Welcome to our 2021 MLB Season 

MLB run last 53 Days  + $16,224

Last 31 Days + $9,364

THIS IS FUN!

Get it FREE with “The Whole Shebang” 
ALL FB & BKB thru Final Four 2022  $1995
CALL US at 724-715-7186  No bait and switch… it is what it is!

______________________________________

RUNLINE REPORT OF JULY 1ST 2021

We are just shy of the half way point in the MLB Season with 3 months of play completed.  An average of 8.9 RPG is being plated this season, with possibilities of increased scoring (and more 2 run victories?) with the crack down on “substance abuse” in MLB.  Here are the key records for runline followers, based on my unique and proprietary runline numbers.

  • 343-252 (57.8%)  Home record of National League teams
  • 322-280 (53.5)  Home record of American League teams
  • 240/343 (70%)  NL home team victories by 2 or more runs
  • 226/322 (70.2%) AL home team victories by 2 or more runs
  • 179/240 (72%) NL road victories by 2 or more runs
  • 220/283 (77.7%) AL road victories by 2 or more runs
  • 865/1197 (72.3%)  All MLB victories by 2 or more runs

As they apply, on days in which I do game-by-game analyses, you will see the individual team runline numbers of note.  In this regard, see the introduction in which I point out the Houston vs. Cleveland dichotomous numbers.

_____________________________________________

MLB…THIS IS HOW WE DO IT!

With the advent of the 2002 movie “Money Ball”, sabermetric handicapping has become a major part of a handicapper’s analysis when betting the bases.  Since that time, I used just about every metric available in search of a methodology which would provide consistent winners.  In the final analysis, I emerged with my “OPS Theory of MLB Handicapping”.

This OPS Theory, simplified, is the sum of a team’s OPS batting, plus the inverse to 1.000, of a team’s pitching.  After ranking these numbers for each team from 1-30, I then compare it to the W/L rank of each MLB team.  When there is a difference of 5 or more positions, we have a play. That is to say, a PLAY ON a team if their OPS rank is 5 points superior to their W/L rank, and PLAY AGAINST a team if their OPS rank is 5 points inferior to their W/L rank.  As a subjective opinion, I compare the bullpen OPS rank of each team.

In OPS, a walk counts one for on-base and zero for slugging, while any hit counts one for on base and the number of bases for slugging.  So counting both OBA and SLG, a single counts 2 and a homer 5.  These are in about the same proportion as in linear weights.  That is why OPS works almost as well.

I perform the operation of OPS rankings every Monday and Thursday morning prior to the start of each new series.  That is why you often see the same teams on the selection sheet in consecutive days.  When plays are mutually exclusive, I immediately exclude them from consideration.  In addition, I break down the plays into 4 distinct classifications.

ON home teams

ON away teams

AGAINST home teams

AGAINST away teams

What about pitching?  Of course it is important!  But starting pitching is accurately reflected in the line, my OPS Model includes pitching, and the Bullpen OPS is now worth 33% of the pitching handicap.

As a further consideration, I EXCLUDE money line plays where the line is more than 1.50.  Games where the line is more than 1.50 are included as run line selections only when my run line chart, which I update daily, shows that a PLAY ON or PLAY AGAINST team qualifies in an over 80% situation.

RUN LINE WINNERS

Dating to 2010, I have tracked the result of every MLB game, home and away, by margin of victory of 2 runs or more.  With 9 years of data in the rear view mirror, there is one salient conclusion that can be made:

MLB TEAMS WIN THE GAME BY 2 OR MORE RUNS 74% OF THE TIME

Because the home team does not bat in the bottom of the 9th if leading, and the road team is always looking to secure as large a lead after batting in their half of the 9th inning, the 9 year average shows road teams to win a game by 2 or more runs 74% of the time while home teams win a game by 2 or more runs, 68% of the time.

In 2019, however, these Run line results increased to 71% for home and 77% for away teams, or a combined result of 74% that the winning score is 2 or more runs.

