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THE AFP SOLUTION

The initials AFP stands for “Away From the Pointspread”.  Along with wins and losses, and the raw score of the game, the AFP is a major way in which the linemaker adjusts his ratings for each team.  The linemaker’s season-over-season adjustments are undeniably excellent.  That is why, when results after 3 or more games diverge from his initial opinion, THERE WILL MOST PROBABLY BE A RETURN TO THE NORM. 

We take advantage of that with “The AFP Solution”.  “After 3 games for each team, when our team has a -20 or more AFP, the opponent has a +20 or more AFP, and the sum of these is 50 or more, we look to play the reversal with the negative AFP team.  Read this week’s “Faux or Fo’Real” selection on Iowa State to see this play in action. 

TERRIBLE TURNOVERS

If you are a faithful follower of “Keep on Trackin’”, you know once again this season that Net TO margin is the greatest indicator of pointspread success.  Last week, CFB teams with a +2 or more Net TO margin were 9-0 ATS running the season record in that category to 38-8 ATS (83%).  Listed below are the 5 teams who committed 4 or more turnovers last week.  ALL OF THEM FAILED ATS.  If there is an asterisk (*) in front of the teams name, it indicates they were either a PSP or PHP selection.  As a side bar, it can be noted that only once this season, with our Week #1 selection of Rutgers, did this margin ever work in our favor.

TEAMLINETURNOVERSSCOREOPPONENT
* Florida State+5614-35Wake Forest
* Northwestern-3523-30Duke
* Arizona State-3417-27BYU
   Miami (FL)-6417-38Michigan St
   Indiana+4424-38Cincinnati

I will “Keep on Trackin’” with the confidence these MUST begin to swing our way.

FAUX or FO’ REAL

At the conclusion of each week of the CFB season, I analyze the statistics of each game being played.  When the stats do not match the final score, one must question, are these results Faux or Fo’Real.  Below is a list of (7) CFB games that were played on Saturday, September 18th, Week #3 of the CFB Season.  It is up to the handicapper to decide which of these teams was Faux or Fo’Real. 

FAUX or FO’ REALLINESCORESTATOPPONENT
Utah State+949-45180-437  RYAir Force
BYU+327-17361-426  TYArizona State
Alabama-1531-2988-258  RYFlorida
San Jose State-717-1356-127  RYHawaii
Cincinnati-438-24328-376  TYIndiana
Marshall-1038-42647-571  TYEast Carolina
Mississippi State-329-31419-159  PYMemphis

PERCEPTION/REALITY

Each week, there are normally 5 to 10 teams who win the game outright as an underdog of 6 or more points.  The handicapper’s conundrum is whether this victory was well earned (a reality) or undeserved (a perception).  The following is a list of games played Saturday, September 18th in which there was an outright win by an underdog of 6 or more points, along with a key statistic which might sway your opinion as to whether the victory was a Perception or a Reality.

UNDERDOG WINNERLINESCOREAFPKEY STATLOST AS FAVORITE
Western Michigan+1544-41+18160-75 RY edge, +3 Net TOPittsburgh
Colorado State+1422-6+30211-21 RY edgeToledo
Fresno State+1140-37+14569-395 TYUCLA
East Carolina+1043-38+15571-647 TY, +2 Net TOMarshall
San Diego State+933-31+11204-70 RYUtah
Utah State+949-45+13180-437 RYAir Force
Louisville+742-35+14501-420 TYUCF
Michigan State+638-17+27193-52 RY, +4 Net TOMiami, FL

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JOE GAVAZZI’S WEEKLY CFB SELECTIONS 

Saturday, Sept 11th 

Joe Gavazzi’s DOG of the DAY!   (1-0)

Rice (+8) 6:30 PM ET

Last week’s DOD barked home a winner (or do I mean “barfed”, outrushed 400-92) with the Florida Atlantic Owls.  This runs the record to a PSP leading 11-4 ATS L1+Y.   THESE Owls however, were letting us down as a 3% PHP selection.  Leading 17-7 in the 3rd vs. Arkansas, they gave up 31 consecutive points to fail by 1 point to the number.  Losing 3 turnovers was a big key.  An overrated Houston team, led by HC Holgorsen, who has a 54-68 ATS lifetime mark, was badly outplayed by Texas Tech being outgained 376-251 in a 21-38 to TTRR.  Much like the Owls, committing 4 turnovers was their undoing.  Much more is always expected of a Holgorsen coached team who annually fails to live up to its Preseason hype.  At the other end of the spectrum is a Rice team who has been slowly building to a crescendo under HC Bloomgren, who has increased their win percentage in all 3 seasons he was at the helm.  With only 4 miles between these schools, we will take the generous points with Rice who could begin to continually outperform linemaker expectations now that Power 5 Nebraska transfer, QB McCaffrey, a dual threat, is at the helm.  This upset is no surprise to this bureau.

Joe Gavazzi’s STEAMROLLER of the Week   (0-1)

SMU (-22-)  7:00 PM ET

It was just 3 short years ago, at the close of the 2018 Season, that now 6th year North Texas HC Littrell recorded consecutive 9 win seasons and was rumored to be headed to Power 5 pastures.  In the last two years however, the bottom has fallen out with a combined record of 8-14 SU, 5-15 ATS.  The reason for last year’s debacle was a defense that got “200 Clubbed” for 43/508.  Why would 10 returning starters on that side of the ball strike fear into the hearts of any opposing offense?  It certainly did not last week when NW State, a 44-14 loser to the Mean Green, committed 4 turnovers BUT STILL PUT UP 418 YARDS.  Only one thing we can expect from an SMU attack that went for 56/501 in their 47 point opening victory against out-manned ABC.  Not  satisfied with taking a back seat to QB Rattler at Oklahoma, Sooner transfer QB Mordecai threw for 317 PY and 7 TDP.  He will certainly be licking his chops all week at the site of this Mean Green defense.  Wire-to-wire Steamroller for SMU!

Joe Gavazzi’s THE HUNTER GETS CAPTURED BY THE GAME  (1-0)

Ball State (+23)  3:30 PM ET

After the adoring fans of Happy Valley have celebrated the Wisconsin upset, 16-10 as +5, all week, how do the Penn State players, with the realization they host Auburn on this field next week, ever get excited about hosting MAC rep Ball State this Saturday.  That was exactly the situation that faced these visiting Cardinals last week in their “warm-up game” hosting Western Illinois.  Just one short year ago, then 5th year HC Neu, was on the hottest of seats after an opening day loss at Miami (OH).  The Cards then ripped off 7 straight victories, the last 3 as underdog, including 38-28 (as +12) vs. Buffalo to win the MAC Title, and 34-13 as +8 vs. then undefeated San Jose to win their Bowl game.  With 20 starters returning, and a 34/448 offense led by QB Plitt, THIS IS THE GAME to which Ball State has been pointing!   At worst, the back door swings wide open for this explosive Ball State offense as Penn State “gets captured by their game last week at Wisconsin”!

Joe Gavazzi’s FAUX or FO’ REAL Game of the Week   (0-1)

Army (-6-)  11:30 AM ET 

In my Preseason sketch of Western Kentucky, I advised the upcoming offensive outburst by last year’s lethargic Hilltopper team.  The reason:  Houston Baptist transfer QB Zappe who brought along his own OC, Kittley, and a trio of his best receivers.  “Zap”, just like that!  The Hilltoppers, who averaged 19 PPG LY, and did not exceed 25 PPG since 2016, exploded for a 59-21 victory vs. T-Mart when Zappe led an aerial assault of 478 PY with 7 TDP.   It says in this analysis however, that Zap’s performance against T-Mart will not be FO’ REAL once he gets to the banks of the Hudson.  There he will meet an Army defense who allowed just 15/276 LY, best in the country.  With 8 starters returning to that side of the ball, they slowed a powerful Georgia State offense allowing them just 10/177 including 129 PY.  Army ground game was solid, if not spectacular, with 258 RY leading to a 43-10 Cadets victory.  Zap will find out today that you can’t “do what?”, SCORE!, “ without the what?”, the BALL!  And that will be the Hilltoppers downfall as they allowed 201/6.4 last week to T-Mart.  Look for the Cadets to control the ball and the clock in grounding out a comfortable double digit victory.

Joe Gavazzi’s THIS B. U. D. (BIG UGLY DOG) is for you!   (0-1)

Eastern Michigan (+26)  7:00 PM ET

Could the Badgers be ready to smack someone after they outrushed Penn State, 174-50, but allowed a -3 Net TO margin that devolved into a 10-16 loss?   OR, DO THEY LOOK RIGHT PAST this “little brother” with attention focused on their next two opponents, Notre Dame and Michigan.  Even in motoring for 174 RY vs. Penn State, the ground game more resembled the 165/3.9 of LY, rather than their previous outputs of at least 223/5.0 each of the previous 3 years.  Plenty of kinks to work out for the offense behind QB Mertz.  Of equal importance is the job done by 8th year E. Mich HC Creighton.  It was the 5th losing season in 7 years for the Eagles in 2020, 2-4 SU.   But that is not how HC Creighton has made his mark.  Consider that, in the last 5 seasons, his Eagles are now 22-3 ATS as road or neutral dog.  Eagles may not be competitive in this game, but history says they have an outstanding chance to come in under the number against a Wisconsin team who, under 7th year HC Chryst, is just 14-20 ATS as home favorite. 

Joe Gavazzi’s WTF (Wrong Team Favored) Game of the Week   (1-0)

Navy (+6) 3:30 PM ET   

Maybe this bureau is the only one who feels Navy should be favored in this game.  After all, their 49-7 embarrassment on this field at the hands of Marshall last week was the 6th consecutive defeat for the Middies.   Consider this however:  how would you like to have an underdog who controlled the ball for 41/60 minutes, had a positive Net TO margin, and outrushed the opposition 337-101?  You’d be going to the betting window with both fists full of money.  That was exactly the case last week when the Middies trailed wire-to-wire against a Marshall team who “passed them silly” for 363 PY.  Enter Air Force who, based on the fact they averaged 84 PYPG LY,  and threw for just 50 PY last week in their 35-14 rout of Lafayette, do not figure to present the same challenge through the airways.  There was certainly nothing amiss with the Middie option last week as they ran 77 times for 337 RY while holding the Hilltoppers to 101/3.4.  Last year’s 40-7 loss at Air Force was typical of this series, in the regard that THE HOME TEAM HAS NOW WON 8 STRAIGHT GAMES IN THIS MATCHUP WITH THE UNDERDOG GETTING THE ALPO EACH OF THE LAST 4.  Off an embarrassing loss and with blowout revenge, that’s why Navy is the WTF in this week’s PSP. 

