11-5-1 ATS (69%) Results from LW

Below is an example of what’s in it this week..




JUST $84

Tons of action still to come!



In this very space last week, I wrote about the fact that in the previous 3 weeks, the CFB selections in this missive had a mind-boggling -22 Net TO margin!  Remember, since turnovers are purportedly random, this number should be ZERO through the course of time.  Last week, the CFB selections from Joe Gavazzi and Guest Handicappers went 6-3 ATS.  One would have thought that the Net TO margin went in our favor.  NOT THE CASE, making it even more impressive that these selections went 67% ATS.  The 10 game results showed a -4 Net TO margin (and that included a +4 Net TO margin by our Steamroller Georgia Southern.  Will we sweep the board if Net TO margins ever turn in our favor? 


DOUBLE RUSHERS (75%) ~ 200 CLUB (76%) ~ TURNOVERS (83%) 


Fans of “Keep on Trackin’” will be pleased to note that after (5) weeks of CFB action and (4) weeks of NFL action, that the figures from the first 20 years of this millennium are being upheld.  Those figures are reflected in the chart, showing results back to the year 2000, with cumulative totals for the YTD. Isolating one of those factors is the Double Rusher in College Football.  Not only are they 110-36 ATS (75%) this season, but in the last 3 weeks, these results have zoomed to 77-19 ATS (80%) in CFB play when one team outrushes the other by a greater than 2 to 1 margin.  Last Saturday, our 6% play on Kent State (-16-) clearly fell into that category.  The game was advertised as “Like a hot knife through butter”. That is exactly what the Golden Flashes did to the Bowling Green defense when they outrushed them 262-55, BY A NEARLY 5 to 1 MARGIN.  With that differential, my best estimate is that Kent State would have had a 90+% chance to cover.  THEY DIDN’T, AND A WELL HANDICAPPED 6% SELECTION was a rare loser in that category dropping the record to 25-9 ATS of late.                    ______________________________

THE YPPL (Yards per Play) FACTOR

In the previous two weeks, I have shared with you the concept of the AFP (Away From the Pointspread) and the S.O.S. (Strength of Schedule) Theories from my handicapping tool box.  This week, with many teams having completed 5 games of their schedule, we can begin to use one of the best statistical indicators available;  that is the YPPL (Yards Per Play).  When handicapping, it can be very profitable (see “Double Rushers” from the paragraph above) to focus on teams who will dominate the line of scrimmage using the YPR (Yards Per Rush) differentials.  Likewise, in many games where teams have unbalanced passing attacks, the YPPS (Yards Per Pass) for each team’s offense and defense can be a valuable measure.  That being said, why not extrapolate all those factors and put them into one neat package of YPPL.  This is an extremely valuable tool which one might use to ferret out an underdog play.  Let’s take an example from this week’s card in which we find Syracuse to be a 7 point underdog, at home to Wake Forest.  The YPPL concept is best used at this point in the season IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFP & S.O.S. NUMBERS.  Here’s how this game plays out.  Syracuse has a +1.6 Net YPPL compared to +0.4 Net YPPL for 5-0 SU Wake Forest.  Syracuse has played the #92 schedule, 21 points more difficult than Wake.  And they have a Net AFP of +40 compared to +19 for Wake.  Syracuse also has the superior defense in terms of YPR, YPPS, and by a +106 yards.  As a result, we have a home dog of 7 points, with the better YPPL diff, against the more difficult schedule, and the clearly better defense.  See how easy it is.  Other UNDERDOGS on this week’s card who have the BETTER YPPL DIFF and POSITIVE YPPL DIFF include Virginia, Utah, Memphis, Arkansas and Penn State.  Check ‘em out!



At the conclusion of each week of CFB action, I prepare a report similar to the one below which gives results of underdogs, home and away, at various price point levels.  As I mentioned in last week’s Pointspread Prognosis, the record for all CFB underdogs for Week #4 was 34-22-2 ATS, including 26-14 ATS if +7+.  Here is an example of my report after Week #5 action on Saturday, October 2nd

P to +3237497
+4 to +6013233
+7 to +9224163
+10 to +14631477
+15 to +20114354
+21 to +28012122
 8 outright home dog wins 12 outright road dog wins 20 outright underdog wins 


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Saturday, Sept 11th 

Joe Gavazzi’s DOG of the DAY!   (1-0)

Rice (+8) 6:30 PM ET

Last week’s DOD barked home a winner (or do I mean “barfed”, outrushed 400-92) with the Florida Atlantic Owls.  This runs the record to a PSP leading 11-4 ATS L1+Y.   THESE Owls however, were letting us down as a 3% PHP selection.  Leading 17-7 in the 3rd vs. Arkansas, they gave up 31 consecutive points to fail by 1 point to the number.  Losing 3 turnovers was a big key.  An overrated Houston team, led by HC Holgorsen, who has a 54-68 ATS lifetime mark, was badly outplayed by Texas Tech being outgained 376-251 in a 21-38 to TTRR.  Much like the Owls, committing 4 turnovers was their undoing.  Much more is always expected of a Holgorsen coached team who annually fails to live up to its Preseason hype.  At the other end of the spectrum is a Rice team who has been slowly building to a crescendo under HC Bloomgren, who has increased their win percentage in all 3 seasons he was at the helm.  With only 4 miles between these schools, we will take the generous points with Rice who could begin to continually outperform linemaker expectations now that Power 5 Nebraska transfer, QB McCaffrey, a dual threat, is at the helm.  This upset is no surprise to this bureau.