The question often asked is to how I use this run line data.  I first handicap the contest with a basis of the handicapping being my OPS rankings (see separate article on this site), I then check the betting line and my MLB 80% team trends to see if I can turn a favored team into an underdog price.  When that happens, I feel comfortable making it a run line play.

The explanation of this model may seem a bit intricate as described above.  I assure you however, that the OPS indicator is the best metric I have found for isolating MLB winners.  Combined with my unique and proprietary run line methods, this analysis provides a healthy profit in an MLB Season.  You can do these many hours of work yourself each day of the week, or you can follow my conclusions for as little as $5/day by signing up at joegavazzisports.com/SHOP

THE SECRET SAUCE 

by Joe Gavazzi

MLB parity, with teams (unlike other sports) gravitating to the .400 to .600 win percentage, is the basic reason why we profit from teams who are over-performing and under-performing with my “OPS Theory”.

But there is another (momentum) use of my “OPS Theory” which isolates HOME TEAM PLAYS, using the home/road OPS number of my theory, to produce huge profit.

Naturally, many of these are “Big Chalk”.  And that is where my “Run Line Theory” takes over.  I translate these plays to mostly UNDERDOG RUN LINE PRICES, when one (or both) of the teams has a home and/or away record of winning, or losing, their games, home or away, at a BETTER THAN 75% PERCENTAGE.  THIS IS A PARTY!  GET THERE EARLY!

Here is an example of their success in the 2021 Season.  From May 1st thru April 14th, the Home/Road Dichotomy numbers are 80-36 (69%) while the YTD numbers in that same time frame have gone a mind-boggling 28-3 (90%).

NOW $295 

YOU MAKE TWICE THIS MUCH DAILY

AVERAGING $557/Day

$557/day CASH $$$ IN YOUR POCKET

That’s a lot of WAM!

Joe Gavazzi’s MLB Selections

+$14,477  last 26 days

More WINNERS tonight up right now! 

WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR?!!!

Go to JoeGavazziSports.com/SHOP

*******************************************************************

MLB OPS Theory Confirmed

The new OPS numbers have been set for the series from Friday, May 21st to Sunday, May 23rd.  TEAMS ARE AT LAST GRAVITATING (in terms of W/L rank) TO THEIR OPS RANK.

There are only 5 PLAY ON OPS teams who have an OPS rank of 5 positions or better than their W/L rank.  Those teams (with their OPS advantage) are as follows:  Washington (+9). Cincinnati (+8), LA Dodgers (+7), Minnesota (+7), NYY (+5). 

The PLAY AGAINST OPS TEAMS (with their numerical difference in parenthesis) are as follows:  Oakland (-12), Seattle (-10), Philadelphia (-6), Kansas City (-5).

There are two matchups in which the OPS differential, confirmed by the H/A OPS differential, are greater than 100 points.  Those are, with their respected differences in parenthesis, Houston (+146 & 133) vs. Texas, and San Diego (+139 & +139) vs. Seattle.

______________________________________________________________________

2021 Run Line Report  

thru May 16th  

There was a bit of a dip in scoring in the 1st two weeks of May.  It translated to a slight drop in games decided by 2 or more runs.  Though home team figures remained constant at 67.7% of games decided by 2 or more runs, the road numbers took a minor hit dropping from 77.6% to 76.4%.  For the YTD, the record of games decided by 2 or more runs is:

430-169 (71.8%)  

To refresh your memory, I break down the record of wins and losses for each team, home and away, at a margin of victory or defeat by 2 or more runs.  When a team’s situation is 80% or higher, they are a candidate for a run line play.  This is used in conjunction with the OPS BUY RATINGS and SELL RATINGS based not only on a team’s YTD performance (vis a vis their W/L rank), but also their home/road OPS numbers as compared to this year’s W/L rank.  Critical pitching information then completes the picture relying on a starter’s OPS, WHIP, and the inherited runners scored % by a team’s bullpen.