Joe Gavazzi’s PERCEPTION/REALITY Game of the Week   (0-1)

Mid Tennessee State (+20) 2:00 PM ET   

Easy PERCEPTION here is that VA Tech has been reborn from their Friday Night Lights upset of North Carolina and will cruise to the winning side of the ledger after missing their first Bowl game last year since they fought with swords.  The REALITY is that win was based more on emotion than statistics as they were outrushed and outpassed by the Heels.  With regional rival West Virginia dead ahead, this is what is known as a “sandwich” game against a CUSA invader from the south.  The perception also may be that this will be, yet another, less than mediocre contingent of Blue Raiders in the mold of teams who went 7-14 SU L2Y.  Their Week #1 win, 50-15, albeit against Monmouth, could well be a harbinger.  Enter Power 5 transfer QB Hockman (from Florida State and NC State), who will line up behind 4 OL starters and 7/8 top WRs.  A defense that returns intact is a year older and wiser.  If not competitive from jump, the back door could well swing wide open for the Raiders when the Hokie thoughts drift to their game at Morgantown next week. 

JOE GAVAZZI’S WEEKLY NFL SELECTIONS  

Sunday, Sept 12th

Joe Gavazzi’s NFL LONE RANGER Game of the Week

New Orleans (+4)  4:25 PM ET

Easiest contrary play on the board to pick!   This game originally opened at “New Orleans (-3)”.  Then came the announcement that QB Winston would be the Game #1 starter.  All the public remembers is his 30 INT season of 2019.  Under the tuteledge of Saints HC Payton, and with a year as understudy to now retired QB Brees, Winston has become a signal caller with a different mindset.  That announcement was followed by Hurricane Ida which displaced the Saints to Dallas and rescheduled this game, two weeks hence to Jacksonville.  Along with all the good vibes that Green Bay’s re-signed QB Rodgers has created by saying “all the right things” in his media interviews, it is no surprise that, by kickoff, over 80% of the public will be lining up on the Packers.  Its games like this where you, and I, and the Lone Ranger make our NFL money. 

Joe Gavazzi’s NFL CRUSHER  of the Week 

Buffalo (-6-)  1:00 PM ET  

Some expect a resilient Pittsburgh team, who started 11-0 SU last year, but finished 1-5 SU LY, to bounce back big.  Those people are relying on the adage that “defense wins football games”.  That however, will be all the Steelers can take to the bank this season.  Their dismal decline was characterized by their lack of overland success as the season wore on.  In the first 5 games of the season, they outrushed their foes by an average of 137-66 YPG.  The defense was staunch enough that in their 11-0 SU start, they were outscoring the opposition 29-17.  Beginning with the final victory in that opening streak however, they were outrushed 129-68 by Baltimore.  In the last 6 games, they never ran for more than 86 yards while allowing the opposition to rush for 127 or more in the final four games of the season.  An offense that averaged 29 PPG in their undefeated start, allowed 29 PPG in the 1-5 SU finish.  In attempting to rectify the situation, the Steelers brain trust is ENLISTING AN ALL NEW OL.  That’s bad news for a 39 year old, immobile signal caller such as Big Ben.  Among that late season meltdown was a game on this field vs. a 9-3 SU Buffalo team who was enroute to an 11-2 SU finish to their season.  The 26-15 final could have been worse as the Bills had overland edges of 104-47 and a total yardage edge of 230-177.  Steelers’ HC Tomlin has not had a losing season in 14 years. This could be the beginning of the end of that streak against a Bills team with by far the superior offense and a solid defense which, in the last two seasons combined, has allowed just 20/331. 

Joe Gavazzi’s NFL OVER/UNDER Game of the Week

UNDER (48) Cincinnati   1:00 PM ET

Shortly after mid-season of 2020, our NFL money machine, Minnesota HC Mike Zimmer, changed his stripes.  At that time, Zimmer had a 68-39 ATS NFL record.  It was, in no small part, attributable to a defense, that in the previous 3 seasons, had allowed just 19 PPG leading the Vikes to a 3 year mark of 33-18 SU.  Then the defense disappeared.  In the final 7 games, the Vikings allowed 33.6 PPG and Zimmer never covered another spread.  A lack-luster August leaves the fate of the Vikings as a major question mark in the mind of their bettors.  Such is also the case with the Bengals who were looking for respectability before an ACL injury to QB Burrow derailed their offensive hopes.  The return of Burrow may renew hope in the Queen Town.  But the truth is that, under 3rd year HC Taylor, this team has averaged just 18/321 per game.  With the Vikings now placing an emphasis on defense and a return to the ground game, I can see this game slogging to a halt resulting in UNDER 48 providing a winning ticket.

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THE POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS GUEST HANDICAPPERS 

Along with the (7) CFB and (3) NFL selections by Joe Gavazzi each week in the POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS, there are (6) Guest Handicappers.  For a detailed background on each of these handicappers go to JoeGavazziSports.com/Guest Handicappers.   

We welcome (2) new Guest Handicappers to the POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS this season.  They are YOUNG BLOOD SPORTS, whose expertise is NFL and NHL, and TOUCHDOWN TONY, whose ACC connections will surely deliver us gridiron gold.  Missing from the rotation, as she is from time to time, is Cheetah Leggins.  In Preseason discussions, Cheetah got “sassy”, once again, and has now been placed on “probation”, once again.  Err in haste, Cheetah, repent at leisure.   

COLLEGE FB GUEST HANDICAPPERS 

Mark Harlan… East Coast Insider   (0-0-1)

Rutgers (-2)  2:00 PM ET   

    Selection by Mark Harlan; commentary by Joe Gavazzi

Harlan opened with a “push” on these pages last week with “UCF -5”.  He and his group won the selection laying 3.5 and 4 in a game where the line closed at -6.5.  Hope you got the push as well.  He clearly had the right side as QB Gabriel threw a 100 yard pick 6 (a 14 point swing) and saw his Knights’ team fall behind 21-0.  They rebounded to “200 Club” the Broncos 573-283 including 255-20 overland.  Harlan feels this selection on the SCARLET Knights will be even more convincing.  Each of these teams had convincing victories last week which, because of a positive TO difference, were more dominant on the scoreboard than in the stat column.  Syracuse won 29-9 against an OU team clearly struggling with the recent retirement of long time HC Solich. Rutgers, a 3% PHP winner, made it look easy on the scoreboard with a 61-14 final.  The true story was a +5 Net TO margin which keyed the 47 point victory despite a 365-261 yardage edge.  Harlan however, believes the Orange victory will prove to be an outlier for a team who was 1-10 SU last season.   Conversely, in the 2nd year under Schiano, he believes this veteran Rutgers team, with 21 returning starters, could well reach a Bowl game this season. 

Touchdown Tony… CFB ACC Insider   (1-0) 

Illinois (+10)  11:00 AM ET

Virginia, in the middle of the pack in both offense and defense in the ACC was “okay” in 2020.  Offense and defense should be somewhat improved in 2021 because both lines are decent.  Illinois was about awful in the Big 10 last year.  They should be improved in all aspects of the game in 2021.  Even so, they should have another tough season in 2021.  Needing upsets to get to a bowl game in 2021, don’t look for them to get one in Charlottesville on Saturday.  Virginia will narrowly win this in a “must miss” game.

   Editor’s Note:  Double T got off to an incredible start with his inside information that North Carolina “was reading too many press clippings and looking right past a Hokie team on whom they put up a “56” last season.  “Enter Sandman” with the cameras panning to Tar Heels HC Brown who had that “deer caught in the headlights” look the entire game.  Primetime football has always been a big deal in Blacksburg with Orange filling the stands. The emotional victory was never in doubt as they picked off over-hyped QB Howell 3 times.  This week, Tony focuses on a similar situation.  Though UVA, under HC Mendenhall, is 13-7 ATS vs. non-con foes, this is a horrible spot for his Cavs.  A common theme in sports is “you can’t stay hungry if you are fat”.  That will certainly be the case with Virginia this week who cruised to a 43-0 shutout win vs. outmanned W&M and is NOW LOOKING DEAD AHEAD AT THEIR ACC SLATE beginning with North Carolina next week.  Tony sees emotions on the opposite end of the Illini whose rollercoaster season could well continue with Bielema’s boys due for the bounce back after they fell victim to UTSA (“Hunter” winner on these pages), who themselves were in letdown mode after upsetting Nebraska in Week #1A.  THIS IS THE WEEK  to be back on the Illini.   

Dave Parsoni … Bon Vivant and World Traveler  (1-0)

     Selection by Dave Parsoni; commentary by Joe Gavazzi

Washington  (+7)  8:00 PM ET

Congrats to DP for his Week #1 upset winner with Penn State.  This week he turns his attention to yet another quality underdog team. Last week, I reported that Parsoni had yet to return to the US from his visit to Australia.  I assumed, at the time, that it was COVID related.  When I learned it was actually wine related, I assumed he was seeking to unearth a hidden region of the continent for Pinor Noit grapes.  In a shocking turn of events, I have since learned that Parsoni became intrigued with Australian Syrah (Shiraz), to the extent that he has invested millions in a vineyard in Hunter Valley, the oldest Syrah region on the continent.  The promise of annual shipments to this bureau assures his place on these pages.  This week, our BIG 10 insider, who continues to assure us the time of HC Harbaugh is limited, is eager to fade the Wolverines this week.  He was hardly impressed with the 47 point output against the weak defense of Western Michigan.  He also loves the value created in Washington’s home loss to Montana IN WHICH THEY OUTGAINED THE GRIZZLIES 291-232 BUT HAD A -3 NET TO MARGIN.  The Huskies were clearly looking forward to this trip to Ann Arbor, the only challenging game on their slate until mid-October.  Should Michigan be resting on their laurels following last week’s easy win, they will be clearly stunned by this far superior Husky defense. 

NFL GUEST HANDICAPPERS 

Thursday, Sept 9th

The Breakfast Club… North Philly Money Movers   

Tampa Bay (-8)  8:20 PM ET 

Bruno was surprisingly humble when he called this week.  “Tanks for havin’ us back ‘dis year.  I tought you dumped our ass after we stunk up the joint last year.  We been followin’ the Dallas story all summer.  The loss of their best OL guy puts this pick over the top.  We don’t see any unit on the field where the Cowboys are better.” 

    Editor’s Note:  Caveat Emptor.  “You can’t be hungry if you’re fat.”  And Super Bowl Champ T Bay must certainly be that with the entire offense and defense returning.  Backing the selection however, is the fact that, in the last 20 years, Week #1 defending Super Bowl Champs are 15-5 ATS. 

Sunday, Sept 12th

Young Blood Sports… Keepin’ it Fresh 

Arizona Cardinals (+134)   4:00 PM ET

Ladies and gentlemen, do you feel it? That crisp cool air starting to roll across the ridges? The chilly nights, the morning fog, maybe even the classic feel of your favorite sweatshirt?   Some call it a change of seasons.   I call it the beginning of a new era. That’s right, football is back and YBS is here to make things right in the world! As I mentioned before, there will be NFL moneyline plays released each week for the next 18 weekends.  As the weather cools,  these selections are going to be hotter than ever.   I will do my best to make you money every week.  I’ve rolled my NHL skill set, and attitude, into an NFL mindset which will result in consistent winning selections.  With all that being mentioned, good things take time! It’s still early and there’s a lot to be uncovered. Selections will grow wider as the weeks roll on, but for now, I will leave you with just 1 lock for the week. 

