JOE’S CORNER

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Joe Gavazzi’s

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NBA on an 54-37 ATS (59%)   17-10 ATS Run (63%)

NHL 43-33 (57%) +$3288

MLB  $+2842 Last 8 Days

All Games Locked and Loaded for Friday Action

(4) MLB, (4) NBA & (2) NHL for this evenings action!

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+$2842 MLB Profit

Coinciding with the advent of runline selections we have seen profit of +$2846 in the last 8 days of MLB selections.  With parity continuing across the board — only 3 teams greater than .600 and 3 teams worse than .400 — expect the prices to stay reasonable providing us with our runline selections that turn big favorites into underdogs.  The chart I am presenting below will give us additional ammunition in determining which teams – based on their PLAY ON or PLAY AGAINST OPS rating — will be best suited for run line selections.  Before presenting this chart however, please allow me to introduce it with this information on home teams.

At the beginning of the MLB Season, home teams were winning barely more than 50% of the games.  Increasing numbers of fans in the stands – which will be even truer now that CDC has issued its guidelines of “no masks for the vaxed” has increased the home teams winning percentage.  Entering Thursday action, home teams were 283-257 (52.4%).  More intriguing news in that regard is the AL vs. NL dichotomy; the split shows us that NL home teams are 151-115 (56.7%), while their AL home counterparts are just 132-142 (47.8%).  This is a nice segue into my presentation of OPS home/road dichotomies. 

The chart below shows the OPS home/road differential for each of the 30 teams from best to worst.   Please note however, that it does not take into account Strength of Schedule or Historical Home Field Advantage such as the altitude of Coors Field in Denver.  Just a reminder here:  a team’s OPS number is the sum of its OPS batting and its inverted OPS pitching number.  See “This is How We Do It” at JoeGavazziSports.com for my OPS Theory.  FYI:  the home OPS average is 1034.8 compared to 971.1 for road teams.  All data presented is for games thru Wednesday, May 12th.

Rank

Team

H/A Diff

HM Rank

HM OPS

AW Rank

AW OPS

1

Colorado

+263

18

1015

30

752

2

Detroit

+188

23

972

29

784

3

Chicago Cubs

+177

16

1032

28

855

4

Atlanta

+175

13

1044

27

869

5

NY Mets

+165

1-2

1157

15

992

6

Toronto

+161

8

1096

22

935

7

Philadelphia

+146

15

1039

26

893

8

Cincinnati

+145

6

1106

19

961

9

Arizona

+131

11

1053

24

922

10

Miami

+128

10

1058

23

930

11

CWS

+104

4

1167

4

1062

12

LAA

+101

14

1040

20

939

13

Boston

+100

3

1168

2

1068

14

San Francisco

+96

5

1135

8

1039

15

LAD

+94

1-2

1175

1

1081

16

Houston

+46

7

1100

6

1054

17

Kansas City

+37

24-25

964

25

917

18

Washington

+35

19

1000

17

965

19

NY Yankees

+17

9

1078

5

1061

20

St. Louis

+4

12

1051

7

1047

21

Oakland

-5

20

990

13-14

995

22

Seattle

-20

29

917

21

937

23

Minnesota

-31

24-25

964

13-14

995

24

Texas

-36

27

954

16

980

25

Tampa Bay

-41

26

959

12

1000

26

Pittsburgh

-44

28

920

18

964

27-28

San Diego

-45

17

1019

3

1064

27-28

Cleveland

-45

21-22

979

10

1024

29

Milwaukee

-51

21-22

979

9

1030

30

Baltimore

-103

30

914

11

1017

Though this chart is most informative for presenting home/road dichotomies, it also has value in allowing me to isolate (much in the same way as the combined OPS rank) which teams are outperforming or underperforming their W/L percentage rank.  Here are a couple of examples to prove my point: 

Atlanta has an 8-9 road record, 15th best in MLB, but their road OPS number of 869 is good for just the 27th road ranking among all MLB teams.  This indicates a sell sign for Atlanta when playing on the road as the W/L record gravitates toward the OPS performance. 

At the other end of the spectrum is a Boston Red Sox team who is 10-11 at home, good for the 18th best home record.  But their 1066 OPS home mark is 3rd best in the league indicating a difference of 15 positions which makes the Red Sox a PLAY ON team in their home games.

__________________________________________________________________________

Young Blood Sports preps for NHL Playoffs 

HUGE PROFITS AWAIT

Editor’s Note:  Young Blood Sports had an incredible mid-season NHL run before cooling just a bit down the stretch.  Following his 0-2 night of last, I received this message from YBS this AM. 

Where do I begin?  Both of my selections last night could not have been worse.  Things are getting difficult with Playoff implications no longer influencing game outcomes. 

Am I scared?  Absolutely not! 

Excited?  YES!  I’m not sure how many of you are familiar with Playoff  Hockey in the NHL.  In my opinion it is one of the most volatile situations in sports.  Teams get hot, and teams get soft.  BUT THERE IS A SINGULAR METHOD THAT I HAVE STUCK WITH FOR YEARS IN THIS REGARD.  MOMENTUM CARRIES OVER. 

There will be a limited amount of releases early in these Playoff series.  I find it is important to relax, take notes, and enjoy the show.  Once I have a better understanding of who is who and what is what, I WILL HAVE THE UTMOST CONFIDENCE MOVING FORWARD.  In the meantime, there will be some “Best of 7 Series” prices coming your way. 

Thank you for your trust, loyalty and patience.

None of us will be hoisting the Stanley Cup this year, but there is no reason we can’t pad our bankroll. 

Young Blood Sports NHL Playoffs are available at the following price structure:

            $449       All selections thru Stanley Cup presentation

            $295       30 consecutive days

            $14.95    Daily

Click the link that is best for you to sign up today.

You may sign up at JoeGavazziSports.com or by calling 724-715-7186

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MLB OPS WEEKEND NUMBERS

From Joe Gavazzi

These are the (6) PLAY ON OPS teams for this weekend.

Cincinnati, Miami, Minnesota, NY Mets, NY Yankees, Houston

There are your (4) PLAY AGAINST OPS teams for this weekend. 