Taking a look at the early week’s matchups, the following are some run line numbers to consider.

Arizona at LA Dodgers 

            17/18 losses, including 8/9 away, by 2+ runs for Arizona

            18/22 wins, 10/12 home for the LA Dodgers

Colorado at San Diego  

            12/14 road losses by 2+ runs for Colorado

            Huge IS % dichotomy favors the Padres

CWS at Minnesota 

            20/24 wins, including 12/13 MRT, and 9/10 away for CWS

            9/12 losses by 2+ for Minnesota

            Huge IS % edge for CWS

NY Yankees at Texas 

            17/22 wins by 2+ for NYY

            8/10 home losses by Texas

Cleveland at LAA 

            18/21 wins, including 10/11 away for Cleveland

            19/22 Ls, including 9/9 home for the Angels

            Major IS % edge for Cleveland

Detroit at Seattle 

            13/14 road losses by 2+ runs for Detroit

Series beginning Tuesday 

Pittsburgh at St. Louis 

            20/23 losses by 2+ runs for Pittsburgh

            19/23 wins by 2+ for St. Louis

Tampa Bay at Baltimore 

            10/12 road wins for Tampa Bay

            18/23 losses by 2+ for Baltimore

Boston at Toronto 

            12/15 losses, including 5/5 home, for Toronto

Houston at Oakland 

            20/24 wins, including 8/9 by 2+ for Houston

            9/11 home losses by 2+ runs for Oakland

Milwaukee at Kansas City 

            9/11 road wins by 2+ for Milwaukee

            11/12 home losses by 2+ for Kansas City

OPS PLAY ON teams for this series 

Cincinnati, Washington, LA Dodgers, Minnesota, Detroit

OPS Home/Road PLAY ON teams for this series 

San Francisco, Atlanta, Washington, LA Angels

OPS PLAY AGAINST teams for this series 

Philadelphia, Arizona, Toronto, Cleveland, Oakland, Seattle, Kansas City

OPS Home/Road PLAY AGAINST teams for this series 

Miami, Chicago Cubs, Tampa Bay, Texas, Oakland, Seattle

Note:  In the just completed series of Sunday, the PLAY ON teams were a combined 19-9 while FADING the PLAY AGAINST teams would have yielded a negative record of 9-17.  Faux or Fo’ Real? 

_______________________________________________________________________

+$2842 MLB Profit

Coinciding with the advent of runline selections we have seen profit of +$2846 in the last 8 days of MLB selections.  With parity continuing across the board — only 3 teams greater than .600 and 3 teams worse than .400 — expect the prices to stay reasonable providing us with our runline selections that turn big favorites into underdogs.  The chart I am presenting below will give us additional ammunition in determining which teams – based on their PLAY ON or PLAY AGAINST OPS rating — will be best suited for run line selections.  Before presenting this chart however, please allow me to introduce it with this information on home teams.

At the beginning of the MLB Season, home teams were winning barely more than 50% of the games.  Increasing numbers of fans in the stands – which will be even truer now that CDC has issued its guidelines of “no masks for the vaxed” has increased the home teams winning percentage.  Entering Thursday action, home teams were 283-257 (52.4%).  More intriguing news in that regard is the AL vs. NL dichotomy; the split shows us that NL home teams are 151-115 (56.7%), while their AL home counterparts are just 132-142 (47.8%).  This is a nice segue into my presentation of OPS home/road dichotomies.

The chart below shows the OPS home/road differential for each of the 30 teams from best to worst.   Please note however, that it does not take into account Strength of Schedule or Historical Home Field Advantage such as the altitude of Coors Field in Denver.  Just a reminder here:  a team’s OPS number is the sum of its OPS batting and its inverted OPS pitching number.  See “This is How We Do It” at JoeGavazziSports.com for my OPS Theory.  FYI:  the home OPS average is 1034.8 compared to 971.1 for road teams.  All data presented is for games thru Wednesday, May 12th.