Joe Gavazzi’s STEAMROLLER of the Week   (0-1)

SMU (-22-)  7:00 PM ET

It was just 3 short years ago, at the close of the 2018 Season, that now 6th year North Texas HC Littrell recorded consecutive 9 win seasons and was rumored to be headed to Power 5 pastures.  In the last two years however, the bottom has fallen out with a combined record of 8-14 SU, 5-15 ATS.  The reason for last year’s debacle was a defense that got “200 Clubbed” for 43/508.  Why would 10 returning starters on that side of the ball strike fear into the hearts of any opposing offense?  It certainly did not last week when NW State, a 44-14 loser to the Mean Green, committed 4 turnovers BUT STILL PUT UP 418 YARDS.  Only one thing we can expect from an SMU attack that went for 56/501 in their 47 point opening victory against out-manned ABC.  Not  satisfied with taking a back seat to QB Rattler at Oklahoma, Sooner transfer QB Mordecai threw for 317 PY and 7 TDP.  He will certainly be licking his chops all week at the site of this Mean Green defense.  Wire-to-wire Steamroller for SMU!


Ball State (+23)  3:30 PM ET

After the adoring fans of Happy Valley have celebrated the Wisconsin upset, 16-10 as +5, all week, how do the Penn State players, with the realization they host Auburn on this field next week, ever get excited about hosting MAC rep Ball State this Saturday.  That was exactly the situation that faced these visiting Cardinals last week in their “warm-up game” hosting Western Illinois.  Just one short year ago, then 5th year HC Neu, was on the hottest of seats after an opening day loss at Miami (OH).  The Cards then ripped off 7 straight victories, the last 3 as underdog, including 38-28 (as +12) vs. Buffalo to win the MAC Title, and 34-13 as +8 vs. then undefeated San Jose to win their Bowl game.  With 20 starters returning, and a 34/448 offense led by QB Plitt, THIS IS THE GAME to which Ball State has been pointing!   At worst, the back door swings wide open for this explosive Ball State offense as Penn State “gets captured by their game last week at Wisconsin”!

Joe Gavazzi’s FAUX or FO’ REAL Game of the Week   (0-1)

Army (-6-)  11:30 AM ET 

In my Preseason sketch of Western Kentucky, I advised the upcoming offensive outburst by last year’s lethargic Hilltopper team.  The reason:  Houston Baptist transfer QB Zappe who brought along his own OC, Kittley, and a trio of his best receivers.  “Zap”, just like that!  The Hilltoppers, who averaged 19 PPG LY, and did not exceed 25 PPG since 2016, exploded for a 59-21 victory vs. T-Mart when Zappe led an aerial assault of 478 PY with 7 TDP.   It says in this analysis however, that Zap’s performance against T-Mart will not be FO’ REAL once he gets to the banks of the Hudson.  There he will meet an Army defense who allowed just 15/276 LY, best in the country.  With 8 starters returning to that side of the ball, they slowed a powerful Georgia State offense allowing them just 10/177 including 129 PY.  Army ground game was solid, if not spectacular, with 258 RY leading to a 43-10 Cadets victory.  Zap will find out today that you can’t “do what?”, SCORE!, “ without the what?”, the BALL!  And that will be the Hilltoppers downfall as they allowed 201/6.4 last week to T-Mart.  Look for the Cadets to control the ball and the clock in grounding out a comfortable double digit victory.

Joe Gavazzi’s THIS B. U. D. (BIG UGLY DOG) is for you!   (0-1)

Eastern Michigan (+26)  7:00 PM ET

Could the Badgers be ready to smack someone after they outrushed Penn State, 174-50, but allowed a -3 Net TO margin that devolved into a 10-16 loss?   OR, DO THEY LOOK RIGHT PAST this “little brother” with attention focused on their next two opponents, Notre Dame and Michigan.  Even in motoring for 174 RY vs. Penn State, the ground game more resembled the 165/3.9 of LY, rather than their previous outputs of at least 223/5.0 each of the previous 3 years.  Plenty of kinks to work out for the offense behind QB Mertz.  Of equal importance is the job done by 8th year E. Mich HC Creighton.  It was the 5th losing season in 7 years for the Eagles in 2020, 2-4 SU.   But that is not how HC Creighton has made his mark.  Consider that, in the last 5 seasons, his Eagles are now 22-3 ATS as road or neutral dog.  Eagles may not be competitive in this game, but history says they have an outstanding chance to come in under the number against a Wisconsin team who, under 7th year HC Chryst, is just 14-20 ATS as home favorite. 