San Francisco, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Cleveland

Here are the meaningful runline records for the weekend. 

Miami… 12/14 wins by 2+

St. Louis… 14/16 wins by 2+

CWS… 13/16 wins by 2+

Houston… 15/16 wins by 2+

NYY… 15/16 wins (9/9 home) by 2+

Pittsburgh… 16/17 Ls by 2+

Colorado… 15/18 Ls by 2+

Kansas City… 12/15 Ls by 2+  (8/9 home)

Toronto… 10/13 Ls by 2+

Washington… 12/15 Ls by 2+

______________________________________

MLB Monday, May 3rd 

PARITY?… SO SOON 

As I have written before, it has proven to be historically true, that 24 or more of the 30 teams in MLB have a W/L percentage of .400 to .600 at the conclusion of the season.  If you read the article “This is How We Do It”, you will see that the concept of parity is one of the main reasons why my OPS Theory works so well.  This year, after 4 weeks of play, and every team playing less than 30 games (under 20% of the schedule), an amazing 24 out of the 30 teams are playing from .407 to .586 baseball.  Only KC (.615), Milwaukee (.607), and SFG (.607), are above .600.  Note that none of those were projected to be there at the beginning of the season.  That factor alone indicates these teams will return to earth over time.  At the other end of the spectrum is but 3 teams playing less than .400. They are Detroit (.276) and Colorado (.357), along with Minnesota (.358), a team projected to play OVER .500 MLB.  That Minnesota record provides the perfect segue to our next topic.  For it is the Minnesota bullpen, with just a 44% save rate, and a league worst inherited runner scored % that is the worst in MLB.

RATING THE BULLPENS 

IS %… Inherited Runners Scored %.  The league average is 34%.  Here are the 4 worst teams in this category…  62% Minnesota, 51% Philadelphia, 50% LA Angels, 45% Cincinnati.   Here are the 4 best IS % teams… 15% NYY, 19% San Diego, 21% Kansas City, 21% Texas. 

SAVE PERCENTAGE

Simply put, the percentage of games saved by the bullpen under the parameters described by MLB.  The league average is 62%.  Here are the 6 teams who saved less than 50% of their given opportunities… 33% Miami, 36% Arizona, 38% Colorado, 42% Cincinnati, 42% CWS, 44% Minnesota.  Here are the 6 best Save Percentage teams… 100% NYY, 100% Oakland, 88% Toronto, 80% St. Louis, 80% Cleveland, 80% Pittsburgh.

Putting the data together, one could make a case for the fact that, based on these parameters, Minnesota and Cincinnati have the league’s worst bullpens while NYY and Toronto have MLB’s best bullpens.

                ___________________________________________________

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MLB Thursday, April 29th 

CAUGHT IN THE ZIG ZAG… SAY IT ISN’T SO

Yes, it is so… the epitome of horrendous game selection management.  In this very space yesterday, I isolated the fact that the 1st two weeks of MLB had negative results because I was focusing on the “Up arrow teams” (see Tuesday’s report) who fell into the role of underachieving OPS teams, in the role of favorite, who were looking to return to the norm.  When I returned to the research lab, as noted yesterday, it was the “UP ARROW UNDERDOGS” that had gone 21-16, +$4555 at $300 risk/play.  Yesterday was the complete reversal of that.  I switched to using the underdogs (Cincinnati and Colorado) and left out the teams I had been using, with mostly poor results, all week (Minnesota, NYY, Tampa Bay, Miami and Houston, who went 5-0!).  Meanwhile, the NBA was again “saving our bacon” with a 3-1 ATS night running the recent record to 33-19 ATS.

LOOKING AHEAD…

For the remainder of this week, I will mostly stay with the concept of these underdogs which have proven profitable.  Next week, as each team will have played 25-30 games, I will begin to use my UNIQUE and PROPRIETARY RUN LINE METHOD (see “This is How We Do It”) to turn big favorites into underdog winners. 

___________________________________________

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Hope you got in on the Early Season NBA & NHL discount prices.

NBA 25-14 ATS (64%)

NHL 24-12 (67%) $7159

 

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It doesn’t matter what you pay,
IT MATTERS WHAT YOU WIN 
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______________________________________________________

NBA on an 25-14 (64%) Run 

NHL 23-10  (70%)  +$7,693

All Games Locked and Loaded for Sunday Action

_______________________________________________________________________

I WOULD BET INTERNATIONAL PING PONG…

If I knew someone who made money betting international ping pong, I would follow him to the bank. 

And I know you would too because in Sports Betting, as in life, it is often not WHAT you know, but WHO you know. 

Such is the case with the NHL Handicapping prodigy, Young Blood Sports. 

You can read all about Young Blood Sports and how I met this guy by going to JoeGavazziSports.com   After two years of tailing him, I finally talked him into selling his picks at JoeGavazziSports.com   The record has not disappointed.

18-9 +$5575

Introductory prices are ridiculously low.  But they won’t last for long if the selections keep performing at the pace they have for the last two seasons.

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Buy now to tail these winners before the prices go up.

Go to JoeGavazziSports.com/SHOP

or email us at wsa@winningsportsadvice@gmail.com

Or CALL directly at 724-715-7186

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  • 10% Pay After You Win

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______________________________________________________

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It’s who you know…

There’s an old sports betting adage that says “It’s not what you know, it’s who you know”.  That’s exactly the case of a contact I stumbled upon a couple of years ago.  You can read all about that by clicking Young Blood Sports at JoeGavazziSports.com

I know next to nothing about the NHL.  Couldn’t name a coach, heard of maybe 5 to 10 players, and not sure what surface ICE HOCKEY is played on. The only way I could conceivably get involved would be if they widened the net, put in a 2 point arc, and played 4 on 4.  But that ain’t gonna happen.  Like you, if it wins, I wanna bet it.  After 2 years, I finally convinced my contact to sell his “Red Hot, Ice Selections” on JoeGavazziSports.com.  After 5 days, the results have been nothing short of amazing.