Does Tennessee look good at first glance? Absolutely!  Did I boost my Fantasy Football chances by selecting RB Derrick Henry as my first choice?  Who wouldn’t!  But with the absolute firepower of Murray at QB and Hopkins as a comfy and clear WR choice, this one looks like a no brainer. Thanks to all for following. And as always “tail me or fade me, either way I don’t give a shit”   See y’all at the bank!

The Vegas Beard’s … PRO TEASER of the week  

PASS Week one.  I want to determine by the various lines and line moves which teams have their vaccination numbers very high or 100%.  (I heard that was the case with Atlanta two weeks’ ago.).  Anyway, I want to observe if things seem fairly normal or if we have a rash of NFL problems and crazy line moves because of Covid-19.

That said, I want to remind you about some things I have written before about football teasers.  They are basically a sucker bet.  For example, do not bet college teasers.  College games fall way, way off the line much of the time.  You have a better shot with pro teasers because many games are tight, tight (especially if the line is low–single digits).  OK, I am suggesting that you might win at pro teasers BUT do not make very many plays.  I suggest one to three a week.  AND, stick to two-teamers.   AND, do not lay more than 6-5.  AND, if your man says that a WIN and a TIE is a loss don’t play him.  Actually, any TIE should be no action, but rules vary from book-to-book.

  Editor’s Note:  You can avoid all of this by laying -115 on 6 point teasers at Loose Lines as well as get “Nickle Juice” on every major side and total you bet.

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CFB “KEEP ON TRACKIN’” 

Category % since L3Y 2020 2021
 2000    
Double Rushes 75% 689-176 (79.7% ATS) 161-39 (80.5% ATS) 21-11
200 Clubs 74% 376-116 (76.4% ATS) 92-31 (74.8% ATS) 8-3
+3+ Net TO Margin 89% 268-26 (91.2% ATS) 60-3 (95.2%ATS) 5-3
+2 Net TO Margin 76% 169-53 (76.1%ATS) 66-20 (76.7% ATS) 9-4
     

NFL  “Keep on Trackin’” 

Category % since  2000 L4Y 2020 
Play any team who outrushed their opponent by 30+ yards  75% 492-153  (76.3%) 92-33 (73.6%) 
Play any team with 30+ running attempts if opponent does not  87% 479-101   (82.6%) 97-23 (80.8%) 
PLAY AGAINST any team who rushes ball 22 or less times if foe does  87% 467-493   (83.4%) 79-19 (80.6%) 
ATS result of SU winner in games where line is 6 or less  91% 438-65   (87.1%) 105-17 (86.0%) 
Play any team with a Net TO margin of +3 or more in a game 91% 142-11   (92.8%) 22-2 (91.7%) 
Play any team with a Net TO margin of  +2 in a game 77% 299-74   (80%) 39-8 (82.9%) 

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Thumbnail Sketches of 130 CFB Teams

by Joe Gavazzi

I will load a new Conference here each day for 11 days!  Watch for them…
be the smartest one in the room on Game Day!

Football is here and the train is leaving the station… get on or get out of the way!

__________________________

College FB Articles from Joe Gavazzi

SEARCHING FOR VALUE IN THE EARLY WEEKS OF CFB

by Joe Gavazzi, JoeGavazziSports.com

Never in my lengthy career as a College Football Handicapper has there ever been a more challenging Preseason in terms of year-to-year team adjustments and ratings.

Let’s call it the “Covid Conundrum”.  The pandemic produced many challenges for CFB coaches (and handicappers) in the 2020 Season.  Many programs had limited or NO SPRING PRACTICES.  Three teams didn’t even bother to suit up.  No games!  Others would begin the season in early September, while some waited an extra 8 weeks.  Seasons ranged from 3 to 12 games.  “Crazy” is an overused word these days.  But it WAS “crazy”!  To continue reading… https://joegavazzisports.com/searching-for-value/

___________________________________________

CFB QB TRANSFERS 2021

by Joe Gavazzi  JoeGavazziSports.com

If you review my article on “Searching for Early Season Value”, you will recall that between “Super Seniors” and “Transfers”, there are now 94 FBS teams who will have 17 or more returning starters.  An average of 76% returning production is unprecedented.  The scope of this article is to detail the incredible number of 31 transfer signal callers who will likely be at the helm of their teams this season.   The order of this list is by strength of conference.  Each transfer will be given a letter grade with my prediction of how much they will lend to their teams success. 

Georgia (B)…   JT Daniels  (USC)  To continue reading… https://joegavazzisports.com/cfb-qb-transfers-2021/

___________________________________________________

NEW CFB HEAD COACHES FOR 2021 

by Joe Gavazzi    JoeGavazziSports.com

Following a COVID conflicted year, you would think he College Administrators would have a bit of mercy.  Not so, for 17 coaches who took the ax despite battling through the challenges of the Pandemic last year.  The following is a list of 17 replacements and their prognosis for the upcoming season. 

Auburn ~ Brian Harsin To continue reading… https://joegavazzisports.com/new-cfb-head-coaches-2021/

____________________________________

2021 CFB TEAMS TO BOUNCE BACK BIG

By Joe Gavazzi  JoeGavazziSports.com

Every August I present a list of CFB teams who have underperformed in the previous season and are expected to BOUNCE BACK BIG in the current campaign.  In the past, these teams have had an extraordinary history of success both SU and ATS.  They are presented, for your ease of use, in alphabetical order.

Arkansas State to continue reading… https://joegavazzisports.com/2021-cfb-teams-to-bounce-back-big/

_________________________________

TOP 20 CFB DEFENSIVE DANDIES for 2021

By Joe Gavazzi   JoeGavazziSports.com

This list of 20 teams is the combination of defensive squads who had a superior stop unit last year and return the vast majority of their players for the upcoming season.  To qualify, a team must have the same Head Coach as the previous season, allowed 26 or less PPG, and 380 or less YPG.  They must have 75% or more of their tackles returning and 80% or more of the combination of defensive sacks, tackles for loss, and interceptions returning, per Phil Steele’s CFB Preview. To continue reading… https://joegavazzisports.com/top-20-cfb-defensive-dandies-for-2021/

_____________________________________

KEEP ON TRACKIN’

By Joe Gavazzi    JoeGavazziSports.com

This most illuminating chart has been a part of the Pointspread Prognosis this millennium.  A reader favorite, it is set to return for the 2021 CFB and NFL Season.  It is proof positive that the key elements in pointspread outcomes are DOMINANCE AT THE POINT OF ATTACK AND TURNOVERS. To continue reading… https://joegavazzisports.com/keep-on-trackin-3/

2021 HIDDEN GEMS

By Joe Gavazzi  JoeGavazziSports.com

My Annual List of HIDDEN GEMS is a group of teams who had a losing record the previous year, and in most cases at least several years before that.  These teams will be poorly perceived by the betting public.  The key with these teams is to make your move on them before the linemaker catches up.  As you will read, the dominant reasons for their projected improvement comes from a group of factors that may include a new coach, a new coordinator, a transfer QB, or a plethora of Power 5 transfers.  Keep your eye on these teams in the early going before the line catches up. 

Colorado State Rams

Looking at his numbers from his last three seasons at his former affiliation, Boston College, it is obvious that 2nd year HC Addazio wants to run the football.  In 2019, his final season at Chestnut Hill, his Eagles averaged 254/5.1 overland.  Thus it was a major disappointment to the coach when his team could muster just 126/3.3 overland and averaged just 22 PPG in the pandemic plagued season of 2020 when the Rams went 1-3 SU, ATS.  To continue readinghttps://joegavazzisports.com/hidden-gems/

JOE’S CORNER

RUNLINE REPORT OF JULY 1ST 2021

We are just shy of the half way point in the MLB Season with 3 months of play completed.  An average of 8.9 RPG is being plated this season, with possibilities of increased scoring (and more 2 run victories?) with the crack down on “substance abuse” in MLB.  Here are the key records for runline followers, based on my unique and proprietary runline numbers. 

  • 343-252 (57.8%)  Home record of National League teams
  • 322-280 (53.5)  Home record of American League teams
  • 240/343 (70%)  NL home team victories by 2 or more runs
  • 226/322 (70.2%) AL home team victories by 2 or more runs
  • 179/240 (72%) NL road victories by 2 or more runs
  • 220/283 (77.7%) AL road victories by 2 or more runs
  • 865/1197 (72.3%)  All MLB victories by 2 or more runs

As they apply, on days in which I do game-by-game analyses, you will see the individual team runline numbers of note.  In this regard, see the introduction in which I point out the Houston vs. Cleveland dichotomous numbers.

_____________________________________________

SECRET SAUCE CONTINUES TO SIZZLE!!!

In the last 32 days, MLB selections have recorded a profit of $17,999 ($562/day).  The selections have been even hotter the last 10 days with $11,527 PROFIT ($1152/day).  Many of you have made MUCH MORE by using the “MULTIPLIER EFFECT” of my “Money Management System”.  WHAT CAUSES SUCH A PHENOMENA?  It’s the SECRET SAUCE RECIPE of my MLB OPS THEORY.  You can read about this at JoeGavazziSports.com. Click BASEBALL, scroll to “This is how we do it”.  The short version is that the HOME/AWAY numbers are 34-7!!

With bulging bankrolls, it is now time for you to take advantage of my 2021 FOOTBALL OFFER for up to 75% OFF!  Many of you have taken advantage (thank you!).  For those who HAVE NOT… PLEASE CALL TODAY, AS THIS OFFER IS ABOUT TO EXPIRE!  724-715-7186

__________________________

PARTY ON

+$19,266 Last 30 days

+$12,788 Last 9 days   

Funny story.  A former client called me 3 weeks ago and asked how I was doing in Baseball.  I gave him the record for the last week, he said “That’s too good, I’m not signing up, you’ll get cold”.  He called 2 weeks ago and we repeated the same conversation.  Last week, instant replay!  When he called this morning for the record, I repeated the numbers above, he said “ no way, your lying” and hung up. 

Though that conversation with a former client may be somewhat extreme, it is a microcosm of the majority of the world’s sports bettors.  Pull back the reins because you fear things are too good, but pump it up in the face of a losing streak.  Again, in a nutshell, that’s why 98% of sports bettors are losers and this bureau has more net wins than any other Sports Service since 1979.  I am not afraid to push a winning streak to “protect a record”.

CURRENT REALITIES

There are anomalies in the standings with (6) teams playing over .600 ball, and (5) teams playing under .400 ball.  History says that teams will gravitate to the .400 to .600 level.  And that losing streaks of 6 or more games, for KC, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and AZ, will turn around. 