Rank Team H/A Diff HM Rank HM OPS AW Rank AW OPS
1 Colorado +263 18 1015 30 752
2 Detroit +188 23 972 29 784
3 Chicago Cubs +177 16 1032 28 855
4 Atlanta +175 13 1044 27 869
5 NY Mets +165 1-2 1157 15 992
6 Toronto +161 8 1096 22 935
7 Philadelphia +146 15 1039 26 893
8 Cincinnati +145 6 1106 19 961
9 Arizona +131 11 1053 24 922
10 Miami +128 10 1058 23 930
11 CWS +104 4 1167 4 1062
12 LAA +101 14 1040 20 939
13 Boston +100 3 1168 2 1068
14 San Francisco +96 5 1135 8 1039
15 LAD +94 1-2 1175 1 1081
16 Houston +46 7 1100 6 1054
17 Kansas City +37 24-25 964 25 917
18 Washington +35 19 1000 17 965
19 NY Yankees +17 9 1078 5 1061
20 St. Louis +4 12 1051 7 1047
21 Oakland -5 20 990 13-14 995
22 Seattle -20 29 917 21 937
23 Minnesota -31 24-25 964 13-14 995
24 Texas -36 27 954 16 980
25 Tampa Bay -41 26 959 12 1000
26 Pittsburgh -44 28 920 18 964
27-28 San Diego -45 17 1019 3 1064
27-28 Cleveland -45 21-22 979 10 1024
29 Milwaukee -51 21-22 979 9 1030
30 Baltimore -103 30 914 11 1017

Though this chart is most informative for presenting home/road dichotomies, it also has value in allowing me to isolate (much in the same way as the combined OPS rank) which teams are outperforming or underperforming their W/L percentage rank.  Here are a couple of examples to prove my point:

Atlanta has an 8-9 road record, 15th best in MLB, but their road OPS number of 869 is good for just the 27th road ranking among all MLB teams.  This indicates a sell sign for Atlanta when playing on the road as the W/L record gravitates toward the OPS performance.

At the other end of the spectrum is a Boston Red Sox team who is 10-11 at home, good for the 18th best home record.  But their 1066 OPS home mark is 3rd best in the league indicating a difference of 15 positions which makes the Red Sox a PLAY ON team in their home games.

____________________________________________________________________

MLB Monday, May 3rd 

PARITY?… SO SOON

As I have written before, it has proven to be historically true, that 24 or more of the 30 teams in MLB have a W/L percentage of .400 to .600 at the conclusion of the season.  If you read the article “This is How We Do It”, you will see that the concept of parity is one of the main reasons why my OPS Theory works so well.  This year, after 4 weeks of play, and every team playing less than 30 games (under 20% of the schedule), an amazing 24 out of the 30 teams are playing from .407 to .586 baseball.  Only KC (.615), Milwaukee (.607), and SFG (.607), are above .600.  Note that none of those were projected to be there at the beginning of the season.  That factor alone indicates these teams will return to earth over time.  At the other end of the spectrum is but 3 teams playing less than .400. They are Detroit (.276) and Colorado (.357), along with Minnesota (.358), a team projected to play OVER .500 MLB.  That Minnesota record provides the perfect segue to our next topic.  For it is the Minnesota bullpen, with just a 44% save rate, and a league worst inherited runner scored % that is the worst in MLB.

RATING THE BULLPENS 

IS %… Inherited Runners Scored %.  The league average is 34%.  Here are the 4 worst teams in this category…  62% Minnesota, 51% Philadelphia, 50% LA Angels, 45% Cincinnati.   Here are the 4 best IS % teams… 15% NYY, 19% San Diego, 21% Kansas City, 21% Texas.