Joe Gavazzi’s WTF (Wrong Team Favored) Game of the Week   (1-0)

Navy (+6) 3:30 PM ET   

Maybe this bureau is the only one who feels Navy should be favored in this game.  After all, their 49-7 embarrassment on this field at the hands of Marshall last week was the 6th consecutive defeat for the Middies.   Consider this however:  how would you like to have an underdog who controlled the ball for 41/60 minutes, had a positive Net TO margin, and outrushed the opposition 337-101?  You’d be going to the betting window with both fists full of money.  That was exactly the case last week when the Middies trailed wire-to-wire against a Marshall team who “passed them silly” for 363 PY.  Enter Air Force who, based on the fact they averaged 84 PYPG LY,  and threw for just 50 PY last week in their 35-14 rout of Lafayette, do not figure to present the same challenge through the airways.  There was certainly nothing amiss with the Middie option last week as they ran 77 times for 337 RY while holding the Hilltoppers to 101/3.4.  Last year’s 40-7 loss at Air Force was typical of this series, in the regard that THE HOME TEAM HAS NOW WON 8 STRAIGHT GAMES IN THIS MATCHUP WITH THE UNDERDOG GETTING THE ALPO EACH OF THE LAST 4.  Off an embarrassing loss and with blowout revenge, that’s why Navy is the WTF in this week’s PSP. 

Joe Gavazzi’s PERCEPTION/REALITY Game of the Week   (0-1)

Mid Tennessee State (+20) 2:00 PM ET   

Easy PERCEPTION here is that VA Tech has been reborn from their Friday Night Lights upset of North Carolina and will cruise to the winning side of the ledger after missing their first Bowl game last year since they fought with swords.  The REALITY is that win was based more on emotion than statistics as they were outrushed and outpassed by the Heels.  With regional rival West Virginia dead ahead, this is what is known as a “sandwich” game against a CUSA invader from the south.  The perception also may be that this will be, yet another, less than mediocre contingent of Blue Raiders in the mold of teams who went 7-14 SU L2Y.  Their Week #1 win, 50-15, albeit against Monmouth, could well be a harbinger.  Enter Power 5 transfer QB Hockman (from Florida State and NC State), who will line up behind 4 OL starters and 7/8 top WRs.  A defense that returns intact is a year older and wiser.  If not competitive from jump, the back door could well swing wide open for the Raiders when the Hokie thoughts drift to their game at Morgantown next week. 


Sunday, Sept 12th

Joe Gavazzi’s NFL LONE RANGER Game of the Week

New Orleans (+4)  4:25 PM ET

Easiest contrary play on the board to pick!   This game originally opened at “New Orleans (-3)”.  Then came the announcement that QB Winston would be the Game #1 starter.  All the public remembers is his 30 INT season of 2019.  Under the tuteledge of Saints HC Payton, and with a year as understudy to now retired QB Brees, Winston has become a signal caller with a different mindset.  That announcement was followed by Hurricane Ida which displaced the Saints to Dallas and rescheduled this game, two weeks hence to Jacksonville.  Along with all the good vibes that Green Bay’s re-signed QB Rodgers has created by saying “all the right things” in his media interviews, it is no surprise that, by kickoff, over 80% of the public will be lining up on the Packers.  Its games like this where you, and I, and the Lone Ranger make our NFL money. 

Joe Gavazzi’s NFL CRUSHER  of the Week 

Buffalo (-6-)  1:00 PM ET  

Some expect a resilient Pittsburgh team, who started 11-0 SU last year, but finished 1-5 SU LY, to bounce back big.  Those people are relying on the adage that “defense wins football games”.  That however, will be all the Steelers can take to the bank this season.  Their dismal decline was characterized by their lack of overland success as the season wore on.  In the first 5 games of the season, they outrushed their foes by an average of 137-66 YPG.  The defense was staunch enough that in their 11-0 SU start, they were outscoring the opposition 29-17.  Beginning with the final victory in that opening streak however, they were outrushed 129-68 by Baltimore.  In the last 6 games, they never ran for more than 86 yards while allowing the opposition to rush for 127 or more in the final four games of the season.  An offense that averaged 29 PPG in their undefeated start, allowed 29 PPG in the 1-5 SU finish.  In attempting to rectify the situation, the Steelers brain trust is ENLISTING AN ALL NEW OL.  That’s bad news for a 39 year old, immobile signal caller such as Big Ben.  Among that late season meltdown was a game on this field vs. a 9-3 SU Buffalo team who was enroute to an 11-2 SU finish to their season.  The 26-15 final could have been worse as the Bills had overland edges of 104-47 and a total yardage edge of 230-177.  Steelers’ HC Tomlin has not had a losing season in 14 years. This could be the beginning of the end of that streak against a Bills team with by far the superior offense and a solid defense which, in the last two seasons combined, has allowed just 20/331. 