Next Monday, there will be fines and suspensions for “altering the baseball with a foreign substance”.  This should improve offense, which hit a record low of .237 BA recently, leading to higher scoring and more exciting games.  Will that aid the run line differential which currently stands 73% by 2 or more runs?  My experience with the OPS numbers shows that they will adjust accordingly and should, hopefully, produce the same results as the recent past.  The “Secret Sauce” numbers (go to JoeGavazziSports.com, click on Baseball and scroll to “This is How We Do It”) are now 90-40 since May 1st for home/away meaningful differentials and 32-5 (yes, 32-5) using YTD OPS differentials.  We will continue to “Party On” until the party comes to a conclusion.  You are playing with house money, continue the stay using our “Money Management Theory”  to ride the wave of the winning streak.  This is the way we multiply our profits by increasing our risk as our bankroll expands.

If you are a client who has not yet signed up for Joe Gavazzi’s CFB & NFL Pointspread Prognosis Newsletter, my 6% CFB & CBKB Club, and the 75% discounts on Football and Basketball, please scroll to the end of these selections and contact us immediately to join the majority of you who have already taken advantage of this offer. 

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Since the inception of my 6% plays 9 years ago, they have won nearly 70% of the time.  That is EASILY THE BEST BIG GAME RECORD of any service in the country in that time frame.  Last year’s CFB record was 10-2 ATS (83%). 

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PS.  Several of you have inquired about a package price for the 25 (or more) 6% CFB & CBKB plays.  The combined record of these plays was 20-7 ATS last season.  We have guys who play 6 dimes a rattle on these who made more than a 100 dimes.  This should be you! 

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MLB OPS Theory Confirmed

The new OPS numbers have been set for the series from Friday, May 21st to Sunday, May 23rd.  TEAMS ARE AT LAST GRAVITATING (in terms of W/L rank) TO THEIR OPS RANK.

There are only 5 PLAY ON OPS teams who have an OPS rank of 5 positions or better than their W/L rank.  Those teams (with their OPS advantage) are as follows:  Washington (+9). Cincinnati (+8), LA Dodgers (+7), Minnesota (+7), NYY (+5).

The PLAY AGAINST OPS TEAMS (with their numerical difference in parenthesis) are as follows:  Oakland (-12), Seattle (-10), Philadelphia (-6), Kansas City (-5).

There are two matchups in which the OPS differential, confirmed by the H/A OPS differential, are greater than 100 points.  Those are, with their respected differences in parenthesis, Houston (+146 & 133) vs. Texas, and San Diego (+139 & +139) vs. Seattle. 

_______________________________________________________________________

2021 Run Line Report
thru May 16th

There was a bit of a dip in scoring in the 1st two weeks of May.  It translated to a slight drop in games decided by 2 or more runs.  Though home team figures remained constant at 67.7% of games decided by 2 or more runs, the road numbers took a minor hit dropping from 77.6% to 76.4%.  For the YTD, the record of games decided by 2 or more runs is:

430-169 (71.8%)

To refresh your memory, I break down the record of wins and losses for each team, home and away, at a margin of victory or defeat by 2 or more runs.  When a team’s situation is 80% or higher, they are a candidate for a run line play.  This is used in conjunction with the OPS BUY RATINGS and SELL RATINGS based not only on a team’s YTD performance (vis a vis their W/L rank), but also their home/road OPS numbers as compared to this year’s W/L rank.  Critical pitching information then completes the picture relying on a starter’s OPS, WHIP, and the inherited runners scored % by a team’s bullpen. 

Taking a look at the early week’s matchups, the following are some run line numbers to consider. 

Arizona at LA Dodgers

            17/18 losses, including 8/9 away, by 2+ runs for Arizona

            18/22 wins, 10/12 home for the LA Dodgers

Colorado at San Diego

            12/14 road losses by 2+ runs for Colorado

            Huge IS % dichotomy favors the Padres

CWS at Minnesota

            20/24 wins, including 12/13 MRT, and 9/10 away for CWS

            9/12 losses by 2+ for Minnesota

            Huge IS % edge for CWS

NY Yankees at Texas

            17/22 wins by 2+ for NYY

            8/10 home losses by Texas

Cleveland at LAA

            18/21 wins, including 10/11 away for Cleveland

            19/22 Ls, including 9/9 home for the Angels

            Major IS % edge for Cleveland

Detroit at Seattle

            13/14 road losses by 2+ runs for Detroit

Series beginning Tuesday

Pittsburgh at St. Louis

            20/23 losses by 2+ runs for Pittsburgh

            19/23 wins by 2+ for St. Louis

Tampa Bay at Baltimore

            10/12 road wins for Tampa Bay

            18/23 losses by 2+ for Baltimore

Boston at Toronto

            12/15 losses, including 5/5 home, for Toronto

Houston at Oakland

            20/24 wins, including 8/9 by 2+ for Houston

            9/11 home losses by 2+ runs for Oakland

Milwaukee at Kansas City

            9/11 road wins by 2+ for Milwaukee

            11/12 home losses by 2+ for Kansas City

OPS PLAY ON teams for this series

Cincinnati, Washington, LA Dodgers, Minnesota, Detroit

OPS Home/Road PLAY ON teams for this series

San Francisco, Atlanta, Washington, LA Angels

OPS PLAY AGAINST teams for this series 

Philadelphia, Arizona, Toronto, Cleveland, Oakland, Seattle, Kansas City

OPS Home/Road PLAY AGAINST teams for this series

Miami, Chicago Cubs, Tampa Bay, Texas, Oakland, Seattle

Note:  In the just completed series of Sunday, the PLAY ON teams were a combined 19-9 while FADING the PLAY AGAINST teams would have yielded a negative record of 9-17.  Faux or Fo’ Real?

_________________________________________________________________________

+$2842 MLB Profit

Coinciding with the advent of runline selections we have seen profit of +$2846 in the last 8 days of MLB selections.  With parity continuing across the board — only 3 teams greater than .600 and 3 teams worse than .400 — expect the prices to stay reasonable providing us with our runline selections that turn big favorites into underdogs.  The chart I am presenting below will give us additional ammunition in determining which teams – based on their PLAY ON or PLAY AGAINST OPS rating — will be best suited for run line selections.  Before presenting this chart however, please allow me to introduce it with this information on home teams.

At the beginning of the MLB Season, home teams were winning barely more than 50% of the games.  Increasing numbers of fans in the stands – which will be even truer now that CDC has issued its guidelines of “no masks for the vaxed” has increased the home teams winning percentage.  Entering Thursday action, home teams were 283-257 (52.4%).  More intriguing news in that regard is the AL vs. NL dichotomy; the split shows us that NL home teams are 151-115 (56.7%), while their AL home counterparts are just 132-142 (47.8%).  This is a nice segue into my presentation of OPS home/road dichotomies. 

The chart below shows the OPS home/road differential for each of the 30 teams from best to worst.   Please note however, that it does not take into account Strength of Schedule or Historical Home Field Advantage such as the altitude of Coors Field in Denver.  Just a reminder here:  a team’s OPS number is the sum of its OPS batting and its inverted OPS pitching number.  See “This is How We Do It” at JoeGavazziSports.com for my OPS Theory.  FYI:  the home OPS average is 1034.8 compared to 971.1 for road teams.  All data presented is for games thru Wednesday, May 12th.

Rank

Team

H/A Diff

HM Rank

HM OPS

AW Rank

AW OPS

1

Colorado

+263

18

1015

30

752

2

Detroit

+188

23

972

29

784

3

Chicago Cubs

+177

16

1032

28

855

4

Atlanta

+175

13

1044

27

869

5

NY Mets

+165

1-2

1157

15

992

6

Toronto

+161

8

1096

22

935

7

Philadelphia

+146

15

1039

26

893

8

Cincinnati

+145

6

1106

19

961

9

Arizona

+131

11

1053

24

922

10

Miami

+128

10

1058

23

930

11

CWS

+104

4

1167

4

1062

12

LAA

+101

14

1040

20

939

13

Boston

+100

3

1168

2

1068

14

San Francisco

+96

5

1135

8

1039

15

LAD

+94

1-2

1175

1

1081

16

Houston

+46

7

1100

6

1054

17

Kansas City

+37

24-25

964

25

917

18

Washington

+35

19

1000

17

965

19

NY Yankees

+17

9

1078

5

1061

20

St. Louis

+4

12

1051

7

1047

21

Oakland

-5

20

990

13-14

995

22

Seattle

-20

29

917

21

937

23

Minnesota

-31

24-25

964

13-14

995

24

Texas

-36

27

954

16

980

25

Tampa Bay

-41

26

959

12

1000

26

Pittsburgh

-44

28

920

18

964

27-28

San Diego

-45

17

1019

3

1064

27-28

Cleveland

-45

21-22

979

10

1024

29

Milwaukee

-51

21-22

979

9

1030

30

Baltimore

-103

30

914

11

1017

Though this chart is most informative for presenting home/road dichotomies, it also has value in allowing me to isolate (much in the same way as the combined OPS rank) which teams are outperforming or underperforming their W/L percentage rank.  Here are a couple of examples to prove my point: 

Atlanta has an 8-9 road record, 15th best in MLB, but their road OPS number of 869 is good for just the 27th road ranking among all MLB teams.  This indicates a sell sign for Atlanta when playing on the road as the W/L record gravitates toward the OPS performance. 

At the other end of the spectrum is a Boston Red Sox team who is 10-11 at home, good for the 18th best home record.  But their 1066 OPS home mark is 3rd best in the league indicating a difference of 15 positions which makes the Red Sox a PLAY ON team in their home games.

__________________________________________________________________________

Young Blood Sports preps for NHL Playoffs 

HUGE PROFITS AWAIT

Editor’s Note:  Young Blood Sports had an incredible mid-season NHL run before cooling just a bit down the stretch.  Following his 0-2 night of last, I received this message from YBS this AM. 

Where do I begin?  Both of my selections last night could not have been worse.  Things are getting difficult with Playoff implications no longer influencing game outcomes. 

Am I scared?  Absolutely not! 

Excited?  YES!  I’m not sure how many of you are familiar with Playoff  Hockey in the NHL.  In my opinion it is one of the most volatile situations in sports.  Teams get hot, and teams get soft.  BUT THERE IS A SINGULAR METHOD THAT I HAVE STUCK WITH FOR YEARS IN THIS REGARD.  MOMENTUM CARRIES OVER. 

There will be a limited amount of releases early in these Playoff series.  I find it is important to relax, take notes, and enjoy the show.  Once I have a better understanding of who is who and what is what, I WILL HAVE THE UTMOST CONFIDENCE MOVING FORWARD.  In the meantime, there will be some “Best of 7 Series” prices coming your way. 

Thank you for your trust, loyalty and patience.

None of us will be hoisting the Stanley Cup this year, but there is no reason we can’t pad our bankroll. 

Young Blood Sports NHL Playoffs are available at the following price structure:

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*******************************

MLB OPS WEEKEND NUMBERS

From Joe Gavazzi

These are the (6) PLAY ON OPS teams for this weekend.