SAVE PERCENTAGE

Simply put, the percentage of games saved by the bullpen under the parameters described by MLB.  The league average is 62%.  Here are the 6 teams who saved less than 50% of their given opportunities… 33% Miami, 36% Arizona, 38% Colorado, 42% Cincinnati, 42% CWS, 44% Minnesota.  Here are the 6 best Save Percentage teams… 100% NYY, 100% Oakland, 88% Toronto, 80% St. Louis, 80% Cleveland, 80% Pittsburgh.

Putting the data together, one could make a case for the fact that, based on these parameters, Minnesota and Cincinnati have the league’s worst bullpens while NYY and Toronto have MLB’s best bullpens.

                

TEAM LINE PITCHER OPS % SAV IS % STR H/A TY

W/L

RANK

PROJ

W/L

RANK

 

+

 

OPS

RANK

 

+

 

OPS

OFF

INV

PITCH

OPS

TOT

OPS

SOS

RANK

Chicago Cubs +170 Davies 71 36 L2 2-4 16-19 20 20 703 281 984 22
Atlanta -180 Morton 650 63 23 L2 4-6 21-25 19-23 29 707 215 922 10
Miami +160 Rogers 521 36 36 L1 5-5 21-25 23 12 +9 661 344 1005 2
Milwaukee -170 Burnes 300 63 29 W2 4-5 5 14-15 -9 8-9 664 358 1022 28
Philadelphia -105 Wheeler 774 44 40 L1 2-7 16-19 16-18 26 -7 716 230 946 4
St Louis -105 Wainwright 86 29 W3 5-4 11 10-12 14 697 301 998 27
Colorado +155 Gomber 562 33 23 W1 0-6 28 29 22 +6 727 240 967 3
San Francisco -65 DeSclafani 606 61 44 W1 8-2 3-4 22 -18 4 685 379 1064 6
Cincinnati +174 Muhl 43 52 L7 2-7 21-25 16-18 6 +15 775 262 1037 25
LA Dodgers -185 Urias 569 64 24 L1 7-3 1 1 1 767 397 1164 21
Kansas City -105 Keller 70 20 W4 5-2 2 24 -24 11 -9 696 310 1006 23
Detroit -105 Turnbull 67 32 L4 3-7 30 26 30 621 267 888 19
Minnesota -120 Berrios 550 50 64 L2 4-6 29 7 +22 15 +14 702 294 996 29
Cleveland +110 Plesac 75 35 W1 5-5 20 16-18 19 653 333 986 26
NY Yankees -155 Garcia 100 17 L1 5-5 21-25 2 +19 10 +11 655 352 1007 17
Oakland -110 Manaea 691 100 40 L1 6-2 3-4 9 -5 24 -20 698 256 954 20
Tampa Bay Even Hill 54 27 L1 4-6 12-15 10-12 16 689 303 992 12
LA Angels -145 Ohtani 44 55 W1 4-6 12-15 14-15 8-9 750 272 1022 18
Texas +135 Lyles 794 50 19 L3 3-6 27 27 29 673 230 903 13
Seattle +155 Sheffield 70 35 L1 7-4 7 25 -18 17 -10 669 322 991 15
Houston -165 Urquidy 774 40 37 L1 4-6 16-19 8 +8 7 +9 774 289 1033 24

Explanation of terms:

Team, Line, Starting Pitcher – Self-explanatory

OPS – The starting pitcher’s personal OPS YTD (AVG. OPS circa .700),  minimum 16 IP required for this field

SAVE % – % opportunities a relief corps has saved a lead (59% League Average)

IS % – % of inherited runners by a reliever who scores (33% League Average)

Streak, H/A – Self-explanatory

TY W/L Rank – This year’s % rank in wins and losses as ranked in the 30 team League

Projected W/L Rank – Where the odds maker predicted the teams W/L % would be vis a vis the other 30 teams

OPS Rank – Each teams OPS rank of 1 to 30 of their OPS Offense plus Inverted Pitching OPS

Total OPS – The sum of OPS offense (batting) plus Inverted Pitching used to rank the teams 1 to 30

SOS – Year to date Strength of Schedule

+ or –   The first set, to the right of projected W/L rank, is the difference in position of a team’s winning % between their current W/L rank and the W/L projected rank

+ or –   The second set is a comparison of a team’s OPS rank with this year’s W/L rank

These + and – numbers, which have a meaningful value with a 5 or more difference, are the basis of the OPS handicapping.  A + number indicates a PLAY ON team.  A – number indicates a PLAY AGAINST team.  As the season plays on, there will seldom be more than 5 or 6 + or – teams for a given set of games.