Joe Gavazzi’s NFL OVER/UNDER Game of the Week

UNDER (48) Cincinnati   1:00 PM ET

Shortly after mid-season of 2020, our NFL money machine, Minnesota HC Mike Zimmer, changed his stripes.  At that time, Zimmer had a 68-39 ATS NFL record.  It was, in no small part, attributable to a defense, that in the previous 3 seasons, had allowed just 19 PPG leading the Vikes to a 3 year mark of 33-18 SU.  Then the defense disappeared.  In the final 7 games, the Vikings allowed 33.6 PPG and Zimmer never covered another spread.  A lack-luster August leaves the fate of the Vikings as a major question mark in the mind of their bettors.  Such is also the case with the Bengals who were looking for respectability before an ACL injury to QB Burrow derailed their offensive hopes.  The return of Burrow may renew hope in the Queen Town.  But the truth is that, under 3rd year HC Taylor, this team has averaged just 18/321 per game.  With the Vikings now placing an emphasis on defense and a return to the ground game, I can see this game slogging to a halt resulting in UNDER 48 providing a winning ticket.



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Along with the (7) CFB and (3) NFL selections by Joe Gavazzi each week in the POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS, there are (6) Guest Handicappers.  For a detailed background on each of these handicappers go to JoeGavazziSports.com/Guest Handicappers.   

We welcome (2) new Guest Handicappers to the POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS this season.  They are YOUNG BLOOD SPORTS, whose expertise is NFL and NHL, and TOUCHDOWN TONY, whose ACC connections will surely deliver us gridiron gold.  Missing from the rotation, as she is from time to time, is Cheetah Leggins.  In Preseason discussions, Cheetah got “sassy”, once again, and has now been placed on “probation”, once again.  Err in haste, Cheetah, repent at leisure.   


Mark Harlan… East Coast Insider   (0-0-1)

Rutgers (-2)  2:00 PM ET   

    Selection by Mark Harlan; commentary by Joe Gavazzi

Harlan opened with a “push” on these pages last week with “UCF -5”.  He and his group won the selection laying 3.5 and 4 in a game where the line closed at -6.5.  Hope you got the push as well.  He clearly had the right side as QB Gabriel threw a 100 yard pick 6 (a 14 point swing) and saw his Knights’ team fall behind 21-0.  They rebounded to “200 Club” the Broncos 573-283 including 255-20 overland.  Harlan feels this selection on the SCARLET Knights will be even more convincing.  Each of these teams had convincing victories last week which, because of a positive TO difference, were more dominant on the scoreboard than in the stat column.  Syracuse won 29-9 against an OU team clearly struggling with the recent retirement of long time HC Solich. Rutgers, a 3% PHP winner, made it look easy on the scoreboard with a 61-14 final.  The true story was a +5 Net TO margin which keyed the 47 point victory despite a 365-261 yardage edge.  Harlan however, believes the Orange victory will prove to be an outlier for a team who was 1-10 SU last season.   Conversely, in the 2nd year under Schiano, he believes this veteran Rutgers team, with 21 returning starters, could well reach a Bowl game this season. 

Touchdown Tony… CFB ACC Insider   (1-0) 

Illinois (+10)  11:00 AM ET

Virginia, in the middle of the pack in both offense and defense in the ACC was “okay” in 2020.  Offense and defense should be somewhat improved in 2021 because both lines are decent.  Illinois was about awful in the Big 10 last year.  They should be improved in all aspects of the game in 2021.  Even so, they should have another tough season in 2021.  Needing upsets to get to a bowl game in 2021, don’t look for them to get one in Charlottesville on Saturday.  Virginia will narrowly win this in a “must miss” game.

   Editor’s Note:  Double T got off to an incredible start with his inside information that North Carolina “was reading too many press clippings and looking right past a Hokie team on whom they put up a “56” last season.  “Enter Sandman” with the cameras panning to Tar Heels HC Brown who had that “deer caught in the headlights” look the entire game.  Primetime football has always been a big deal in Blacksburg with Orange filling the stands. The emotional victory was never in doubt as they picked off over-hyped QB Howell 3 times.  This week, Tony focuses on a similar situation.  Though UVA, under HC Mendenhall, is 13-7 ATS vs. non-con foes, this is a horrible spot for his Cavs.  A common theme in sports is “you can’t stay hungry if you are fat”.  That will certainly be the case with Virginia this week who cruised to a 43-0 shutout win vs. outmanned W&M and is NOW LOOKING DEAD AHEAD AT THEIR ACC SLATE beginning with North Carolina next week.  Tony sees emotions on the opposite end of the Illini whose rollercoaster season could well continue with Bielema’s boys due for the bounce back after they fell victim to UTSA (“Hunter” winner on these pages), who themselves were in letdown mode after upsetting Nebraska in Week #1A.  THIS IS THE WEEK  to be back on the Illini.   