10-3 +$4713

His proprietary rating system is 60% PPQ, 70% PPQ, 80%  PPQ, and the rare 90% PPQ.  PPQ stands for PERCENT PROBABILITY QUOTIENT relating to his confidence level the selection will win.  The profit figure above is based on those who risked $100 for every 10% PPQ.  That is to say $600 on the 60% PPQ, etc.  You can adjust your own profit level based on how much you wager.  Personally, I equate a 60% PPQ with a 3% play, and so forth.

This guy lives and breathes NHL, watching almost every game nightly.  Besides his Executive Service, you can add an additional price for his “In Game Picks”.  You won’t get these every night, but when you do you will receive them BY TEXT.  Naturally, there is a bit higher price for these selections, which have been even hotter than his Executive Plays.

I have profited from these selections in recent seasons and advise you do the same.  There are Daily Rates as well as Money Saving Rates for 21 days or for the season (as low as $5/day).

If making money is your objective, check out Young Blood Sports at JoeGavazziSports.com  and sign up for the package that is best for you.  There are two more winners for Monday night available after 2:00 PM ET.

_____________________________________________

Just a couple of quick notes before we begin with selections, which will be out by 1:00 PM ET each day, OR no later than 1 hour before the start of the first game.

  • All selections will be released as “ACTION” plays. This means you do not need to specify starting pitchers in your wager and that we will accept any pitching change and attendant line adjustment.  I strongly recommend using the tenets of my “Money Management System”.  This is available at com.
  • I also recommend that you play each selection RISKING THE AMOUNT OF THE % OF BANKROLL. For your ease of computation, use the following chart below as a guideline for your wagering.
  • Finally, you may click the link to once again read “This is How We Do It” in regards to the methodology of handicapping MLB. Although the teams have played only an average of 9 games (1 set of the normal 3 games I like to have before the minimum of 12 games), we will forge ahead with the data we have for the Monday thru Wednesday selections.
  • Remember, it is usual that the same teams will appear on multiple days of the current team matchup.
Risk Line $300 $400 $500
  To Win To Win To Win
105 285.7 381.0 476.2
110 272.7 363.6 454.5
115 260.9 347.8 434.8
120 250.0 333.3 416.7
125 240.0 320.0 400.0
130 230.8 307.7 384.6
135 222.2 296.3 370.4
140 214.3 285.7 357.1
145 206.9 275.9 344.8
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       

____________________________________________

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S.O.S. AND EARLY SEASON SUCCESS IN MLB 

History tells us that at the end of any MLB Season, over the course of 162 game schedule, 24 to 26 teams will gravitate to playing .400 to .600 baseball.  Call it parity, the random bounce of the ball, or anything you’d like.  It is an historical fact.  This is more true in MLB than in any other sport.

As a result, early season win/loss percentages can often appear skewed based on a team’s projected number of victories for the season.  The reason for this can often be attributed to a team’s S.O.S. (strength of schedule).  Consider that, after two weeks of the season, the following facts are true.

  • 73-102  The combined record of the 14 MLB teams who played the most difficult schedule.
  • 112-83  The combined record of the teams who played the 16 easiest schedules.

Admittedly, those are back-fitted numbers which are difficult to project before the season begins.  The real question is how can we use them to our benefit going forward?  For that we turn to looking at our OPS selections.  In theory, these plays should be strengthened if our PLAY ON team has faced a comparatively more difficult schedule while their opponent has faced a relatively weak schedule.  Here is an example from this weekends matchups.  Consider the case of San Francisco visiting Miami this weekend.

At 8-4, the Giants have the 3rd best record in the league.  Consider that may well be due in part to the #23 ranked schedule.  Also consider that their #8 rank OPS is 5 positions below that #3 W/L rank indicating a PLAY AGAINST team.  In the other dugout is a Miami team whose 5-7 record is good for just the #21-23 W/L rank.  That however, has been compiled against the 5th hardest SOS.  With the Marlins holding the #11 OPS rank (10 positions better than their W/L rank), it all fits nicely into the puzzle of solving the outcome of this week’s series matchup against the visiting Giants.  Other series where similar matchup advantages exist are with Atlanta vs. the Cubs, Washington vs. Arizona, NYY vs. Tampa Bay, Toronto vs. KC.  We will know in 72 hours how well this theory prevailed.

________________________________________________________________

 

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          Joe Gavazzi’s MLB
3%  Wash               (+110)     6-0   WIN     +$330
3%  Miami              (+215)     6-5   WIN     +$645
3%  Minn (Gm 1)    (-140)     2-3   lose     -$300
3%  CWS                 (-110)     8-0   WIN     +$273
4%  Minn (Gm 2)    (-140)    1-7    lose     -$400
                Joe Gavazzi’s NBA  
  4%  Denver           (-5)     123-106    WIN   +$400
3%  Memphis        (+3)    113-114    WIN   +$300
3%  San Antonio   (-5)     112-117     lose    -$315
            Young Blood Sports NHL  
  80%  PPQ  Colorado               (-25)          4-3     WIN    +$600
70%  PPQ  Minnesota        (-1 ½ +141)    5-2     WIN    +$987
60%  PPQ  Vegas               (-1 ½ +126)     6-2     WIN  + $756

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__________________________________________________

 

YBS Executive Service Plays

Specializing in NHL and more…
Using the proprietary PPQ Rating System
 JoeGavazziSports.com/SHOP

 

YBS Text Club

Join the

Young Blood Sports Text Club

and increase your profit.

For those of you who love action,
Young Blood Sports offers “In Game selections”. 
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but when they pop you get an instant text alert!
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Introducing Young Blood Sports 

It was December of 2019, before the whole 2020 pandemic thing began.  I was sitting in a local sports bar, enjoying the fact I could watch multiple Bowl games on big screens.  Fans were cheering wildly, mostly because they had a financial interest at stake.

That’s why what happened next was so unusual.  Out of the corner of my eye I noticed a young guy, intently attuned to his phone.  Nothing unusual there!  He was at the far end of the bar, occasionally looking at the screen in front of him.  What was unusual was that he was focused on hockey, in the midst of Bowl Season.  And the reason he was so interested in his phone is that he was watching another hockey game.

