Monday Night Football Game of the Year
By Joe Gavazzi
Monday, Oct 5th
5% Green Bay (-6)
3% OVER 56-
If the back door continues to swing wide open for the Falcons, we are in a world of hurt. Two weeks ago, they led the Cowboys 39-24 inside 5 minutes. When the smoke cleared, the Cowboys had recovered an onside kick and kicked the game winning field goal for a 40-39 win. Last week was an instant replay with Atlanta leading Chicago 26-10. Final: Chicago 30-26. Now the Falcons are 0-3 SU, playing for their lives, and in a role as underdog where THEY can come through the back door. Their 0-3 SU start is a function of a defense that is allowing 36 PPG and 463 YPG. That last number is more than 100 YPG than the 3-0 SU, ATS Packers are allowing. Green Bay was a sterling 14-4 SU, 11-7 ATS LY, meaning their current run is 17-4 SU, 14-7 ATS. Rogers is playing like he is possessed leading the offense to 41 PPG and 460 YPG while outscoring the opposition by 13 PPG. Could the fact Packers drafted QB Love, along with getting dumped by Danica Patrick, be major motivators for the veteran signal caller? Major turnaround for the Pack is a ground game that, in the 4 previous seasons, has averaged between 103 and 109 RYPG. Not this season! The Packers are among the best in the league rushing for an average of 31 times/gm (an 85% chance for victory) for an average of 172/5.5. That type of ground game can extend a lot of leads and close the back door in the late going. But wait! I’ve saved the best for last. MNF undefeated homers are an 83% play when hosting non-divisional foes.
On the OVER/UNDER side of the equation, it was yet another OVER-whelming week in the NFL. After the completion of the 1:00 PM ET starts (including Thursday), GAMES WERE AVERAGING 61 PPG with an 8-1 OVER record. Though scoring settled down a bit in the later games (2-2 OVER, 38.5 PPG), it was yet another high scoring week for the NFL, with a 10-3 OVER record for games that averaged 54 PPG. Totals again had another strong week for us going 6-1 ATS for a YTD record of 12-4 ATS (75%). To no one’s surprise I have strong indicators pointing to the OVER in tonight’s game. As a result, we will follow the trend for yet another potentially high-scoring shootout.
me. The scoring barrage continues in the NFL as the 15 games for this week to date averaged 52.5 PPG. In games where the TOTAL was 50 or more, the OVER record was 2-1 ATS with only the Lions and Cards failing to go OVER because of 3 QB Murray INTs in the 1st half. Enjoy the game, root for flying footballs and no holding calls.