In the Monday example above, we can see that the Astros positive numbers represent a PLAY ON situation (they were projected at #8, have an OPS rank of #7, each of which are 8 and 9 points respectively better than this year’s W/L rank(16-19).  The opposite is true, to even a greater degree, of the Seattle Mariners who have negative numbers of -18 and -10.  Astros should control this series.

________________________________________________________________

Just a couple of quick notes before we begin with selections, which will be out by 1:00 PM ET each day, OR no later than 1 hour before the start of the first game.

  • All selections will be released as “ACTION” plays.  This means you do not need to specify starting pitchers in your wager and that we will accept any pitching change and attendant line adjustment.  I strongly recommend using the tenets of my “Money Management System”.  This is available at joegavazzisports.com.
  • I also recommend that you play each selection RISKING THE AMOUNT OF THE % OF BANKROLL.  For your ease of computation, use the following chart below as a guideline for your wagering.
  • Finally, you may click the link to once again read “This is How We Do It” in regards to the methodology of handicapping MLB.  Although the teams have played only an average of 9 games (1 set of the normal 3 games I like to have before the minimum of 12 games), we will forge ahead with the data we have for the Monday thru Wednesday selections.
  • Remember, it is usual that the same teams will appear on multiple days of the current team matchup.

Risk Line 

$300 

$400 

$500 

 

To Win 

To Win 

To Win 

105

285.7

381.0

476.2

110

272.7

363.6

454.5

115

260.9

347.8

434.8

120

250.0

333.3

416.7

125

240.0

320.0

400.0

130

230.8

307.7

384.6

135

222.2

296.3

370.4

140

214.3

285.7

357.1

145

206.9

275.9

344.8

150

200.0

266.7

333.3

155

193.5

258.1

322.6

160

187.5

250.0

312.5

165

181.8

242.4

303.0

170

176.5

235.3

294.01

175

171.4

228.6

285.7

180

166.7

222.2

277.8

185

162.2

216.2

270.3

190

157.9

210.5

263.2

195

153.8

205.1

256.4

200

150.0

200.0

250.0

S.O.S. AND EARLY SEASON SUCCESS IN MLB

History tells us that at the end of any MLB Season, over the course of 162 game schedule, 24 to 26 teams will gravitate to playing .400 to .600 baseball.  Call it parity, the random bounce of the ball, or anything you’d like.  It is an historical fact.  This is more true in MLB than in any other sport.

As a result, early season win/loss percentages can often appear skewed based on a team’s projected number of victories for the season.  The reason for this can often be attributed to a team’s S.O.S. (strength of schedule).  Consider that, after two weeks of the season, the following facts are true.

  • 73-102  The combined record of the 14 MLB teams who played the most difficult schedule.
  • 112-83  The combined record of the teams who played the 16 easiest schedules.

Admittedly, those are back-fitted numbers which are difficult to project before the season begins.  The real question is how can we use them to our benefit going forward?  For that we turn to looking at our OPS selections.  In theory, these plays should be strengthened if our PLAY ON team has faced a comparatively more difficult schedule while their opponent has faced a relatively weak schedule.  Here is an example from this weekends matchups.  Consider the case of San Francisco visiting Miami this weekend.