Intrigued, I approached him and introduced myself.  He said he knew who I was, and respected my work.  But his love was hockey!  As it turned out, he is a damn good hockey handicapper.  I can attest to that after following more winners than losers from him for the last couple years.  What I also love is his tag line, “Tail me, or fade me. I don’t personally give a shit”.  When I asked him why he was so passionate about sports handicapping he said, “I guess it’s just in my blood.”  Thus was born “Young Blood Sports.”  Along with the hockey, there are other selections, such as UFC, Golf, Horses, and more.  These winners are the perfect complement to the more traditional sports.

Introducing the PPQ – Percent Probability Quotient Rating System.

As you have correctly assumed from the above, Young Blood is supremely confident in his selections.  That confidence is translated by his PPQ Rating System.  The ratings range from 60% to the rare 90% play, and represent his level of confidence that the selections will cash.  If winning is your goal, Young Blood Sports is for you.

Currently, the selections are available exclusively on this site.  Go to  JoeGavazziSports.com/SHOP

.  You can “Tail ‘em or fade ‘em.  He personally doesn’t give a shit!”

__________________________________________________

Welcome to the 2021 MLB Season

Games for Monday, April 12th

NBA is now up for Monday as well.

Just a couple of quick notes before we begin with selections, which will be out by 1:00 PM ET each day, OR no later than 1 hour before the start of the first game.

  • All selections will be released as “ACTION” plays. This means you do not need to specify starting pitchers in your wager and that we will accept any pitching change and attendant line adjustment.  I strongly recommend using the tenets of my “Money Management System”.  This is available at com.
  • I also recommend that you play each selection RISKING THE AMOUNT OF THE % OF BANKROLL. For your ease of computation, use the following chart below as a guideline for your wagering.
  • Finally, you may click the link to once again read “This is How We Do It” in regards to the methodology of handicapping MLB. Although the teams have played only an average of 9 games (1 set of the normal 3 games I like to have before the minimum of 12 games), we will forge ahead with the data we have for the Monday thru Wednesday selections.
  • Remember, it is usual that the same teams will appear on multiple days of the current team matchup.
Risk Line $300 $400 $500
  To Win To Win To Win
105 285.7 381.0 476.2
110 272.7 363.6 454.5
115 260.9 347.8 434.8
120 250.0 333.3 416.7
125 240.0 320.0 400.0
130 230.8 307.7 384.6
135 222.2 296.3 370.4
140 214.3 285.7 357.1
145 206.9 275.9 344.8
150 200.0 266.7 333.3
155 193.5 258.1 322.6
160 187.5 250.0 312.5
165 181.8 242.4 303.0
170 176.5 235.3 294.01
175 171.4 228.6 285.7
180 166.7 222.2 277.8
185 162.2 216.2 270.3
190 157.9 210.5 263.2
195 153.8 205.1 256.4
200 150.0 200.0 250.0

_____________________________________________________

NICKLE JUICE A MUST

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CALL Customer Service at 888-446-8151  or  Click on LOOSE LINES

Use Code Joe 150 to get your FREE SIGN UP BONUS

_________________________________________________________

 
What a roll.  NBA on a 12-4 run
If you signed up for MLB last week (selections begin Monday), you got this week’s NBA for FREE.
In the last 5 days, these NBA selections are 12-4 ATS (75 %!).  $100 / % of bankroll players made $2540 PROFIT!
That is enough to have paid for your Annual Subscription ($2495) and still buy lunch!
I will extend this offer until 7:00 PM ET on MONDAY EVENING.
Call or respond to this email for your ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION including today’s NBA winners. 
Also, if you signed up for any Spring Sports, I will apply that money toward your Annual Subscription.

NBA 12-4 ATS (75%) L5Days    

$100 / % of bankroll players made $2540 PROFIT

Get your ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION for just $2495 

I have extended this offer until 7:00 PM ET on MONDAY

CALL NOW at 724-715-7186    
Email us at wsa@joegavazzisports.com    
___________________________________________

“DON’T LET THE BACK DOOR HIT YOU IN THE BUTT”

We entered Friday’s NBA action on a 9-1 run the last 3 days.  By mid-game, it appeared we were on our way to another 4-0 ATS sweep.  Chicago led by 13 at the half, Memphis led by 13 in the mid 4th, and Denver was up by 11 with 3 minutes left.  New Orleans, a 6 point home dog, was in the lead.  Then it happened.  Chicago, Memphis and Denver all allowed the back door to swing wide open resulting in a 1-3 ATS day.  The lesson to be learned once again, “don’t count your NBA chickens before their hatched”.  Now we are 10-4 ATS L4D.

NBA for Saturday is locked and loaded!

____________________________________________

NBA ABLAZE 9-1 ATS run 4-0 ATS Thursday  Bulls, Mavs, Clips, Jazz romp by 53!

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*** The VAUNTED 6% Plays ***

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20-7 (74%) This CFB & CBKB Season

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GAMES ARE UP FOR FRIDAY

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____________________________________________ 

NICKLE JUICE A MUST 

What you save is what you earn!  I have saved a lot of “juice” this Football and Basketball Season by playing at Loose Lines.  You can do the same.  Get Nickle juice now!

CALL Customer Service at 888-446-8151  or  Click on LOOSE LINES

Use Code Joe 150 to get your FREE SIGN UP BONUS

________________________________________________________ 

NBA… THIS IS HOW WE DO IT!

Even without the effects of a pandemic, the NBA is a long and grueling grind.  It normally exceeds 100 games for teams in the NBA Finals.  As a result, what happens in the first couple months of the season is often not indicative of the current form of the team.  Injuries, trades and chemistry can change tremendously through the course of the season.  THAT IS WHY THE BEST WAY TO HANDICAP THE NBA IS WITH A RECENCY MODEL.   I use two Recency Models.  One is based on the highly successful RAT Model I built for CBKB handicapping.  The other is a computer based model which isolates current form.  Together, these will isolate our daily plays which will perform as well as any you can find.

Once the NBA Playoffs begin, it’s a whole new ballgame.  The Recency Models are again indicative, but with teams playing the same opponent for as long as a 7 game set, it is important to understand the value of the Zig/Zag Model.  Simply stated, it means playing ON the team who lost the previous game of the series.  Though this simple idea normally provides nominal profit, there are key parameters and tighteners which push this level of success to over 60%.