Dave Parsoni … Bon Vivant and World Traveler  (1-0)

     Selection by Dave Parsoni; commentary by Joe Gavazzi

Washington  (+7)  8:00 PM ET

Congrats to DP for his Week #1 upset winner with Penn State.  This week he turns his attention to yet another quality underdog team. Last week, I reported that Parsoni had yet to return to the US from his visit to Australia.  I assumed, at the time, that it was COVID related.  When I learned it was actually wine related, I assumed he was seeking to unearth a hidden region of the continent for Pinor Noit grapes.  In a shocking turn of events, I have since learned that Parsoni became intrigued with Australian Syrah (Shiraz), to the extent that he has invested millions in a vineyard in Hunter Valley, the oldest Syrah region on the continent.  The promise of annual shipments to this bureau assures his place on these pages.  This week, our BIG 10 insider, who continues to assure us the time of HC Harbaugh is limited, is eager to fade the Wolverines this week.  He was hardly impressed with the 47 point output against the weak defense of Western Michigan.  He also loves the value created in Washington’s home loss to Montana IN WHICH THEY OUTGAINED THE GRIZZLIES 291-232 BUT HAD A -3 NET TO MARGIN.  The Huskies were clearly looking forward to this trip to Ann Arbor, the only challenging game on their slate until mid-October.  Should Michigan be resting on their laurels following last week’s easy win, they will be clearly stunned by this far superior Husky defense. 


Thursday, Sept 9th

The Breakfast Club… North Philly Money Movers   

Tampa Bay (-8)  8:20 PM ET 

Bruno was surprisingly humble when he called this week.  “Tanks for havin’ us back ‘dis year.  I tought you dumped our ass after we stunk up the joint last year.  We been followin’ the Dallas story all summer.  The loss of their best OL guy puts this pick over the top.  We don’t see any unit on the field where the Cowboys are better.” 

    Editor’s Note:  Caveat Emptor.  “You can’t be hungry if you’re fat.”  And Super Bowl Champ T Bay must certainly be that with the entire offense and defense returning.  Backing the selection however, is the fact that, in the last 20 years, Week #1 defending Super Bowl Champs are 15-5 ATS. 

Sunday, Sept 12th

Young Blood Sports… Keepin’ it Fresh 

Arizona Cardinals (+134)   4:00 PM ET

Ladies and gentlemen, do you feel it? That crisp cool air starting to roll across the ridges? The chilly nights, the morning fog, maybe even the classic feel of your favorite sweatshirt?   Some call it a change of seasons.   I call it the beginning of a new era. That’s right, football is back and YBS is here to make things right in the world! As I mentioned before, there will be NFL moneyline plays released each week for the next 18 weekends.  As the weather cools,  these selections are going to be hotter than ever.   I will do my best to make you money every week.  I’ve rolled my NHL skill set, and attitude, into an NFL mindset which will result in consistent winning selections.  With all that being mentioned, good things take time! It’s still early and there’s a lot to be uncovered. Selections will grow wider as the weeks roll on, but for now, I will leave you with just 1 lock for the week. 

Does Tennessee look good at first glance? Absolutely!  Did I boost my Fantasy Football chances by selecting RB Derrick Henry as my first choice?  Who wouldn’t!  But with the absolute firepower of Murray at QB and Hopkins as a comfy and clear WR choice, this one looks like a no brainer. Thanks to all for following. And as always “tail me or fade me, either way I don’t give a shit”   See y’all at the bank!

The Vegas Beard’s … PRO TEASER of the week  

PASS Week one.  I want to determine by the various lines and line moves which teams have their vaccination numbers very high or 100%.  (I heard that was the case with Atlanta two weeks’ ago.).  Anyway, I want to observe if things seem fairly normal or if we have a rash of NFL problems and crazy line moves because of Covid-19.

That said, I want to remind you about some things I have written before about football teasers.  They are basically a sucker bet.  For example, do not bet college teasers.  College games fall way, way off the line much of the time.  You have a better shot with pro teasers because many games are tight, tight (especially if the line is low–single digits).  OK, I am suggesting that you might win at pro teasers BUT do not make very many plays.  I suggest one to three a week.  AND, stick to two-teamers.   AND, do not lay more than 6-5.  AND, if your man says that a WIN and a TIE is a loss don’t play him.  Actually, any TIE should be no action, but rules vary from book-to-book.

  Editor’s Note:  You can avoid all of this by laying -115 on 6 point teasers at Loose Lines as well as get “Nickle Juice” on every major side and total you bet.



