The Defensive Dandies, Duds, and 200 Clubs

With 6 weeks of statistics in the books for many of the CFB teams, I am ready to make definitive conclusions about the defensive abilities of the 130 CFB teams.  In this week’s article, I divide the teams into 3 groups.   First is the Defensive Dandies, who are the best statistical teams in the nation.  The second two groups, entitled the Defensive DUDS and the 200 Clubs represent the worst statistical defensive teams on the CFB landscape.  Below I will list the parameters for each of these groups followed by a chart of the 3 groups of teams and their numbers.  Next week, we will look at the offensive side of the ball.  To see the way you can use these numbers to your advantage, I urge a subscription to the Pointspread Prognosis Newsletter, available on this site and a review of the statistical conclusions entitled “Keep on Trackin’”.

The Defensive Dandies

  • Allow less than or equal to 20 PPG
  • Allow less than 300 YPG
  • Allow less than or equal to 120 RYPG
  • Allow less than or equal to 3.0 YPR
Team DEF PPG DEF YPG DEF RYPG DEF YPR
Alabama 10 259 74 2.8
Auburn 13 288 112 3.0
Clemson 11 264 99 2.8
Duke 20 294 88 2.9
Georgia 10 243 86 2.9
Michigan 14 213 87 2.6
Michigan State 16 259 97 3.0
Northern Illinois 17 261 104 2.5
Ohio State 16 291 120 2.9
Penn State 9 285 117 3.0
USF 20 294 74 2.4
Washington 10 229 79 2.3
Wisconsin 14 274 81 27

As long as these teams remain qualified Defensive Dandies, fade them at your own risk, and always look to PLAY ON them in the role of underdog or with a reason to play.

Defensive Duds

  • Allow 32 or morePPG
  • Allow 460 or more YPG
  • Allow 200 or more RYPG
  • Allow 5.0 or more Def YPR
Team 32+ DEF PPG 460+ YPG 200+ RYPG 5.0+ DEF YPR
Baylor 36 474 234 5.3
Bowling Green 34 528 232 5.2
East Carolina 48 600 281 5.9
Kansas 45 508 203 5.0
LA Lafayette 46 507 265 5.3
LA Monroe 37 461 225 5.3
North Carolina 33 470 242 5.2
San Jose 42 484 279 5.0
Tulsa 44 588 348 6.8
UCLA 39 507 284 6.3
UNLV 33 489 214 5.0
UTEP 40 485 236 5.4

The above group of teams are vulnerable defensively.  But they are especially vulnerable to the run.  Check “Keep on Trackin’” in the Pointspread Prognosis to see again this year how poorly CFB teams do when they are double rushed.

The Defensive 200 Club

  • Allow 32 or more PPG
  • Allow 200 or more RYPG
  • Allow 200 or more PYPG
  • Allow 4.5 or more YPR
  • Allow 7.5 or more PYPA
Team 32+ DEF PPG 200+ DEF RYPG 200+ DEF PYPG

 

4.5+ DYPR 7.5+ DPYPA
Baylor 36 234 239 5.3 7.9
Bowling Green 34 232 296 5.2 8.8
East Carolina 48 281 320 5.9 10.5
Georgia Southern 40 211 204 5.0 8.5
Kansas 45 203 306 4.9 9.0
Kent State 34 215 232 5.3 8.1
LA Lafayette 46 265 241 5.3 8.6
LA Monroe 37 225 235 5.3 7.5
North Carolina 33 242 229 5.2 7.5
Oregon State 45 200 295 4.8 8.7
San Jose 42 279 205 5.0 7.5
Tulsa 44 348 240 6.8 11.6
UNLV 33 214 272 5.0 7.7
UTEP 40 236 229 5.4 8.4

Much like the Defensive Duds above, you should avoid playing on these teams unless they are getting plentiful points, have a reason to play, or their opponent is in letdown mode.  There are few circumstances in which you should ever lay points with any of the teams who are Defensive Duds or 200 Club members. To see how well you would do by fading teams who allow 200 or more yards both rushing and passing in the game, make sure to review “Keep on Trackin’” in your Pointspread Prognosis Newsletter.

Now you know who are the worst defensive teams on the CFB landscape through the 2nd weekend in October!  By updating their stats weekly, following the parameters laid out in the conclusions for each above, and following results in the “Keep on Trackin’” section of the Pointspread Prognosis Newsletter, you can be a very wealthy man by the end of the CFB Season.  We return next week with a look at the offensive statistics.

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