Here’s hoping you join me for the success we will have during Springtime in the NBA.  Go to joegavazzisports.com/SHOP to sign up and join us. 

MLB…THIS IS HOW WE DO IT!

With the advent of the 2002 movie “Money Ball”, sabermetric handicapping has become a major part of a handicapper’s analysis when betting the bases.  Since that time, I used just about every metric available in search of a methodology which would provide consistent winners.  In the final analysis, I emerged with my “OPS Theory of MLB Handicapping”.

This OPS Theory, simplified, is the sum of a team’s OPS batting, plus the inverse to 1.000, of a team’s pitching.  After ranking these numbers for each team from 1-30, I then compare it to the W/L rank of each MLB team.  When there is a difference of 5 or more positions, we have a play. That is to say, a PLAY ON a team if their OPS rank is 5 points superior to their W/L rank, and PLAY AGAINST a team if their OPS rank is 5 points inferior to their W/L rank.  As a subjective opinion, I compare the bullpen OPS rank of each team.

In OPS, a walk counts one for on-base and zero for slugging, while any hit counts one for on base and the number of bases for slugging.  So counting both OBA and SLG, a single counts 2 and a homer 5.  These are in about the same proportion as in linear weights.  That is why OPS works so well.

I perform the operation of OPS rankings every Monday and Thursday morning prior to the start of each new series.  That is why you often see the same teams on the selection sheet in consecutive days.  When plays are mutually exclusive, I immediately exclude them from consideration.  In addition, I break down the plays into 4 distinct classifications.

ON home teams

ON away teams

AGAINST home teams

AGAINST away teams

What about pitching?  Of course it is important!  But starting pitching is accurately reflected in the line, my OPS Model includes pitching, and the Bullpen OPS is now worth 33% of the pitching handicap.

As a further consideration, I EXCLUDE money line plays where the line is more than 1.50.  Games where the line is more than 1.50 are included as run line selections only when my run line chart, which I update daily, shows that a PLAY ON or PLAY AGAINST team qualifies in an over 80% situation.

RUN LINE WINNERS 

Dating to 2010, I have tracked the result of every MLB game, home and away, by margin of victory of 2 runs or more.  With 9 years of data in the rear view mirror, there is one salient conclusion that can be made:

MLB TEAMS WIN THE GAME BY 2 OR MORE RUNS 74% OF THE TIME

Because the home team does not bat in the bottom of the 9th if leading, and the road team is always looking to secure as large a lead after batting in their half of the 9th inning, the 9 year average shows road teams to win a game by 2 or more runs 74% of the time while home teams win a game by 2 or more runs, 68% of the time.

In 2019, however, these Run line results increased to 71% for home and 77% for away teams, or a combined result of 74% that the winning score is 2 or more runs.

The question often asked is to how I use this run line data.  I first handicap the contest with a basis of the handicapping being my OPS rankings.  I then check the betting line and my MLB 80% team trends to see if I can turn a favored team into an underdog price.  When that happens, I feel comfortable making it a run line play.

The explanation of this model may seem a bit intricate as described above.  I assure you however, that the OPS indicator is the best metric I have found for isolating MLB winners.  Combined with my unique and proprietary run line methods, this analysis provides a healthy profit in an MLB Season.  You can do these many hours of work yourself each day of the week, or you can follow my conclusions for as little as $5/day by signing up at joegavazzisports.com/SHOP

Joe Gavazzi

CALL NOW at 724-715-7186

Email us at wsa@joegavazzisports.com

or go to joegavazzisports.com/shop

_______________________________________________________________

A MOST CHALLENGING YEAR 

It has been over a year, March 12, 2020, since they pulled the plug on all National sporting events.  We were fortunate to get a reprieve of sorts with the most recent Football and Basketball Seasons being played.  Yet, it was never the same as before.  Whether COVID forced postponements or cancellations of games, or merely hung over our heads as a background to the action, the pandemic remained the greatest influence of sporting events in the previous 8 months.  I acknowledge it is important to keep this in perspective.  That is, it paled in comparison to the millions of lives lost and the tragedy suffered by many families.  Nonetheless, the disruption in scheduling that was caused, including the effects of the “pandemic pause”, made handicapping the past 8 months events one of the most challenging in the lengthy time of this bureau’s existence.

Most importantly, I wish to express my gratitude to all those of you who showed the loyalty and commitment to ride out what has been a stormy 8 months.  As more arms get vaccinated, and the economy again begins to open, we can all only hope that life begins its return to normalcy.  We all wish that by the beginning of 2021 football, including the expanded 17 game NFL Regular Season, that the influences of the pandemic will be considerably less.

Through all of the turmoil that we have suffered, there was clearly one shining light.  That was the record of our 6% plays which went a combined 20-7 ATS (74%) this CFB and CBKB Season, including a run of 7-1 ATS (87%) to complete the campaign.  As a result, these vaunted 6% plays draw the spotlight for what can only be termed the …

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__________________________________________________
 

CALL US at 724-715-7186 or respond to this email

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___________________________________________________

NCAA National Championship Game 

Gonzaga (-4-) vs. Baylor  9:20 PM ET CBS  Indianapolis, IN 

BY THE NUMBERS… It has been an NCAA Tourney with even more upsets and surprises than usual in the last 19 days.  In the end however, it is clear that the Nation’s 2 best teams will be playing for the National Title.  The numbers bear this to be true.  In the highly respected Ken Pom Ratings, we find that these teams are 1st (Gonzaga) and 2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency.  In a surprise to many, the Zags hold the defensive edge with the #8 to #27 ranking for Baylor.  Remember, this rating is not purely about points allowed, it is about number of points/100 possessions that an opponent scores.  Therefore, though Gonzaga gives up more points than Baylor, due to their high-scoring offense, their opponents get more possessions, from which they score at a lower rate of efficiency.  With edges of 3.0 on offense, and 1.9 on defense, the combined number is slightly more than the pointspread.  That number is slightly offset by the fact that Baylor has played a slightly more difficult schedule than the Zags making this impost right where it should be according to “the numbers”.  Each team is superbly coached, has a balanced starting 5, quality depth, and hunger to bring the respective schools their 1st National Title.  So where is our edge?