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Category % since L3Y 2020 2021
Double Rushes 75% 689-176 (79.7% ATS) 161-39 (80.5% ATS) 21-11
200 Clubs 74% 376-116 (76.4% ATS) 92-31 (74.8% ATS) 8-3
+3+ Net TO Margin 89% 268-26 (91.2% ATS) 60-3 (95.2%ATS) 5-3
+2 Net TO Margin 76% 169-53 (76.1%ATS) 66-20 (76.7% ATS) 9-4

NFL  “Keep on Trackin’” 

Category % since  2000 L4Y 2020 
Play any team who outrushed their opponent by 30+ yards  75% 492-153  (76.3%) 92-33 (73.6%) 
Play any team with 30+ running attempts if opponent does not  87% 479-101   (82.6%) 97-23 (80.8%) 
PLAY AGAINST any team who rushes ball 22 or less times if foe does  87% 467-493   (83.4%) 79-19 (80.6%) 
ATS result of SU winner in games where line is 6 or less  91% 438-65   (87.1%) 105-17 (86.0%) 
Play any team with a Net TO margin of +3 or more in a game 91% 142-11   (92.8%) 22-2 (91.7%) 
Play any team with a Net TO margin of  +2 in a game 77% 299-74   (80%) 39-8 (82.9%) 


Make sure to contact us at 724-715-7186 or winningsportsadvice@gmail.com to create a Penthouse Picks package that best fits your timeframe and budget. 

Next release of Joe Gavazzi’s POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS, Thursday, September 16th at 2:00 PM ET 

Joe Gavazzi’s CFB & NFL


2021 Preseason Edition

“Never any duplication with Joe’s Executive Penthouse Picks”

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Joe Gavazzi’s CFB & NFL


2021 Week #1 Edition

“Never any duplication between Joe’s PSP selections and his Executive Plays, The Penthouse Picks”

Contact us at:

724-715-7186   winningsportsadvice@gmail.com   JoeGavazziSports.com


In my Preseason Article “Has Someone Been Reading Your Mail”, I emphasized the importance of finding value in Week #1 selections.  More specifically, is the work that you or I have done in analyzing a team’s improvement or regression a duplication of the linemaker’s conclusion.  If so, there is no value.  My job, using my experience and expertise, is to determine where the line value is after the season-to-season adjustments have been made. Toward that end, I will, from I


Only $295 (SAVE over 50%) 

Joe’s September PENTHOUSE PICKS selections

For other packages, rates or details contact us at the information above.

I look forward to each and every one of my Pointspread Subscribers joining us for a huge WINNING MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.  We enter with great momentum on the heals of a 4-1 ATS Saturday of last and a 3-0 ATS 5% NFL-X record.  

Saturday’s card will have 7 to 10 selections rated 3% to 5% including as many as (5) TOP PLAYS.


While discussing the ratings on selections, some of you ask what value should be placed on the Pointspread Prognosis selections.  The answer is 2% of bankroll risk (unless of course they all win, in which case it would be much higher!).


Joe Gavazzi’s DOG of the DAY!  

The Dog of the Day won the Pointspread Prognosis Contest Title for 2020 with a 10-4 ATS (71%) record.  The victory came “in overtime” after a closely contested seasons-long battle with guest handicapper Mark Harlan.

Florida Atlantic (+24) 7:30 PM ET Saturday, Sept 4th

Making this selection despite losing as much as a touchdown of value from where this line would have closed at the conclusion of 2020.  That is because this Florida team is only a shadow of that unit.  They return just 10 starters and have bottom 10% experience.  Gone are QB Trask, TE Pitts and WRs Toney and Grimes.  This year’s new starting signal caller is QB Jones who has been waiting in the wings for 3 years. Florida Atlantic returns 10 starters from both sides of the ball.  An anemic offense of last season averaged just 19 PPG due to a lack of direction at the signal callers spot.  There is however a huge upgrade here with a pair of P5 transfers in QB Perry from Miami and Johnson from Penn State.  The addition of new DC Mike Stoops is ready to improve an already solid stop unit that allowed only 17/343 LY.   With Alabama just 2 weeks hence, Gators HC Mullen will be using this as a Preseason game to find out what he’s got.  Not so for the Owls who will be sky high for this game against Big Brother.   

Joe Gavazzi’s STEAMROLLER of the Week To continue reading…Joe Gavazzi’s POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS – Joe Gavazzi Sports.com

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While at the websiteJoeGavazziSports.com, make sure to click and review the following articles I have authored for CFB handicapping this season.

  • Searching for Value in CFB 2021
  • CFB QB Transfers in 2021
  • New CFB Head Coaches in 2021
  • 2021 CFB teams to BOUNCE BACK BIG
  • Keep on Trackin’ ~ DOUBLE RUSHERS, 200 CLUB, NET TO MARGINS
  • 2021 HIDDEN GEMS


Joe Gavazzi’s  DOG of the DAY!  

This selection won the POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS Contest Title for 2020 with a 10-4 ATS (71%) record.  The victory came “in overtime” after a closely contested season-long battle with Guest Handicapper Mark Harlan. 

Joe Gavazzi’s STEAMROLLER of the Week

In our most popular section “Keep on Trackin’”, which is updated each week in the POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS, you will note the proficiency of  “Double Rushers” and “200 Club” members.  This statistical line of thinking has been the basis of this play since 1989.  Looking for the blowout of the week in CFB?  It resides in this space every week.