Cincinnati, Miami, Minnesota, NY Mets, NY Yankees, Houston

There are your (4) PLAY AGAINST OPS teams for this weekend. 

San Francisco, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Cleveland

Here are the meaningful runline records for the weekend. 

Miami… 12/14 wins by 2+

St. Louis… 14/16 wins by 2+

CWS… 13/16 wins by 2+

Houston… 15/16 wins by 2+

NYY… 15/16 wins (9/9 home) by 2+

Pittsburgh… 16/17 Ls by 2+

Colorado… 15/18 Ls by 2+

Kansas City… 12/15 Ls by 2+  (8/9 home)

Toronto… 10/13 Ls by 2+

Washington… 12/15 Ls by 2+

______________________________________

MLB Monday, May 3rd 

PARITY?… SO SOON 

As I have written before, it has proven to be historically true, that 24 or more of the 30 teams in MLB have a W/L percentage of .400 to .600 at the conclusion of the season.  If you read the article “This is How We Do It”, you will see that the concept of parity is one of the main reasons why my OPS Theory works so well.  This year, after 4 weeks of play, and every team playing less than 30 games (under 20% of the schedule), an amazing 24 out of the 30 teams are playing from .407 to .586 baseball.  Only KC (.615), Milwaukee (.607), and SFG (.607), are above .600.  Note that none of those were projected to be there at the beginning of the season.  That factor alone indicates these teams will return to earth over time.  At the other end of the spectrum is but 3 teams playing less than .400. They are Detroit (.276) and Colorado (.357), along with Minnesota (.358), a team projected to play OVER .500 MLB.  That Minnesota record provides the perfect segue to our next topic.  For it is the Minnesota bullpen, with just a 44% save rate, and a league worst inherited runner scored % that is the worst in MLB.

RATING THE BULLPENS 

IS %… Inherited Runners Scored %.  The league average is 34%.  Here are the 4 worst teams in this category…  62% Minnesota, 51% Philadelphia, 50% LA Angels, 45% Cincinnati.   Here are the 4 best IS % teams… 15% NYY, 19% San Diego, 21% Kansas City, 21% Texas. 

SAVE PERCENTAGE

Simply put, the percentage of games saved by the bullpen under the parameters described by MLB.  The league average is 62%.  Here are the 6 teams who saved less than 50% of their given opportunities… 33% Miami, 36% Arizona, 38% Colorado, 42% Cincinnati, 42% CWS, 44% Minnesota.  Here are the 6 best Save Percentage teams… 100% NYY, 100% Oakland, 88% Toronto, 80% St. Louis, 80% Cleveland, 80% Pittsburgh.

Putting the data together, one could make a case for the fact that, based on these parameters, Minnesota and Cincinnati have the league’s worst bullpens while NYY and Toronto have MLB’s best bullpens.

                ___________________________________________________

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______________________________________________

MLB Thursday, April 29th 

CAUGHT IN THE ZIG ZAG… SAY IT ISN’T SO

Yes, it is so… the epitome of horrendous game selection management.  In this very space yesterday, I isolated the fact that the 1st two weeks of MLB had negative results because I was focusing on the “Up arrow teams” (see Tuesday’s report) who fell into the role of underachieving OPS teams, in the role of favorite, who were looking to return to the norm.  When I returned to the research lab, as noted yesterday, it was the “UP ARROW UNDERDOGS” that had gone 21-16, +$4555 at $300 risk/play.  Yesterday was the complete reversal of that.  I switched to using the underdogs (Cincinnati and Colorado) and left out the teams I had been using, with mostly poor results, all week (Minnesota, NYY, Tampa Bay, Miami and Houston, who went 5-0!).  Meanwhile, the NBA was again “saving our bacon” with a 3-1 ATS night running the recent record to 33-19 ATS.

LOOKING AHEAD…

For the remainder of this week, I will mostly stay with the concept of these underdogs which have proven profitable.  Next week, as each team will have played 25-30 games, I will begin to use my UNIQUE and PROPRIETARY RUN LINE METHOD (see “This is How We Do It”) to turn big favorites into underdog winners. 

___________________________________________

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Hope you got in on the Early Season NBA & NHL discount prices.

NBA 25-14 ATS (64%)

NHL 24-12 (67%) $7159

 

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IT MATTERS WHAT YOU WIN 
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______________________________________________________

NBA on an 25-14 (64%) Run 

NHL 23-10  (70%)  +$7,693

All Games Locked and Loaded for Sunday Action

_______________________________________________________________________

I WOULD BET INTERNATIONAL PING PONG…

If I knew someone who made money betting international ping pong, I would follow him to the bank. 

And I know you would too because in Sports Betting, as in life, it is often not WHAT you know, but WHO you know. 

Such is the case with the NHL Handicapping prodigy, Young Blood Sports. 

You can read all about Young Blood Sports and how I met this guy by going to JoeGavazziSports.com   After two years of tailing him, I finally talked him into selling his picks at JoeGavazziSports.com   The record has not disappointed.

18-9 +$5575

Introductory prices are ridiculously low.  But they won’t last for long if the selections keep performing at the pace they have for the last two seasons.

  • $189 for 21 days (Only $9/day)

  • $450 thru NHL Playoffs (Only $5/day)

Buy now to tail these winners before the prices go up.

Go to JoeGavazziSports.com/SHOP

or email us at wsa@winningsportsadvice@gmail.com

Or CALL directly at 724-715-7186

____________________________________________________

  • $595 (less than $7/day) thru NBA Playoffs

  • $189 (less than $9/day) 21 consecutive days

  • 10% Pay After You Win

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______________________________________________________

NICKLE JUICE A MUST

What you save is what you earn!  I have saved a lot of “juice” this Football and Basketball Season by playing at Loose Lines.  You can do the same.  Get Nickle juice now!

CALL Customer Service at 888-446-8151  or  Click on LOOSE LINES

Use Code Joe 150 to get your FREE SIGN UP BONUS

_________________________________________________________

It’s who you know…

There’s an old sports betting adage that says “It’s not what you know, it’s who you know”.  That’s exactly the case of a contact I stumbled upon a couple of years ago.  You can read all about that by clicking Young Blood Sports at JoeGavazziSports.com

I know next to nothing about the NHL.  Couldn’t name a coach, heard of maybe 5 to 10 players, and not sure what surface ICE HOCKEY is played on. The only way I could conceivably get involved would be if they widened the net, put in a 2 point arc, and played 4 on 4.  But that ain’t gonna happen.  Like you, if it wins, I wanna bet it.  After 2 years, I finally convinced my contact to sell his “Red Hot, Ice Selections” on JoeGavazziSports.com.  After 5 days, the results have been nothing short of amazing.

10-3 +$4713

His proprietary rating system is 60% PPQ, 70% PPQ, 80%  PPQ, and the rare 90% PPQ.  PPQ stands for PERCENT PROBABILITY QUOTIENT relating to his confidence level the selection will win.  The profit figure above is based on those who risked $100 for every 10% PPQ.  That is to say $600 on the 60% PPQ, etc.  You can adjust your own profit level based on how much you wager.  Personally, I equate a 60% PPQ with a 3% play, and so forth.

This guy lives and breathes NHL, watching almost every game nightly.  Besides his Executive Service, you can add an additional price for his “In Game Picks”.  You won’t get these every night, but when you do you will receive them BY TEXT.  Naturally, there is a bit higher price for these selections, which have been even hotter than his Executive Plays.

I have profited from these selections in recent seasons and advise you do the same.  There are Daily Rates as well as Money Saving Rates for 21 days or for the season (as low as $5/day).

If making money is your objective, check out Young Blood Sports at JoeGavazziSports.com  and sign up for the package that is best for you.  There are two more winners for Monday night available after 2:00 PM ET.

_____________________________________________

Just a couple of quick notes before we begin with selections, which will be out by 1:00 PM ET each day, OR no later than 1 hour before the start of the first game.

  • All selections will be released as “ACTION” plays. This means you do not need to specify starting pitchers in your wager and that we will accept any pitching change and attendant line adjustment.  I strongly recommend using the tenets of my “Money Management System”.  This is available at com.
  • I also recommend that you play each selection RISKING THE AMOUNT OF THE % OF BANKROLL. For your ease of computation, use the following chart below as a guideline for your wagering.
  • Finally, you may click the link to once again read “This is How We Do It” in regards to the methodology of handicapping MLB. Although the teams have played only an average of 9 games (1 set of the normal 3 games I like to have before the minimum of 12 games), we will forge ahead with the data we have for the Monday thru Wednesday selections.
  • Remember, it is usual that the same teams will appear on multiple days of the current team matchup.
Risk Line $300 $400 $500
  To Win To Win To Win
105 285.7 381.0 476.2
110 272.7 363.6 454.5
115 260.9 347.8 434.8
120 250.0 333.3 416.7
125 240.0 320.0 400.0
130 230.8 307.7 384.6
135 222.2 296.3 370.4
140 214.3 285.7 357.1
145 206.9 275.9 344.8
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       

____________________________________________

NICKLE JUICE A MUST

It is bad enough in today’s betting world when you are risking -110 to win 100 in the world of Football and Basketball. But when your “local man” or even International Sports Book is asking you to  “play a 20 cent line”, well, that is simply highway robbery.

What you save is what you earn!  I have saved a lot of “juice” this Football and Basketball Season by playing at Loose Lines.  You can do the same.  Get Nickle juice now by playing the best Baseball odds in the world!

CALL Customer Service at 888-446-8151  or  Click on LOOSE LINES

Use Code Joe 150 to get your FREE SIGN UP BONUS

________________________________________________________

S.O.S. AND EARLY SEASON SUCCESS IN MLB 

History tells us that at the end of any MLB Season, over the course of 162 game schedule, 24 to 26 teams will gravitate to playing .400 to .600 baseball.  Call it parity, the random bounce of the ball, or anything you’d like.  It is an historical fact.  This is more true in MLB than in any other sport.

As a result, early season win/loss percentages can often appear skewed based on a team’s projected number of victories for the season.  The reason for this can often be attributed to a team’s S.O.S. (strength of schedule).  Consider that, after two weeks of the season, the following facts are true.

  • 73-102  The combined record of the 14 MLB teams who played the most difficult schedule.
  • 112-83  The combined record of the teams who played the 16 easiest schedules.

Admittedly, those are back-fitted numbers which are difficult to project before the season begins.  The real question is how can we use them to our benefit going forward?  For that we turn to looking at our OPS selections.  In theory, these plays should be strengthened if our PLAY ON team has faced a comparatively more difficult schedule while their opponent has faced a relatively weak schedule.  Here is an example from this weekends matchups.  Consider the case of San Francisco visiting Miami this weekend.