THE REALITY CHECK…  It has been 12 games since Baylor returned from their 21 day pandemic pause.  They struggled through the first 7 games back going 2-5 SU, ATS culminating with their CCT loss to Oklahoma State.  Since the beginning of NCAA play however, they have returned to their mid-season form.  They will enter this Title Game with great confidence following wins of 9 or more in every Tourney game. Even though an underdog, they will not lack for confidence especially seeing the vulnerability of Gonzaga in their Saturday night escape from UCLA.  For many, the Baylor Bears will be considered to be a “live underdog”.

It is, however, that narrow win by Gonzaga which provides us with the key mental edge in this game.  Having defeated 27 consecutive opponents by double digits, including their 4 previous NCAA rivals by 16 or more points, the Zags may certainly have been a bit overconfident realizing they were 14 point chalk over a #11 seeded UCLA team.  The Bruins used their own positive momentum and the mental edge of underdog to give the Zags their biggest scare of the season since December 2nd vs. West Virginia.  Forewarned is forearmed.   Thus, with the mental edge of that narrow victory working in their favor, I expect Gonzaga to return to the mental and physical sharpness that characterized their previous tourney games.  In short, it is the REALITY CHECK that was the narrow victory over UCLA which provides us with a mental edge in this game leading to my STRONG OPINION ONLY on the Zags in tonight’s Tourney Title Clash!  In a matchup of perimeter power, best edge on the inside is the Zags Drew Timme vs. the Baylor duo of Thamba and Vital.

NBA play for Monday

3%  Sacramento (-4-) 7:05 PM ET 

Next release for NBA Tuesday, April 6th  by 1:00 PM ET

___________________________________________________

NCAA Final Four Up Now included FREE in Spring

Packages for NBA & MLB  

Go to SHOP on this site and check them out

___________________________________

 

38-18 ATS and 19-7 ATS   BETA TEST RESULTS confirm success of Recency Theory

NBA winners begin today for as low as $5/day

  • Read “NBA… This is How We Do It” (Below)
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____________________________________________

NICKLE JUICE A MUST 

What you save is what you earn!  I have saved a lot of “juice” this Football and Basketball Season by playing at Loose Lines.  You can do the same.  Get Nickle juice now!

CALL Customer Service at 888-446-8151  or  Click on LOOSE LINES

Use Code Joe 150 to get your FREE SIGN UP BONUS

________________________________________________________ 

NBA… THIS IS HOW WE DO IT!

Even without the effects of a pandemic, the NBA is a long and grueling grind.  It normally exceeds 100 games for teams in the NBA Finals.  As a result, what happens in the first couple months of the season is often not indicative of the current form of the team.  Injuries, trades and chemistry can change tremendously through the course of the season.  THAT IS WHY THE BEST WAY TO HANDICAP THE NBA IS WITH A RECENCY MODEL.   I use two Recency Models.  One is based on the highly successful RAT Model I built for CBKB handicapping.  The other is a computer based model which isolates current form.  Together, these will isolate our daily plays which will perform as well as any you can find.

Once the NBA Playoffs begin, it’s a whole new ballgame.  The Recency Models are again indicative, but with teams playing the same opponent for as long as a 7 game set, it is important to understand the value of the Zig/Zag Model.  Simply stated, it means playing ON the team who lost the previous game of the series.  Though this simple idea normally provides nominal profit, there are key parameters and tighteners which push this level of success to over 60%.

Here’s hoping you join me for the success we will have during Springtime in the NBA.  Go to joegavazzisports.com/SHOP to sign up and join us.

CALL NOW at 724-715-7186
Email us at wsa@joegavazzisports.com
or go to joegavazzisports.com/shop

_________________________________________________________

Lowest prices ever for MLB

PLAY BALL!… 1st pitch is today!

MLB prices as low as $5/day

  • Read “MLB… This is How We Do It” (Below)
  • Then click the link for the package that is best for you.
$189  MLB for 21 days ($9/day)
$450  MLB thru All Star Break (Only $5/day)
       SAVE $$$ … combine with the NBA
$284  MLB + NBA 21 days (SAVE $94)
$750  MLB + NBA thru NBA Playoffs  (Only $7.50/day)

____________________________________________ 

NICKLE JUICE A MUST 

What you save is what you earn!  I have saved a lot of “juice” this Football and Basketball Season by playing at Loose Lines.  You can do the same.  Get Nickle juice now!

CALL Customer Service at 888-446-8151  or  Click on LOOSE LINES
Use Code Joe 150 to get your FREE SIGN UP BONUS

________________________________________________________

MLB…THIS IS HOW WE DO IT!

With the advent of the 2002 movie “Money Ball”, sabermetric handicapping has become a major part of a handicapper’s analysis when betting the bases.  Since that time, I used just about every metric available in search of a methodology which would provide consistent winners.  In the final analysis, I emerged with my “OPS Theory of MLB Handicapping”.

This OPS Theory, simplified, is the sum of a team’s OPS batting, plus the inverse to 1.000, of a team’s pitching.  After ranking these numbers for each team from 1-30, I then compare it to the W/L rank of each MLB team.  When there is a difference of 5 or more positions, we have a play. That is to say, a PLAY ON a team if their OPS rank is 5 points superior to their W/L rank, and PLAY AGAINST a team if their OPS rank is 5 points inferior to their W/L rank.  As a subjective opinion, I compare the bullpen OPS rank of each team.

In OPS, a walk counts one for on-base and zero for slugging, while any hit counts one for on base and the number of bases for slugging.  So counting both OBA and SLG, a single counts 2 and a homer 5.  These are in about the same proportion as in linear weights.  That is why OPS works so well.

I perform the operation of OPS rankings every Monday and Thursday morning prior to the start of each new series.  That is why you often see the same teams on the selection sheet in consecutive days.  When plays are mutually exclusive, I immediately exclude them from consideration.  In addition, I break down the plays into 4 distinct classifications.