In most every season, I look to “keep it fresh” with a newly titled selection.  This one is named after the 1966 Marvelettes Top 10 hit single of the same name.  For a real treat, download the version by Smokey Robinson, the author of the song.  The basis of the selection is to PLAY AGAINST a team who won outright as an underdog last week, is adored on campus for the next 6 days, only to lead to a letdown (captured by the game) in this week’s contest. 

Joe Gavazzi’s FAUX or FO’ REAL Game of the Week

I did a test run of these games in last year’s POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS with a 16-12 (57%) ATS  record.  In short, these were games in which the stats from the previous Saturday did not jive with the final score making them “misleading finals”.  As the linemaker normally adjusts his power ratings, based in part on final scores, there is hidden value in playing ON or AGAINST teams whose stats did not represent the final score. 

Joe Gavazzi’s THIS B. U. D. (BIG UGLY DOG) is for you!

Those of you who followed CFB Pointspread trends last year know that at one point in mid-November road underdogs of 14 or more points were 66-44 ATS (60%).  In searching for value for double digit underdogs, I look for “any underdog of 10 or more points who has a line differential of 10 or more points from where the line would have been opening week”.  In the early weeks of the season, I will use closing lines from last year.  Value in these plays derives from the Net AFP (away from the pointspread) differential of the two teams. 

Joe Gavazzi’s WTF Game of the Week

When veteran handicappers scan the opening lines for next week’s games, they often exclaim (What The F***) often referring to the fact that it is a game in which there is a “Wrong Team Favored”.  Often this is no more than the linemaker understanding public perception of a popular team (EG  Notre Dame).  When they make this type of line, I call it “reputation vs. reality”.  Finding solid reasons to take the value with the underdog team is an opportunity to get great value and pointspread winners.

Joe Gavazzi’s Perception/Reality Game of the Week

This selection is actually a blend of “Faux or Fo’Real” and “WTF”.  It can be on a favorite or underdog.  Requirements may be that there were “upside down” stats from these teams’ games last week or that the linemaker has simply mispriced the game with the understanding that the public’s perception is far from the reality of the respective differences of the opponents. 


Joe Gavazzi’s NFL LONE RANGER Game of the Week

If you enjoy the contrary thinking in NFL handicapping, then you will be a devout follower of this selection each week.  Every week of the NFL Season, teams are mispriced based on the public perception of either the reputation of the team or their recent success based more on good fortune (often turnovers for or against), or a final score which misrepresented the statistics of their game or games.  We take advantage by finding the value for a pointspread winner.

Joe Gavazzi’s NFL CRUSHER  of the Week

Much like the CFB STEAMROLLER of the Week, this selection comes out of the NFL “Keep on Trackin’” section.  As you will note in the box below, there is great success in the NFL by isolating teams who outrush their opponents by 30+ yards in the game, or who I project to run the ball 30 or more times vs. an opponent who will run the ball 22 or less times.  Looking for an NFL BLOWOUT… you found it!

Joe Gavazzi’s NFL OVER/UNDER Game of the Week

Each week in the NFL, the Pointspread Prognosis offers my opinion on an NFL OVER/UNDER selection.  It may be based on history, statistics or situations.  Total points scored in the NFL have been on the rise in recent seasons.  It is important to adjust selections based on current form of teams this season. 



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Along with the (7) CFB and (3) NFL selections by Joe Gavazzi each week in the POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS, there are (6) Guest Handicappers.  For a detailed background on each of these handicappers go to JoeGavazziSports.com/Guest Handicappers. 

We welcome (2) new Guest Handicappers to the POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS this season.  They are YOUNG BLOOD SPORTS, whose expertise is NFL and NHL, and TOUCHDOWN TONY, whose ACC connections will surely deliver us gridiron gold.  Missing from the rotation, as she is from time to time, is Cheetah Leggins.  In Preseason discussions, Cheetah got “sassy”, once again, and has now been placed on “probation”, once again.  Err in haste, Cheetah, repent at leisure. 


Mark Harlan… East Coast Insider

There has not been a more consistent contributor of pointspread winners to these pages than Harlan.  Many of the weeks, the selections are easy winners.  Last year, he completed the Regular Season tied with Joe’s Dog of the Day for the Pointspread Crown only to lose in OT.  This guy is a winner. 

Touchdown Tony… CFB ACC Insider

When you read Tony’s riches to rags to riches story, you will be rooting for him to win every week.  Tony and I have been through some tough times together (mostly mine) and have each rebounded with success.  Track him each week in his inaugural season in PSP.

Dave Parsoni … Bon Vivant and World Traveler

Even when Parsoni is gallivanting around the globe, he is still keeping in contact with his BIG 10 inside sources and close connections to the Clemson program.  A voluminous reader with a brilliant mind, expect these qualities to once again translate to pointspread success for PSP readers. 


