negative turnover margin.

Due to the fact the linemaker adjusts the line as a result of points rather than yardage, this concept ALWAYS PROVIDES VALUE.  THE BIGGER THE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN POINTS AND SCORE, usually characterized by the AFP, the greater the value that accrues.

When using this tool, remember that it is, to a degree, a subjective analysis.  It is only one of the ways in which a game is to be handicapped. Using cumulative edges usually yields better results.

This week’s PLAY ON Perception/Reality teams includes USC, North Texas, Iowa State, Michigan State and Mississippi State in CFB and LA Chargers and Minnesota in the NFL.

This week’s PLAY AGAINST Perception/Reality teams are BYU, California, Arizona State (Iowa and Kansas State who each play NEXT week) as well as Green Bay and Detroit in the NFL.


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