ON home teams

ON away teams

AGAINST home teams

AGAINST away teams

What about pitching?  Of course it is important!  But starting pitching is accurately reflected in the line, my OPS Model includes pitching, and the Bullpen OPS is now worth 33% of the pitching handicap.

As a further consideration, I EXCLUDE money line plays where the line is more than 1.50.  Games where the line is more than 1.50 are included as run line selections only when my run line chart, which I update daily, shows that a PLAY ON or PLAY AGAINST team qualifies in an over 80% situation.

RUN LINE WINNERS

Dating to 2010, I have tracked the result of every MLB game, home and away, by margin of victory of 2 runs or more.  With 9 years of data in the rear view mirror, there is one salient conclusion that can be made:

MLB TEAMS WIN THE GAME BY 2 OR MORE RUNS 74% OF THE TIME

Because the home team does not bat in the bottom of the 9th if leading, and the road team is always looking to secure as large a lead after batting in their half of the 9th inning, the 9 year average shows road teams to win a game by 2 or more runs 74% of the time while home teams win a game by 2 or more runs, 68% of the time.

In 2019, however, these Run line results increased to 71% for home and 77% for away teams, or a combined result of 74% that the winning score is 2 or more runs.

The question often asked is to how I use this run line data.  I first handicap the contest with a basis of the handicapping being my OPS rankings.  I then check the betting line and my MLB 80% team trends to see if I can turn a favored team into an underdog price.  When that happens, I feel comfortable making it a run line play.

The explanation of this model may seem a bit intricate as described above.  I assure you however, that the OPS indicator is the best metric I have found for isolating MLB winners.  Combined with my unique and proprietary run line methods, this analysis provides a healthy profit in an MLB Season.  You can do these many hours of work yourself each day of the week, or you can follow my conclusions for as little as $5/day by signing up at joegavazzisports.com/SHOP

Joe Gavazzi

CALL NOW at 724-715-7186

Email us at wsa@joegavazzisports.com

or go to joegavazzisports.com/shop

_____________________________________________________

BUY ONE OF OUR SPRING PACKAGES FOR MLB & NBA AND GET BALANCE OF NCAA ACTION FREE. 

Tuesday’s NCAA Tourney action up now!  These games are fully analyzed.  Be the smartest guy in the room.

_________________________________________________________

College Basketball Executive Selections 

Monday, March 29th

DON’T MAKE A MOVE WITHOUT READING THESE ANALYSES 

As you well know, we have been blitzing the NCAA Tournament with a 6-1 ATS run of 6% plays. Our 9 year record on these beauties is 70%.   You never can tell when one may pop on any given night.  Like tonight, maybe. My game analyses for Monday is presented to you WITHOUT a rating.  They could be rated “Opinion Only”, 3%, 4%, 5% or 6% of bankroll.  These NCAA rated selections, including the ones tonight, are available to you for FREE with any springtime sign up for NBA and MLB  for as low as $5/day.

Read “This Is How We Do It” for both Baseball or NBA and sign up for the package of your choice.  Looking forward to having you along for a profitable ride.  These are the UNRATED Monday night winners. 

NCAA

Houston (-7-) vs. Oregon State  7:15 PM ET CBS

Leave it to Beaver(s).  On February 20th, Oregon State was 11-11 SU appearing as if they may challenge the Huskies and Cougars for the 12th spot in the PAC 12 standings where they were predicted to finish.  Then the magic started.  Since that time, the Beavers are 9-1 SU, ATS including 6 CONSECUTIVE OUTRIGHT UNDERDOG WINNERS in the CCT and NCAA, all as a +5 or more underdog.  Unprecedented… as it is for a #12 seed to be playing in the Elite Eight.  Beating Houston however, the highest ranked team they have faced, would be more problematic than any of those 6 victories.

They are talking PHI SLAMMA JAMMA in H-town, and with good reason.  At 27-3, the Cougars roll in here on a 10 game winning streak in which they have allowed only 1 opponent, Memphis, to score more than 60  points against them.  That clamped down defense is key against a mediocre Beaver attack that prefers a slow pace and solid defense of their own to win against their previous 6 post season opponents.  But this is the wrong matchup for Oregon State.  Houston has 3 quality guards in Grimes, Sasser and Jarreau, the latter a lockdown defender capable of smothering the Beavers best boy, Ethan Thompson.  The Cougars other main advantage is on the glass with a +9.3 net TO margin, many of which come on the offensive end.  Quite simply, this is a bad matchup for the underdog.  In the Elite Eight, seeded teams 4 or higher, coming off 4 consecutive straight up dog wins, have a less than 20% chance to cover against seeds 1,2 or 3.  Here’s your issue:  7 of those 10 Houston victories have come by an average margin of 31 PPG.  The other 3 however, came by margins of 3 or less, 2 against Memphis, and 1 against Rutgers, both teams who feature the same type of profile as this Oregon State team.  One further thought, with the current line and total, the linemaker is predicting that Oregon State will score 61 points.  I would be very surprised if the Beavers reach this number at the projected pace of play against this Houston defense.

Baylor (-7-) vs. Arkansas 10:00 PM ET CBS 

Baylor has held the #2 spot in the land for most of the season.  There were however, some chinks in the armor when they came off their 3 week COVID pause on February 23rd.  A loss to Kansas knocked them from the ranks of the unbeaten. They were then knocked from the BIG 12 CCT by an upstart Ok State team.  That seemed to set off an alarm for the Bears, as with 7 games under their belt since that COVID pause, they entered the NCAA Tourney with a renewed vigor.  All wins have come by double digits in this event where the Bears have allowed just 55 PPG.  The true buy sign however, came Saturday evening when their lockdown defense proved the difference in their 11 point comeback win vs. a quality Villanova team.  A poor 3 point shooting night allowed the final score to be closer than the game really was.  Expect that to change as the Baylor marksmen average 42% on triples.

