College FB Articles from Joe Gavazzi

SEARCHING FOR VALUE IN THE EARLY WEEKS OF CFB

by Joe Gavazzi, JoeGavazziSports.com

Never in my lengthy career as a College Football Handicapper has there ever been a more challenging Preseason in terms of year-to-year team adjustments and ratings.

Let’s call it the “Covid Conundrum”.  The pandemic produced many challenges for CFB coaches (and handicappers) in the 2020 Season.  Many programs had limited or NO SPRING PRACTICES.  Three teams didn’t even bother to suit up.  No games!  Others would begin the season in early September, while some waited an extra 8 weeks.  Seasons ranged from 3 to 12 games.  “Crazy” is an overused word these days.  But it WAS “crazy”!  To continue reading… https://joegavazzisports.com/searching-for-value/

___________________________________________

CFB QB TRANSFERS 2021

by Joe Gavazzi  JoeGavazziSports.com

If you review my article on “Searching for Early Season Value”, you will recall that between “Super Seniors” and “Transfers”, there are now 94 FBS teams who will have 17 or more returning starters.  An average of 76% returning production is unprecedented.  The scope of this article is to detail the incredible number of 31 transfer signal callers who will likely be at the helm of their teams this season.   The order of this list is by strength of conference.  Each transfer will be given a letter grade with my prediction of how much they will lend to their teams success. 

Georgia (B)…   JT Daniels  (USC)  To continue reading… https://joegavazzisports.com/cfb-qb-transfers-2021/

___________________________________________________

NEW CFB HEAD COACHES FOR 2021 

by Joe Gavazzi    JoeGavazziSports.com

Following a COVID conflicted year, you would think he College Administrators would have a bit of mercy.  Not so, for 17 coaches who took the ax despite battling through the challenges of the Pandemic last year.  The following is a list of 17 replacements and their prognosis for the upcoming season. 

Auburn ~ Brian Harsin To continue reading… https://joegavazzisports.com/new-cfb-head-coaches-2021/

____________________________________

2021 CFB TEAMS TO BOUNCE BACK BIG

By Joe Gavazzi  JoeGavazziSports.com

Every August I present a list of CFB teams who have underperformed in the previous season and are expected to BOUNCE BACK BIG in the current campaign.  In the past, these teams have had an extraordinary history of success both SU and ATS.  They are presented, for your ease of use, in alphabetical order.

Arkansas State to continue reading… https://joegavazzisports.com/2021-cfb-teams-to-bounce-back-big/

_________________________________

TOP 20 CFB DEFENSIVE DANDIES for 2021

By Joe Gavazzi   JoeGavazziSports.com

This list of 20 teams is the combination of defensive squads who had a superior stop unit last year and return the vast majority of their players for the upcoming season.  To qualify, a team must have the same Head Coach as the previous season, allowed 26 or less PPG, and 380 or less YPG.  They must have 75% or more of their tackles returning and 80% or more of the combination of defensive sacks, tackles for loss, and interceptions returning, per Phil Steele’s CFB Preview. To continue reading… https://joegavazzisports.com/top-20-cfb-defensive-dandies-for-2021/

_____________________________________

KEEP ON TRACKIN’

By Joe Gavazzi    JoeGavazziSports.com

This most illuminating chart has been a part of the Pointspread Prognosis this millennium.  A reader favorite, it is set to return for the 2021 CFB and NFL Season.  It is proof positive that the key elements in pointspread outcomes are DOMINANCE AT THE POINT OF ATTACK AND TURNOVERS. To continue reading… https://joegavazzisports.com/keep-on-trackin-3/

_____________________________________

_____________________

2021 HIDDEN GEMS

By Joe Gavazzi  JoeGavazziSports.com

My Annual List of HIDDEN GEMS is a group of teams who had a losing record the previous year, and in most cases at least several years before that.  These teams will be poorly perceived by the betting public.  The key with these teams is to make your move on them before the linemaker catches up.  As you will read, the dominant reasons for their projected improvement comes from a group of factors that may include a new coach, a new coordinator, a transfer QB, or a plethora of Power 5 transfers.  Keep your eye on these teams in the early going before the line catches up. 

Colorado State Rams

Looking at his numbers from his last three seasons at his former affiliation, Boston College, it is obvious that 2nd year HC Addazio wants to run the football.  In 2019, his final season at Chestnut Hill, his Eagles averaged 254/5.1 overland.  Thus it was a major disappointment to the coach when his team could muster just 126/3.3 overland and averaged just 22 PPG in the pandemic plagued season of 2020 when the Rams went 1-3 SU, ATS.  To continue readinghttps://joegavazzisports.com/hidden-gems/

_______________

Football Has Huge Returns on Your Investment

HOW I BEAT THE NFL

By Joe Gavazzi

In recent seasons, the short passing game has dominated offense in the NFL.  With fewer holding penalties scores have ballooned to OVER 50 PPG in 2020.  So, handicapping the passing game must be the way to win, right?  ABSOLUTELY NOT!  There are two factors that lead to ATS winners in the NFL: THE RUNNING GAME and TURNOVERS.

Let’s first take a look at the ground game. This millennium, since the 2000 Season, I have tracked every NFL boxscore.

Here are the UNDENIABLE FACTS:

75% ATS L20Y (400-120 ATS (77%)  L3Y)   Any team who outrushed their opponent by 30 or more yards.

87% ATS L20Y (382-78 ATS (83%)  L3Y)   Any team who rushes the ball 30 or more times, in a game, if opponent does not.

87% ATS L20Y (388-74 ATS (84%)  L3Y)  PLAY AGAINST any team who runs the ball 22 or less times if opponent does not.

91% ATS L20Y (433-48 ATS (90%)  L3Y)   The ATS record of the SU winner in every game when the line is 6 or less.

Knowing these numbers simplifies the handicap.  Using teams’ RUSH YARDS/GM and teams’ YPR (both on offense and defense) allows us to compare these yardsticks to determine which team in the matchup will outrush their opponent by 30 or more yards, IN GAMES WHERE THE LINE IS 6 or less points.

But, what about TURNOVERS?

We know we can’t predict them.  But, how can we use them to our advantage?

Most NFL blowouts are a function of turnovers which skew the final score.  In games such as this, especially when the losing team has the better stats, WE HAVE HIDDEN VALUE.  Not only does the losing team have extra value in the line, but they often have an emotional edge after a game with negative turnover margin.  And, of course, the reverse is true for the winning team whose margin came too easily.

Here are the facts since 2000.

91% ATS L20Y (120-9 ATS (93%)  L3Y)   Any team who has a +3+ Net TO margin in a game.

77% ATS L20Y (260-66 ATS (80%)  L3Y)   Any team who has a +2 Net TO margin in a game.

THESE MISLEADING FINALS are called “Faux or Fo’ Real” games or “Perception/Reality” games and provide great opportunities to PLAY ON and PLAY AGAINST these teams in their following game.

The (2) above NFL handicapping methodologies are the best way I know to isolate winners on the NFL card.

I invite you to join me for a Season of NFL winners by calling 724-715-7186.

 

 

How Football Picks Work

Select the Package or Subscription That Suits You

Create an Account and Check Out.

View Picks Online or in Your E-mail Inbox.

CFB 5 to10 plays every Saturday All 40 Bowl Games + selected Totals Selections and opinions on weekday games.

All plays rated 3% to 6% of bankroll. All plays released via email.

 

NFL 5 to 10 Sides & Totals every Sunday.  All 4 weeks of Playoffs thru Super Bowl Selections and opinions on weekday games.

All plays rated 3% to 5% of bankroll.  All plays released via email.