At 8-4, the Giants have the 3rd best record in the league.  Consider that may well be due in part to the #23 ranked schedule.  Also consider that their #8 rank OPS is 5 positions below that #3 W/L rank indicating a PLAY AGAINST team.  In the other dugout is a Miami team whose 5-7 record is good for just the #21-23 W/L rank.  That however, has been compiled against the 5th hardest SOS.  With the Marlins holding the #11 OPS rank (10 positions better than their W/L rank), it all fits nicely into the puzzle of solving the outcome of this week’s series matchup against the visiting Giants.  Other series where similar matchup advantages exist are with Atlanta vs. the Cubs, Washington vs. Arizona, NYY vs. Tampa Bay, Toronto vs. KC.  We will know in 72 hours how well this theory prevailed.

________________________________________________________________

 

If you went to joegavazzisports.com Wednesday night  

and invested $44.85 for Daily Service you made a profit of  

+$3276  American Dollars
 

THAT’S 73 TIMES YOUR INVESTMENT!  

It’s enough to begin planning your vacation!  

 
Here is the breakdown for Hundred Dollar Players w/Nickle Juice 
          Joe Gavazzi’s MLB
3%  Wash               (+110)     6-0   WIN     +$330
3%  Miami              (+215)     6-5   WIN     +$645
3%  Minn (Gm 1)    (-140)     2-3   lose     -$300
3%  CWS                 (-110)     8-0   WIN     +$273
4%  Minn (Gm 2)    (-140)    1-7    lose     -$400
                Joe Gavazzi’s NBA  
  4%  Denver           (-5)     123-106    WIN   +$400
3%  Memphis        (+3)    113-114    WIN   +$300
3%  San Antonio   (-5)     112-117     lose    -$315
            Young Blood Sports NHL  
  80%  PPQ  Colorado               (-25)          4-3     WIN    +$600
70%  PPQ  Minnesota        (-1 ½ +141)    5-2     WIN    +$987
60%  PPQ  Vegas               (-1 ½ +126)     6-2     WIN  + $756

  THAT’S   8-3   +$3,276  

 

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__________________________________________________

 

YBS Executive Service Plays

Specializing in NHL and more…
Using the proprietary PPQ Rating System
 JoeGavazziSports.com/SHOP

 

YBS Text Club

Join the

Young Blood Sports Text Club

and increase your profit.

For those of you who love action,
Young Blood Sports offers “In Game selections”. 
These plays do not happen each night,
but when they pop you get an instant text alert!
 Join as part of the “Young Blood Sports Executive Service Plus”. 
Get more action!  Get more winners!
JoeGavazziSports.com/SHOP

 

Introducing Young Blood Sports 

It was December of 2019, before the whole 2020 pandemic thing began.  I was sitting in a local sports bar, enjoying the fact I could watch multiple Bowl games on big screens.  Fans were cheering wildly, mostly because they had a financial interest at stake.

That’s why what happened next was so unusual.  Out of the corner of my eye I noticed a young guy, intently attuned to his phone.  Nothing unusual there!  He was at the far end of the bar, occasionally looking at the screen in front of him.  What was unusual was that he was focused on hockey, in the midst of Bowl Season.  And the reason he was so interested in his phone is that he was watching another hockey game.

Intrigued, I approached him and introduced myself.  He said he knew who I was, and respected my work.  But his love was hockey!  As it turned out, he is a damn good hockey handicapper.  I can attest to that after following more winners than losers from him for the last couple years.  What I also love is his tag line, “Tail me, or fade me. I don’t personally give a shit”.  When I asked him why he was so passionate about sports handicapping he said, “I guess it’s just in my blood.”  Thus was born “Young Blood Sports.”  Along with the hockey, there are other selections, such as UFC, Golf, Horses, and more.  These winners are the perfect complement to the more traditional sports.

Introducing the PPQ – Percent Probability Quotient Rating System.

As you have correctly assumed from the above, Young Blood is supremely confident in his selections.  That confidence is translated by his PPQ Rating System.  The ratings range from 60% to the rare 90% play, and represent his level of confidence that the selections will cash.  If winning is your goal, Young Blood Sports is for you.

Currently, the selections are available exclusively on this site.  Go to  JoeGavazziSports.com/SHOP

.  You can “Tail ‘em or fade ‘em.  He personally doesn’t give a shit!”

__________________________________________________

Welcome to the 2021 MLB Season

Games for Monday, April 12th

NBA is now up for Monday as well.

Just a couple of quick notes before we begin with selections, which will be out by 1:00 PM ET each day, OR no later than 1 hour before the start of the first game.

  • All selections will be released as “ACTION” plays. This means you do not need to specify starting pitchers in your wager and that we will accept any pitching change and attendant line adjustment.  I strongly recommend using the tenets of my “Money Management System”.  This is available at com.
  • I also recommend that you play each selection RISKING THE AMOUNT OF THE % OF BANKROLL. For your ease of computation, use the following chart below as a guideline for your wagering.
  • Finally, you may click the link to once again read “This is How We Do It” in regards to the methodology of handicapping MLB. Although the teams have played only an average of 9 games (1 set of the normal 3 games I like to have before the minimum of 12 games), we will forge ahead with the data we have for the Monday thru Wednesday selections.
  • Remember, it is usual that the same teams will appear on multiple days of the current team matchup.
Risk Line $300 $400 $500
  To Win To Win To Win
105 285.7 381.0 476.2
110 272.7 363.6 454.5
115 260.9 347.8 434.8
120 250.0 333.3 416.7
125 240.0 320.0 400.0
130 230.8 307.7 384.6
135 222.2 296.3 370.4
140 214.3 285.7 357.1
145 206.9 275.9 344.8
150 200.0 266.7 333.3
155 193.5 258.1 322.6
160 187.5 250.0 312.5
165 181.8 242.4 303.0
170 176.5 235.3 294.01
175 171.4 228.6 285.7
180 166.7 222.2 277.8
185 162.2 216.2 270.3
190 157.9 210.5 263.2
195 153.8 205.1 256.4
200 150.0 200.0 250.0

_____________________________________________________

NICKLE JUICE A MUST

It is bad enough in today’s betting world when you are risking -110 to win 100 in the world of Football and Basketball. But when your “local man” or even International Sports Book is asking you to  “play a 20 cent line”, well, that is simply highway robbery.

What you save is what you earn!  I have saved a lot of “juice” this Football and Basketball Season by playing at Loose Lines.  You can do the same.  Get Nickle juice now by playing the best Baseball odds in the world!

CALL Customer Service at 888-446-8151  or  Click on LOOSE LINES

Use Code Joe 150 to get your FREE SIGN UP BONUS

_________________________________________________________

 
What a roll.  NBA on a 12-4 run
If you signed up for MLB last week (selections begin Monday), you got this week’s NBA for FREE.
In the last 5 days, these NBA selections are 12-4 ATS (75 %!).  $100 / % of bankroll players made $2540 PROFIT!
That is enough to have paid for your Annual Subscription ($2495) and still buy lunch!
I will extend this offer until 7:00 PM ET on MONDAY EVENING.
Call or respond to this email for your ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION including today’s NBA winners. 
Also, if you signed up for any Spring Sports, I will apply that money toward your Annual Subscription.

NBA 12-4 ATS (75%) L5Days    

$100 / % of bankroll players made $2540 PROFIT

Get your ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION for just $2495 

I have extended this offer until 7:00 PM ET on MONDAY

CALL NOW at 724-715-7186    
Email us at wsa@joegavazzisports.com    
___________________________________________

“DON’T LET THE BACK DOOR HIT YOU IN THE BUTT”

We entered Friday’s NBA action on a 9-1 run the last 3 days.  By mid-game, it appeared we were on our way to another 4-0 ATS sweep.  Chicago led by 13 at the half, Memphis led by 13 in the mid 4th, and Denver was up by 11 with 3 minutes left.  New Orleans, a 6 point home dog, was in the lead.  Then it happened.  Chicago, Memphis and Denver all allowed the back door to swing wide open resulting in a 1-3 ATS day.  The lesson to be learned once again, “don’t count your NBA chickens before their hatched”.  Now we are 10-4 ATS L4D.

NBA for Saturday is locked and loaded!

____________________________________________

NBA ABLAZE 9-1 ATS run 4-0 ATS Thursday  Bulls, Mavs, Clips, Jazz romp by 53!

Games for Friday  UP NOW

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FREE (a $750 value) MLB & NBA thru NBA Playoffs
 

NBA on a 90% ROLL  ~  9-1 ATS last 3 nights!

Thursday 4-0 ATS… Bulls, Mavs, Clips, Jazz romp by 53!

 

BUT IF YOU BUNDLE THEM… SAVE EVEN MORE

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or respond to this email
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GAMES ARE UP FOR FRIDAY

___________________________

NBA on 5-1 (70%) Current Run!
NBA for Thursday, April 8th UP NOW

Lowest prices ever for Spring Sports!

NBA & MLB prices as low as $5/day

Don’t leave this money on the table!

Read “MLB… This is How We Do It” OR NBA… This is How We Do It” (Below)
Then click the link for the package that is best for you.
SAVE $$$… BY COMBINING BOTH

____________________________________________ 

NICKLE JUICE A MUST 

What you save is what you earn!  I have saved a lot of “juice” this Football and Basketball Season by playing at Loose Lines.  You can do the same.  Get Nickle juice now!

CALL Customer Service at 888-446-8151  or  Click on LOOSE LINES

Use Code Joe 150 to get your FREE SIGN UP BONUS

________________________________________________________ 

NBA… THIS IS HOW WE DO IT!

Even without the effects of a pandemic, the NBA is a long and grueling grind.  It normally exceeds 100 games for teams in the NBA Finals.  As a result, what happens in the first couple months of the season is often not indicative of the current form of the team.  Injuries, trades and chemistry can change tremendously through the course of the season.  THAT IS WHY THE BEST WAY TO HANDICAP THE NBA IS WITH A RECENCY MODEL.   I use two Recency Models.  One is based on the highly successful RAT Model I built for CBKB handicapping.  The other is a computer based model which isolates current form.  Together, these will isolate our daily plays which will perform as well as any you can find.

Once the NBA Playoffs begin, it’s a whole new ballgame.  The Recency Models are again indicative, but with teams playing the same opponent for as long as a 7 game set, it is important to understand the value of the Zig/Zag Model.  Simply stated, it means playing ON the team who lost the previous game of the series.  Though this simple idea normally provides nominal profit, there are key parameters and tighteners which push this level of success to over 60%.

Here’s hoping you join me for the success we will have during Springtime in the NBA.  Go to joegavazzisports.com/SHOP to sign up and join us. 

MLB…THIS IS HOW WE DO IT!

With the advent of the 2002 movie “Money Ball”, sabermetric handicapping has become a major part of a handicapper’s analysis when betting the bases.  Since that time, I used just about every metric available in search of a methodology which would provide consistent winners.  In the final analysis, I emerged with my “OPS Theory of MLB Handicapping”.