At 8-4, the Giants have the 3rd best record in the league.  Consider that may well be due in part to the #23 ranked schedule.  Also consider that their #8 rank OPS is 5 positions below that #3 W/L rank indicating a PLAY AGAINST team.  In the other dugout is a Miami team whose 5-7 record is good for just the #21-23 W/L rank.  That however, has been compiled against the 5th hardest SOS.  With the Marlins holding the #11 OPS rank (10 positions better than their W/L rank), it all fits nicely into the puzzle of solving the outcome of this week’s series matchup against the visiting Giants.  Other series where similar matchup advantages exist are with Atlanta vs. the Cubs, Washington vs. Arizona, NYY vs. Tampa Bay, Toronto vs. KC.  We will know in 72 hours how well this theory prevailed.

______________________________________________

MLB…THIS IS HOW WE DO IT!

With the advent of the 2002 movie “Money Ball”, sabermetric handicapping has become a major part of a handicapper’s analysis when betting the bases.  Since that time, I used just about every metric available in search of a methodology which would provide consistent winners.  In the final analysis, I emerged with my “OPS Theory of MLB Handicapping”.

This OPS Theory, simplified, is the sum of a team’s OPS batting, plus the inverse to 1.000, of a team’s pitching.  After ranking these numbers for each team from 1-30, I then compare it to the W/L rank of each MLB team.  When there is a difference of 5 or more positions, we have a play. That is to say, a PLAY ON a team if their OPS rank is 5 points superior to their W/L rank, and PLAY AGAINST a team if their OPS rank is 5 points inferior to their W/L rank.  As a subjective opinion, I compare the bullpen OPS rank of each team.

In OPS, a walk counts one for on-base and zero for slugging, while any hit counts one for on base and the number of bases for slugging.  So counting both OBA and SLG, a single counts 2 and a homer 5.  These are in about the same proportion as in linear weights.  That is why OPS works almost as well.

I perform the operation of OPS rankings every Monday and Thursday morning prior to the start of each new series.  That is why you often see the same teams on the selection sheet in consecutive days.  When plays are mutually exclusive, I immediately exclude them from consideration.  In addition, I break down the plays into 4 distinct classifications.

ON home teams

ON away teams

AGAINST home teams

AGAINST away teams

What about pitching?  Of course it is important!  But starting pitching is accurately reflected in the line, my OPS Model includes pitching, and the Bullpen OPS is now worth 33% of the pitching handicap.

As a further consideration, I EXCLUDE money line plays where the line is more than 1.50.  Games where the line is more than 1.50 are included as run line selections only when my run line chart, which I update daily, shows that a PLAY ON or PLAY AGAINST team qualifies in an over 80% situation.

RUN LINE WINNERS

Dating to 2010, I have tracked the result of every MLB game, home and away, by margin of victory of 2 runs or more.  With 9 years of data in the rear view mirror, there is one salient conclusion that can be made:

MLB TEAMS WIN THE GAME BY 2 OR MORE RUNS 74% OF THE TIME

Because the home team does not bat in the bottom of the 9th if leading, and the road team is always looking to secure as large a lead after batting in their half of the 9th inning, the 9 year average shows road teams to win a game by 2 or more runs 74% of the time while home teams win a game by 2 or more runs, 68% of the time.

In 2019, however, these Run line results increased to 71% for home and 77% for away teams, or a combined result of 74% that the winning score is 2 or more runs.

The question often asked is to how I use this run line data.  I first handicap the contest with a basis of the handicapping being my OPS rankings (see separate article on this site), I then check the betting line and my MLB 80% team trends to see if I can turn a favored team into an underdog price.  When that happens, I feel comfortable making it a run line play.

The explanation of this model may seem a bit intricate as described above.  I assure you however, that the OPS indicator is the best metric I have found for isolating MLB winners.  Combined with my unique and proprietary run line methods, this analysis provides a healthy profit in an MLB Season.  You can do these many hours of work yourself each day of the week, or you can follow my conclusions for as little as $5/day by signing up at joegavazzisports.com/SHOP