Last week in this space, I authored an article on “The Defensive Dandies, Duds and 200 Clubs” for 2017 CFB. Refer to last week’s article at JoeGavazziSports.com to review those findings. I also promised we would take a look at the offensive statistics this week. They are presented in a group of 3 charts below pointing out the best and worstoffensive teams in the nation. If you follow “Keep on Trackin’” in the Pointspread Prognosis Newsletter, you will see the value of the first two lists presented in this article. This millennium it is a long term 75% ATS situation to “Bet On” any team who double rushes their opponent as well as to “Bet On” any team who, in any given game, runs andpasses for 200 or more yards if their opponent does not. With that as a background, I present the 3 groups of teams entitled “The Double Rushers, the 200 Club and TheOffensive Oafs” along with the parameters for each.
- Average 250 or more RYPG
- Average 4.5 or more OYPR
- Allow 50% or less RYPG as their offense gains
- Allow less than 4.5 DYPR
|TEAM||OFF RYPG||OFF YPR||FOE RYPG||FOE YPR||ATS|
It should come as no surprise when we add up the ATS column to find out that these qualifying teams have a 41-21 ATS record. But you do not have to isolate your pointspread winners to only these teams. If you review the “Stat Matchup” for CFB games each week, you can project which teams will “Double Rush” their opponent and, IF THEY ARE NOT ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE OF THE TO MARGIN, will provide you a great opportunity for pointspread winners. Now let’s take a look at the Double Rushers with theparameters outlined below. Note that in this list there are several teams which overlap with the double rushers.
THE OFFENSIVE 200 CLUB
- Average 32 or more PPG
- Average 200 or more RYPG
- Average 4.5 or more OYPR
- Average 200 or more PYPG
- Average 7.5 or more PYPPS
|TEAM||OFF PPG||OFF RYPG||OFF YPR||OFF PYPG||OFF PYPPS||ATS|
Unlike the above list of Double Rushers, the ATS results show only a 50% ATS return. The reason for this is that, due to space considerations, I have not included any defensive parameters for these teams. That does not mean you should ignore the thinking of this highly successful theory. Once again, if you go to your Statistical Matchup of the teams on a game-by-game basis, you can draw your own conclusions about which teams will run and pass for 200 yards against this week’s opponent, while holding their foe to less than 200 YPG both running and passing.
Now let’s look at our 3rd offensive list which, unlike the groups above, point out the impotent offenses this CFB Season. I call them…
THE OFFENSIVE OAFS
- Score 20 or less PPG
- Average 340 or less YPG
- Average 120 or less RYPG
- Average 3.5 or less YPR
|TEAM||OFF PPG||OFF YPG||OFF RYPG||OFF YPR||ATS|
|San Jose State||16||330||117||3.2||3-5|
In an era where there are more high scoring CFB games than ever, it is clearly important to score the football. No longer does defense only win football games. The pointspread record of the teams on this list are proof of that fact. There are several teams who were “almost qualifiers” for this list. Such teams include Kent State (3-4 ATS), ODU (1-5ATS), Temple (2-5 ATS) and Texas State (2-5 ATS). As the season goes into the 2nd half, you want to stay far away from these teams unless they are getting substantial points against a disinterested favorite.
There you have it! A look at our statistical review for the offensive side of the football at the half way point of the 2017 CFB Season. Along with the defensive groups presented last week, you have all the ammunition you need to make solid conclusions from a statistical perspective on each week’s card. For the conclusions of this bureau, while incorporating situational and technical considerations, enjoy the read of the CFB Pointspread Prognosis selections each week.