This OPS Theory, simplified, is the sum of a team’s OPS batting, plus the inverse to 1.000, of a team’s pitching.  After ranking these numbers for each team from 1-30, I then compare it to the W/L rank of each MLB team.  When there is a difference of 5 or more positions, we have a play. That is to say, a PLAY ON a team if their OPS rank is 5 points superior to their W/L rank, and PLAY AGAINST a team if their OPS rank is 5 points inferior to their W/L rank.  As a subjective opinion, I compare the bullpen OPS rank of each team.

In OPS, a walk counts one for on-base and zero for slugging, while any hit counts one for on base and the number of bases for slugging.  So counting both OBA and SLG, a single counts 2 and a homer 5.  These are in about the same proportion as in linear weights.  That is why OPS works so well.

I perform the operation of OPS rankings every Monday and Thursday morning prior to the start of each new series.  That is why you often see the same teams on the selection sheet in consecutive days.  When plays are mutually exclusive, I immediately exclude them from consideration.  In addition, I break down the plays into 4 distinct classifications.

ON home teams

ON away teams

AGAINST home teams

AGAINST away teams

What about pitching?  Of course it is important!  But starting pitching is accurately reflected in the line, my OPS Model includes pitching, and the Bullpen OPS is now worth 33% of the pitching handicap.

As a further consideration, I EXCLUDE money line plays where the line is more than 1.50.  Games where the line is more than 1.50 are included as run line selections only when my run line chart, which I update daily, shows that a PLAY ON or PLAY AGAINST team qualifies in an over 80% situation.

RUN LINE WINNERS 

Dating to 2010, I have tracked the result of every MLB game, home and away, by margin of victory of 2 runs or more.  With 9 years of data in the rear view mirror, there is one salient conclusion that can be made:

MLB TEAMS WIN THE GAME BY 2 OR MORE RUNS 74% OF THE TIME

Because the home team does not bat in the bottom of the 9th if leading, and the road team is always looking to secure as large a lead after batting in their half of the 9th inning, the 9 year average shows road teams to win a game by 2 or more runs 74% of the time while home teams win a game by 2 or more runs, 68% of the time.

In 2019, however, these Run line results increased to 71% for home and 77% for away teams, or a combined result of 74% that the winning score is 2 or more runs.

The question often asked is to how I use this run line data.  I first handicap the contest with a basis of the handicapping being my OPS rankings.  I then check the betting line and my MLB 80% team trends to see if I can turn a favored team into an underdog price.  When that happens, I feel comfortable making it a run line play.

The explanation of this model may seem a bit intricate as described above.  I assure you however, that the OPS indicator is the best metric I have found for isolating MLB winners.  Combined with my unique and proprietary run line methods, this analysis provides a healthy profit in an MLB Season.  You can do these many hours of work yourself each day of the week, or you can follow my conclusions for as little as $5/day by signing up at joegavazzisports.com/SHOP

Joe Gavazzi

CALL NOW at 724-715-7186

Email us at wsa@joegavazzisports.com

or go to joegavazzisports.com/shop

_______________________________________________________________

A MOST CHALLENGING YEAR 

It has been over a year, March 12, 2020, since they pulled the plug on all National sporting events.  We were fortunate to get a reprieve of sorts with the most recent Football and Basketball Seasons being played.  Yet, it was never the same as before.  Whether COVID forced postponements or cancellations of games, or merely hung over our heads as a background to the action, the pandemic remained the greatest influence of sporting events in the previous 8 months.  I acknowledge it is important to keep this in perspective.  That is, it paled in comparison to the millions of lives lost and the tragedy suffered by many families.  Nonetheless, the disruption in scheduling that was caused, including the effects of the “pandemic pause”, made handicapping the past 8 months events one of the most challenging in the lengthy time of this bureau’s existence.

Most importantly, I wish to express my gratitude to all those of you who showed the loyalty and commitment to ride out what has been a stormy 8 months.  As more arms get vaccinated, and the economy again begins to open, we can all only hope that life begins its return to normalcy.  We all wish that by the beginning of 2021 football, including the expanded 17 game NFL Regular Season, that the influences of the pandemic will be considerably less.

Through all of the turmoil that we have suffered, there was clearly one shining light.  That was the record of our 6% plays which went a combined 20-7 ATS (74%) this CFB and CBKB Season, including a run of 7-1 ATS (87%) to complete the campaign.  As a result, these vaunted 6% plays draw the spotlight for what can only be termed the …

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__________________________________________________
 

CALL US at 724-715-7186 or respond to this email

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___________________________________________________

NCAA National Championship Game 

Gonzaga (-4-) vs. Baylor  9:20 PM ET CBS  Indianapolis, IN 

BY THE NUMBERS… It has been an NCAA Tourney with even more upsets and surprises than usual in the last 19 days.  In the end however, it is clear that the Nation’s 2 best teams will be playing for the National Title.  The numbers bear this to be true.  In the highly respected Ken Pom Ratings, we find that these teams are 1st (Gonzaga) and 2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency.  In a surprise to many, the Zags hold the defensive edge with the #8 to #27 ranking for Baylor.  Remember, this rating is not purely about points allowed, it is about number of points/100 possessions that an opponent scores.  Therefore, though Gonzaga gives up more points than Baylor, due to their high-scoring offense, their opponents get more possessions, from which they score at a lower rate of efficiency.  With edges of 3.0 on offense, and 1.9 on defense, the combined number is slightly more than the pointspread.  That number is slightly offset by the fact that Baylor has played a slightly more difficult schedule than the Zags making this impost right where it should be according to “the numbers”.  Each team is superbly coached, has a balanced starting 5, quality depth, and hunger to bring the respective schools their 1st National Title.  So where is our edge?

THE REALITY CHECK…  It has been 12 games since Baylor returned from their 21 day pandemic pause.  They struggled through the first 7 games back going 2-5 SU, ATS culminating with their CCT loss to Oklahoma State.  Since the beginning of NCAA play however, they have returned to their mid-season form.  They will enter this Title Game with great confidence following wins of 9 or more in every Tourney game. Even though an underdog, they will not lack for confidence especially seeing the vulnerability of Gonzaga in their Saturday night escape from UCLA.  For many, the Baylor Bears will be considered to be a “live underdog”.

It is, however, that narrow win by Gonzaga which provides us with the key mental edge in this game.  Having defeated 27 consecutive opponents by double digits, including their 4 previous NCAA rivals by 16 or more points, the Zags may certainly have been a bit overconfident realizing they were 14 point chalk over a #11 seeded UCLA team.  The Bruins used their own positive momentum and the mental edge of underdog to give the Zags their biggest scare of the season since December 2nd vs. West Virginia.  Forewarned is forearmed.   Thus, with the mental edge of that narrow victory working in their favor, I expect Gonzaga to return to the mental and physical sharpness that characterized their previous tourney games.  In short, it is the REALITY CHECK that was the narrow victory over UCLA which provides us with a mental edge in this game leading to my STRONG OPINION ONLY on the Zags in tonight’s Tourney Title Clash!  In a matchup of perimeter power, best edge on the inside is the Zags Drew Timme vs. the Baylor duo of Thamba and Vital.

NBA play for Monday

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___________________________________________________

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38-18 ATS and 19-7 ATS   BETA TEST RESULTS confirm success of Recency Theory

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________________________________________________________ 

NBA… THIS IS HOW WE DO IT!

Even without the effects of a pandemic, the NBA is a long and grueling grind.  It normally exceeds 100 games for teams in the NBA Finals.  As a result, what happens in the first couple months of the season is often not indicative of the current form of the team.  Injuries, trades and chemistry can change tremendously through the course of the season.  THAT IS WHY THE BEST WAY TO HANDICAP THE NBA IS WITH A RECENCY MODEL.   I use two Recency Models.  One is based on the highly successful RAT Model I built for CBKB handicapping.  The other is a computer based model which isolates current form.  Together, these will isolate our daily plays which will perform as well as any you can find.

Once the NBA Playoffs begin, it’s a whole new ballgame.  The Recency Models are again indicative, but with teams playing the same opponent for as long as a 7 game set, it is important to understand the value of the Zig/Zag Model.  Simply stated, it means playing ON the team who lost the previous game of the series.  Though this simple idea normally provides nominal profit, there are key parameters and tighteners which push this level of success to over 60%.

Here’s hoping you join me for the success we will have during Springtime in the NBA.  Go to joegavazzisports.com/SHOP to sign up and join us.

CALL NOW at 724-715-7186
Email us at wsa@joegavazzisports.com
or go to joegavazzisports.com/shop

_________________________________________________________

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NICKLE JUICE A MUST 

What you save is what you earn!  I have saved a lot of “juice” this Football and Basketball Season by playing at Loose Lines.  You can do the same.  Get Nickle juice now!

CALL Customer Service at 888-446-8151  or  Click on LOOSE LINES
Use Code Joe 150 to get your FREE SIGN UP BONUS

________________________________________________________

MLB…THIS IS HOW WE DO IT!

With the advent of the 2002 movie “Money Ball”, sabermetric handicapping has become a major part of a handicapper’s analysis when betting the bases.  Since that time, I used just about every metric available in search of a methodology which would provide consistent winners.  In the final analysis, I emerged with my “OPS Theory of MLB Handicapping”.

This OPS Theory, simplified, is the sum of a team’s OPS batting, plus the inverse to 1.000, of a team’s pitching.  After ranking these numbers for each team from 1-30, I then compare it to the W/L rank of each MLB team.  When there is a difference of 5 or more positions, we have a play. That is to say, a PLAY ON a team if their OPS rank is 5 points superior to their W/L rank, and PLAY AGAINST a team if their OPS rank is 5 points inferior to their W/L rank.  As a subjective opinion, I compare the bullpen OPS rank of each team.

In OPS, a walk counts one for on-base and zero for slugging, while any hit counts one for on base and the number of bases for slugging.  So counting both OBA and SLG, a single counts 2 and a homer 5.  These are in about the same proportion as in linear weights.  That is why OPS works so well.

I perform the operation of OPS rankings every Monday and Thursday morning prior to the start of each new series.  That is why you often see the same teams on the selection sheet in consecutive days.  When plays are mutually exclusive, I immediately exclude them from consideration.  In addition, I break down the plays into 4 distinct classifications.

ON home teams

ON away teams

AGAINST home teams

AGAINST away teams

What about pitching?  Of course it is important!  But starting pitching is accurately reflected in the line, my OPS Model includes pitching, and the Bullpen OPS is now worth 33% of the pitching handicap.

As a further consideration, I EXCLUDE money line plays where the line is more than 1.50.  Games where the line is more than 1.50 are included as run line selections only when my run line chart, which I update daily, shows that a PLAY ON or PLAY AGAINST team qualifies in an over 80% situation.