Must give respect to 2nd year HC Musselman who brought his transfer philosophy from Nevada where he authored multiple NCAA teams.  Per usual, much of a Musselman team’s success came on their home court.  Of more note is the fact that, in Arkansas’s last 5 victories, they trailed each of their opponents by double digits.  Let that happen against a buy sign Baylor team and Arkansas could revisit losses of 31 to Alabama, and 16 to LSU in the SEC campaign, games where they allowed 90 or more points/game.  One final note… it is an over 80% momentum play in the Elite Eight to follow spread winners AGAINST spread losers in their previous game.

_____________________________________________________________

You missed again on my 4-1 ATS Saturday.  But there is still time to get the balance of NCAA Tourney at no cost to you.

Again you missed my 4-1 ATS Saturday     
                                    6% HOUSTON 62-46  WIN!  Cover by 10
                                    5% Baylor  62-51  WIN!  Cover by 4
                                    4% Loyola-Chicago 58-65  Lose
                                    3% Memphis 90-67  WIN!  Cover by 19
                                    3% Miss State 84-62  WIN!  Cover by 22
Compare to your selections, hope you did as well.

7-1 ATS (87%) 6% Run    

20-7 ATS (74%) 6% CFB + CBKB This Season

78-34 ATS (70%) 6% CBKB last 9 years! 

FREE Balance of NCAA Tourney Selections

With your sign up for any Spring NBA or MLB Package, as low as $5/day 

Sign up at JoeGavazziSports.com/SHOP
and get your FREE CBKB

__________________________________

How long are you going to lose with your own opinion
 or the opinion of the talking heads on ESPN?
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Is 100% good enough

4-0 ATS Monday

Every win by 14+ Points! 

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__________________________________________________________          

THIS IS HOW WE DO IT!

We begin the NBA & MLB very soon!!!

NBA… THIS IS HOW WE DO IT!

Even without the effects of a pandemic, the NBA is a long and grueling grind.  It normally exceeds 100 games for teams in the NBA Finals.  As a result, what happens in the first couple months of the season is often not indicative of the current form of the team.  Injuries, trades and chemistry can change tremendously through the course of the season.  THAT IS WHY THE BEST WAY TO HANDICAP THE NBA IS WITH A RECENCY MODEL.   I use two Recency Models.  One is based on the highly successful RAT Model I built for CBKB handicapping.  The other is a computer based model which isolates current form.  Together, these will isolate our daily plays which will perform as well as any you can find.

Once the NBA Playoffs begin, it’s a whole new ballgame.  The Recency Models are again indicative, but with teams playing the same opponent for as long as a 7 game set, it is important to understand the value of the Zig/Zag Model.  Simply stated, it means playing ON the team who lost the previous game of the series.  Though this simple idea normally provides nominal profit, there are key parameters and tighteners which push this level of success to over 60%.

Here’s hoping you join me for the success we will have during Springtime in the NBA.  Go to joegavazzisports.com/SHOP to sign up and join us.

MLB…THIS IS HOW WE DO IT!

With the advent of the 2002 movie “Money Ball”, sabermetric handicapping has become a major part of a handicapper’s analysis when betting the bases.  Since that time, I used just about every metric available in search of a methodology which would provide consistent winners.  In the final analysis, I emerged with my “OPS Theory of MLB Handicapping”.

This OPS Theory, simplified, is the sum of a team’s OPS batting, plus the inverse to 1.000, of a team is pitching.  After ranking these numbers for each team from 1-30, I then compare it to the W/L rank of each MLB team.  When there is a difference of 5 or more positions, we have a play. That is to say, a PLAY ON a team if their OPS rank is 5 points superior to their W/L rank, and PLAY AGAINST a team if their OPS rank is 5 points inferior to their W/L rank.  As a subjective opinion, I compare the bullpen OPS rank of each team.

I perform the operation of OPS rankings every Monday and Thursday morning prior to the start of each new series.  That is why you often see the same teams on the selection sheet in consecutive days.  When plays are mutually exclusive, I immediately exclude them from consideration.  In addition, I break down the plays into 4 distinct classifications.

ON home teams

ON away teams

AGAINST home teams

AGAINST away teams

What about pitching?  Of course it is important!  But starting pitching is accurately reflected in the line, my OPS Model includes pitching, and the Bullpen OPS is now worth 33% of the pitching handicap.

As a further consideration, I EXCLUDE money line plays where the line is more than 1.50.  Games where the line is more than 1.50 are included as run line selections only when my run line chart, which I update daily, shows that a PLAY ON or PLAY AGAINST team qualifies in an over 80% situation.

The explanation of this model may seem a bit intricate as described above.  I assure you however, that the OPS indicator is the best metric I have found for isolating MLB winners.  Combined with my unique and proprietary run line methods, this analysis provides a healthy profit in an MLB Season.  You can do these many hours of work yourself each day of the week, or you can follow my conclusions for as little as $5/day by signing up at joegavazzisports.com/SHOP

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****** WE HAVE A WINNER! ******

Tom G.  Won and, not only beat the man, but BEAT EVERYONE!  Congrats Tom and enjoy the rest of the season.

Beat the Man in the Sweet 16!

  • Submit YOUR Sweet Sixteen Bracket to us by 10:00 AM  on Friday, March 18th  via email

  • Pick each Round #1 and Round #2 winner, 48 selections in all, each worth 1 point, most points is winner with 48 a perfect score.

  • Get Joe’s Friday Executive Service FREE just for submitting.

Choose more winners than JOE …

GET THE BALANCE OF

MARCH MADNESS thru Final Four FREE

Special Bonus:  Most points gets Joe’s Executive Service for 2021 FREE
Time to take off the rubberband AND
LET THE FUR FLY
Email us with your Round of 32 and Sweet 16 Bracket at wsa@joegavazzisports.com

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DOGS ARE BARKIN’  28-15  (65%)

14 outright wins

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SUNDAY 6% Baylor 76-63 wire-to-wire

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What Our Clients Have to Say

Nice run, Joe but you know I’m not surprised.  Virtually every year I have been with you since the early 90s there has been a 60% run of 200 or more games.  You may just be the GOAT at College hoop capping.

Steve P

Nice “All Sport Run” as you call it, Joe.  Thanks!  My new part time job is finding more “outs”!

JB

Great December   I feel like I’m stealing.  The lifetime annual fee I paid is like pocket change.

Mark S

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