The Breakfast Club… North Philly Money Movers 

This East Coast Syndicate, so named because they meet in the same diner each morning for breakfast, return once again this season to deliver insight and inside information into the world of the NFL.  The regular contact is the sartorially attired Bruno whose communication is often both sarcastic and deprecating.  After a losing week, if Bruno is still pouting, I am often contacted by Nick, his top lieutenant, who is far more rational and seldom strays above the think line.  That emotional balance is in no small part a reason for their extraordinary success.

Young Blood Sports… Keepin’ it fresh

Many of you took advantage of this young handicapper’s NHL expertise when he had an amazing run on the ice in early spring.  This year, he turns his attention to his other love, the NFL.  Let me give you one stat from “Keep on Trackin’” which justifies his outright underdog winner in the PSP each week:  91% winners… the ATS result of the SU winner in an NFL game where the line is 6 or less.  Looking forward to his selection on these pages!  Here is the recent text I received from YBS.  “Thanks to all who followed my NHL run last year.  If you missed out, I will send you a sympathy card with a $20 bill.  This year, I will feature an NFL Moneyline play in PSP.  These will include “WHO LET THE DOGS OUT” (underdog plays) and “MURDERED IN COLD BLOOD” (chalk plays).  Many of you will remember my buddy, “Billy the Barber”, who profited handsomely from my NHL run.  He just texted me “Young Blood, nice to catch up.  I have since blown my NHL winnings on trips to Vegas and lavish meals with fine young ladies.  When are you back in the saddle with more winners?  I can’t wait for NFL to start.”  Ya’ll know the drill, “tail me or fade me, I don’t’ personally give a shit!”    Good luck to all, Young Blood.  Daily and seasonal packages for YBS selections will be available at JoeGavazziSports.com

The Vegas Beard’s … PRO TEASER of the week

Even if you are just doing this for TV money, everybody enjoys the concept of the 6 point NFL 2 team teaser.  Whether you move the line up or down, the experience and expertise of the Vegas Beard gives you the two best values in the Teaser market each and every week.  Enjoy and win!


This most illuminating chart has been a mainstay in the POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS.  Now returning, by popular demand, it is proof positive that the key elements in pointspread outcomes are TURNOVERS and DOMINANCE AT THE POINT OF ATTACK. 


Category% sinceL3Y2020
Double Rushes75%689-176 (79.7% ATS)161-39 (80.5% ATS)
200 Clubs74%376-116 (76.4% ATS)92-31 (74.8% ATS)
+3+ Net TO Margin89%268-26 (91.2% ATS)60-3 (95.2%ATS)
+2 Net TO Margin76%169-53 (76.1%ATS)66-20 (76.7% ATS)

NFL  “Keep on Trackin’”

Category% since 2000L4Y2020
Play any team who outrushed their opponent by 30+ yards75%492-153  (76.3%)92-33 (73.6%)
Play any team with 30+ running attempts if opponent does not87%479-101   (82.6%)97-23 (80.8%)
PLAY AGAINST any team who rushes ball 22 or less times if foe does87%467-493   (83.4%)79-19 (80.6%)
ATS result of SU winner in games where line is 6 or less91%438-65   (87.1%)105-17 (86.0%)
Play any team with a Net TO margin of +3 or more in a game91%142-11   (92.8%)22-2 (91.7%)
Play any team with a Net TO margin of  +2 in a game77%299-74   (80%)39-8 (82.9%)


Make sure to contact us at 724-715-7186 or winningsportsadvice@gmail.com to create a Penthouse Picks package that best fits your timeframe and budget.

Next release of Joe Gavazzi’s POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS, Wednesday, September 1st at 5:00 PM ET



College and Pro Football


“Never any duplication with Joe’s Executive Service Penthouse Picks”

Weekly in Regular Season… Daily in Bowl Season

Here’s what you get…
Joe’s Handicapping Articles, Theories and Selections, including
  • CFB Dog of the Dog  10-3 ATS in 2020
  • CFB Steamroller
  • CFB Hunter Gets Captured by the Game
  • CFB Faux or Fo’real Game of the Week
  • CFB B.U.D. (Big Ugly Dog)
  • CFB W.T.F. (Wrong Team Favored)
  • CFB Perception/Reality
  • NFL Lone Ranger
  • NFL Crusher
  • NFL Over/Under Game of the Week
As well as weekly selections from respected Guest Handicappers
Click “Guest Handicappers” on the site for more information
  • Mark Harlan (9-4 ATS LY)… Legendary East Coast Money Mover
  • Touchdown Tony… Massillon H.S. Football Legend
  • Dave Parsoni… BIG 10 Expert and Clemson Insider
  • Cheetah Leggins R.I.P.
  • The Breakfast Club… Renowned Philly syndicate
  • Young Blood Sports… NFL Money Line Dog
  • The Vegas Beard’s NFL Teaser of the Week


FREE!  Joe’s NFL Exhibition Penthouse Picks (A $295 VALUE)