RUN LINE WINNERS

Dating to 2010, I have tracked the result of every MLB game, home and away, by margin of victory of 2 runs or more.  With 9 years of data in the rear view mirror, there is one salient conclusion that can be made:

MLB TEAMS WIN THE GAME BY 2 OR MORE RUNS 74% OF THE TIME

Because the home team does not bat in the bottom of the 9th if leading, and the road team is always looking to secure as large a lead after batting in their half of the 9th inning, the 9 year average shows road teams to win a game by 2 or more runs 74% of the time while home teams win a game by 2 or more runs, 68% of the time.

In 2019, however, these Run line results increased to 71% for home and 77% for away teams, or a combined result of 74% that the winning score is 2 or more runs.

The question often asked is to how I use this run line data.  I first handicap the contest with a basis of the handicapping being my OPS rankings.  I then check the betting line and my MLB 80% team trends to see if I can turn a favored team into an underdog price.  When that happens, I feel comfortable making it a run line play.

The explanation of this model may seem a bit intricate as described above.  I assure you however, that the OPS indicator is the best metric I have found for isolating MLB winners.  Combined with my unique and proprietary run line methods, this analysis provides a healthy profit in an MLB Season.  You can do these many hours of work yourself each day of the week, or you can follow my conclusions for as little as $5/day by signing up at joegavazzisports.com/SHOP

Joe Gavazzi

CALL NOW at 724-715-7186

Email us at wsa@joegavazzisports.com

or go to joegavazzisports.com/shop

_____________________________________________________

BUY ONE OF OUR SPRING PACKAGES FOR MLB & NBA AND GET BALANCE OF NCAA ACTION FREE. 

Tuesday’s NCAA Tourney action up now!  These games are fully analyzed.  Be the smartest guy in the room.

_________________________________________________________

College Basketball Executive Selections 

Monday, March 29th

DON’T MAKE A MOVE WITHOUT READING THESE ANALYSES 

As you well know, we have been blitzing the NCAA Tournament with a 6-1 ATS run of 6% plays. Our 9 year record on these beauties is 70%.   You never can tell when one may pop on any given night.  Like tonight, maybe. My game analyses for Monday is presented to you WITHOUT a rating.  They could be rated “Opinion Only”, 3%, 4%, 5% or 6% of bankroll.  These NCAA rated selections, including the ones tonight, are available to you for FREE with any springtime sign up for NBA and MLB  for as low as $5/day.

Read “This Is How We Do It” for both Baseball or NBA and sign up for the package of your choice.  Looking forward to having you along for a profitable ride.  These are the UNRATED Monday night winners. 

NCAA

Houston (-7-) vs. Oregon State  7:15 PM ET CBS

Leave it to Beaver(s).  On February 20th, Oregon State was 11-11 SU appearing as if they may challenge the Huskies and Cougars for the 12th spot in the PAC 12 standings where they were predicted to finish.  Then the magic started.  Since that time, the Beavers are 9-1 SU, ATS including 6 CONSECUTIVE OUTRIGHT UNDERDOG WINNERS in the CCT and NCAA, all as a +5 or more underdog.  Unprecedented… as it is for a #12 seed to be playing in the Elite Eight.  Beating Houston however, the highest ranked team they have faced, would be more problematic than any of those 6 victories.

They are talking PHI SLAMMA JAMMA in H-town, and with good reason.  At 27-3, the Cougars roll in here on a 10 game winning streak in which they have allowed only 1 opponent, Memphis, to score more than 60  points against them.  That clamped down defense is key against a mediocre Beaver attack that prefers a slow pace and solid defense of their own to win against their previous 6 post season opponents.  But this is the wrong matchup for Oregon State.  Houston has 3 quality guards in Grimes, Sasser and Jarreau, the latter a lockdown defender capable of smothering the Beavers best boy, Ethan Thompson.  The Cougars other main advantage is on the glass with a +9.3 net TO margin, many of which come on the offensive end.  Quite simply, this is a bad matchup for the underdog.  In the Elite Eight, seeded teams 4 or higher, coming off 4 consecutive straight up dog wins, have a less than 20% chance to cover against seeds 1,2 or 3.  Here’s your issue:  7 of those 10 Houston victories have come by an average margin of 31 PPG.  The other 3 however, came by margins of 3 or less, 2 against Memphis, and 1 against Rutgers, both teams who feature the same type of profile as this Oregon State team.  One further thought, with the current line and total, the linemaker is predicting that Oregon State will score 61 points.  I would be very surprised if the Beavers reach this number at the projected pace of play against this Houston defense.

Baylor (-7-) vs. Arkansas 10:00 PM ET CBS 

Baylor has held the #2 spot in the land for most of the season.  There were however, some chinks in the armor when they came off their 3 week COVID pause on February 23rd.  A loss to Kansas knocked them from the ranks of the unbeaten. They were then knocked from the BIG 12 CCT by an upstart Ok State team.  That seemed to set off an alarm for the Bears, as with 7 games under their belt since that COVID pause, they entered the NCAA Tourney with a renewed vigor.  All wins have come by double digits in this event where the Bears have allowed just 55 PPG.  The true buy sign however, came Saturday evening when their lockdown defense proved the difference in their 11 point comeback win vs. a quality Villanova team.  A poor 3 point shooting night allowed the final score to be closer than the game really was.  Expect that to change as the Baylor marksmen average 42% on triples.

Must give respect to 2nd year HC Musselman who brought his transfer philosophy from Nevada where he authored multiple NCAA teams.  Per usual, much of a Musselman team’s success came on their home court.  Of more note is the fact that, in Arkansas’s last 5 victories, they trailed each of their opponents by double digits.  Let that happen against a buy sign Baylor team and Arkansas could revisit losses of 31 to Alabama, and 16 to LSU in the SEC campaign, games where they allowed 90 or more points/game.  One final note… it is an over 80% momentum play in the Elite Eight to follow spread winners AGAINST spread losers in their previous game.

_____________________________________________________________

You missed again on my 4-1 ATS Saturday.  But there is still time to get the balance of NCAA Tourney at no cost to you.

Again you missed my 4-1 ATS Saturday     
                                    6% HOUSTON 62-46  WIN!  Cover by 10
                                    5% Baylor  62-51  WIN!  Cover by 4
                                    4% Loyola-Chicago 58-65  Lose
                                    3% Memphis 90-67  WIN!  Cover by 19
                                    3% Miss State 84-62  WIN!  Cover by 22
Compare to your selections, hope you did as well.

7-1 ATS (87%) 6% Run    

20-7 ATS (74%) 6% CFB + CBKB This Season

78-34 ATS (70%) 6% CBKB last 9 years! 

FREE Balance of NCAA Tourney Selections

With your sign up for any Spring NBA or MLB Package, as low as $5/day 

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__________________________________

How long are you going to lose with your own opinion
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__________________________________________________________          

THIS IS HOW WE DO IT!

We begin the NBA & MLB very soon!!!

NBA… THIS IS HOW WE DO IT!

Even without the effects of a pandemic, the NBA is a long and grueling grind.  It normally exceeds 100 games for teams in the NBA Finals.  As a result, what happens in the first couple months of the season is often not indicative of the current form of the team.  Injuries, trades and chemistry can change tremendously through the course of the season.  THAT IS WHY THE BEST WAY TO HANDICAP THE NBA IS WITH A RECENCY MODEL.   I use two Recency Models.  One is based on the highly successful RAT Model I built for CBKB handicapping.  The other is a computer based model which isolates current form.  Together, these will isolate our daily plays which will perform as well as any you can find.

Once the NBA Playoffs begin, it’s a whole new ballgame.  The Recency Models are again indicative, but with teams playing the same opponent for as long as a 7 game set, it is important to understand the value of the Zig/Zag Model.  Simply stated, it means playing ON the team who lost the previous game of the series.  Though this simple idea normally provides nominal profit, there are key parameters and tighteners which push this level of success to over 60%.

Here’s hoping you join me for the success we will have during Springtime in the NBA.  Go to joegavazzisports.com/SHOP to sign up and join us.

MLB…THIS IS HOW WE DO IT!

With the advent of the 2002 movie “Money Ball”, sabermetric handicapping has become a major part of a handicapper’s analysis when betting the bases.  Since that time, I used just about every metric available in search of a methodology which would provide consistent winners.  In the final analysis, I emerged with my “OPS Theory of MLB Handicapping”.

This OPS Theory, simplified, is the sum of a team’s OPS batting, plus the inverse to 1.000, of a team is pitching.  After ranking these numbers for each team from 1-30, I then compare it to the W/L rank of each MLB team.  When there is a difference of 5 or more positions, we have a play. That is to say, a PLAY ON a team if their OPS rank is 5 points superior to their W/L rank, and PLAY AGAINST a team if their OPS rank is 5 points inferior to their W/L rank.  As a subjective opinion, I compare the bullpen OPS rank of each team.

I perform the operation of OPS rankings every Monday and Thursday morning prior to the start of each new series.  That is why you often see the same teams on the selection sheet in consecutive days.  When plays are mutually exclusive, I immediately exclude them from consideration.  In addition, I break down the plays into 4 distinct classifications.

ON home teams

ON away teams

AGAINST home teams

AGAINST away teams

What about pitching?  Of course it is important!  But starting pitching is accurately reflected in the line, my OPS Model includes pitching, and the Bullpen OPS is now worth 33% of the pitching handicap.

As a further consideration, I EXCLUDE money line plays where the line is more than 1.50.  Games where the line is more than 1.50 are included as run line selections only when my run line chart, which I update daily, shows that a PLAY ON or PLAY AGAINST team qualifies in an over 80% situation.

The explanation of this model may seem a bit intricate as described above.  I assure you however, that the OPS indicator is the best metric I have found for isolating MLB winners.  Combined with my unique and proprietary run line methods, this analysis provides a healthy profit in an MLB Season.  You can do these many hours of work yourself each day of the week, or you can follow my conclusions for as little as $5/day by signing up at joegavazzisports.com/SHOP

___________________________________________________________

****** WE HAVE A WINNER! ******

Tom G.  Won and, not only beat the man, but BEAT EVERYONE!  Congrats Tom and enjoy the rest of the season.

Beat the Man in the Sweet 16!

  • Submit YOUR Sweet Sixteen Bracket to us by 10:00 AM  on Friday, March 18th  via email

  • Pick each Round #1 and Round #2 winner, 48 selections in all, each worth 1 point, most points is winner with 48 a perfect score.

  • Get Joe’s Friday Executive Service FREE just for submitting.

Choose more winners than JOE …

GET THE BALANCE OF

MARCH MADNESS thru Final Four FREE

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Time to take off the rubberband AND
LET THE FUR FLY
Email us with your Round of 32 and Sweet 16 Bracket at wsa@joegavazzisports.com

______________________________________________________

DOGS ARE BARKIN’  28-15  (65%)

14 outright wins

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What Our Clients Have to Say

Nice run, Joe but you know I’m not surprised.  Virtually every year I have been with you since the early 90s there has been a 60% run of 200 or more games.  You may just be the GOAT at College hoop capping.

Steve P

Nice “All Sport Run” as you call it, Joe.  Thanks!  My new part time job is finding more “outs”!

JB

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