Joe Gavazzi’s 2018 Football POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS

 Since the early 1980’s, I have authored a weekly analysis of CFB & NFL games.  It first appeared as “The Midweek Moneymaker”.  The column subsequently appeared in Marc Lawrence’s Playbook Newsletter for whom I was the lead handicapper from the middle 80’s to middle 90’s.  Following my time with Playbook, the column appeared in the Power Plays Newsletter published by Steve Turner.  In recent seasons, the work has reverted to its original format and appears under today’s title of Pointspread Prognosis.

Last season, The Pointspread Prognosis featured 14 CFB and 6 NFL games.  In the previous 4 seasons, The Pointspread record for the CFB games was an astounding

407-295 ATS…  +182 Net Winners

A $100 bettor made $18,200… how much will you win this year?

In order to select exactly 14 games, it was necessary to review many more options.  Week in and week out, I found that I consistently left out more winners than losers.  This year, there will be

NO MORE MONEY LEFT ON THE TABLE!

For along with the 6 NFL games, there will now be 20 CFB games each week all fully analyzed.  In other words, there will be…

EVEN MORE PROFIT!

Only you know how you can best utilize The Pointspread Prognosis.  Maybe you want to “pony up” and spread your money over every game.  Most will be televised.  Perhaps you will want to zero in on just some of your favorite named games as described below.  Or maybe you want to use my opinions to reinforce your own, or keep you OFF a game you LOVE.

I have saved the best for last

This year for the first time ever

5 CFB Best Bets and 3 NFL Best Bets each week

It is EVERYTHING you need through the Super Bowl

Below is a description of the 20 CFB “Named Games” that will be offered in 2018 in CFB.  Which one is your favorite?

First issue released Wednesday, August 29th

Cost:    $460 thru Super Bowl … less than $1 per game

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THE 20 WEEKLY COLLEGE FOOTBALL “NAMED GAMES” OF

JOE GAVAZZI’S CFB POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS

STEAMROLLER OF THE WEEK…

Entering its 30th year, this is a selection in which I isolate our team’s (usually a favorite) dominance over their opponent at the point of attack.  I use the respective team’s statistics of rushing and yards/rush to make my point in a game that has cashed nearly 60% of the time since its inception on these pages.

CRUSHER OF THE WEEK…

Much like the Steamroller above, this is almost always a favorite play.  Along with statistical support, my preferred team may also be motivated by a “reason to play” (revenge, bounceback or opponent letdown) creating a situational advantage.

 

IF IT AIN’T BROKE…

This is the momentum play of the week in which I use current form of each team to suggest that the momentum of both teams will continue.  It is normally backed by a blend of additional reasoning, including fundamental or technical support.

 

CHEAP THRILLS…

This is the 4th of what is normally a favorite play in the Pointspread Prognosis each week.  Due to a number of converging factors, I believe it is a contest in which one team’s fans will be getting their “cheap thrills” (on the scoreboard and in the ATS column) as their favorite eleven runs up the score on an outmanned foe.

 

FAUX OR FO’ REAL…

Each week, the handicapper is faced with the conundrum of whether a team will repeat its outstanding performance of last week (GOOD OR BAD) and play to the same form of last week (FO’ REAL).  Or was last week’s performance not truly representative (FAUX) of the team who will show up this week. This is a major test of a handicappers ability to analyze a team’s mental and emotional state, and one I often pass with flying colors.

 

ICE…

Every week in the season, we can watch a game in which one team comes out smokin’ hot and puts away their opponent in the first half.  I call this an ICE game as the dominant team is playing with Intensity, Conviction and Execution.  For whatever reason, maybe because they are playing with revenge, or are off an embarrassing loss, this team has come to play.  It is my job to tell you who that team is.

 

RIVALRY GAME/FORTRESS GAME…

With 130 teams on line, there is always one game each week that will either match a pair of fierce rivals, OR FIND AN INFERIOR TEAM playing to defend their turf on their strong home field. You will read about it and profit from it.

 

PERCEPTION/REALITY…

This winner normally comes from the stat sheet of last week or the recent weeks of play.  It is a game where one team is off a win (S) or loss (ES) in which the stats simply do not accurately reflect the outcome of the game. In other words, the public’s perception, as reflected in the linemakers send out, is quite opposite from the reality of the team’s performance.  We profit from the attendant value.

 

THE LONE RANGER…

This is the contrary play of the week.  Normally an underdog, it features a team that no one wants to play on, or against a team with whom the public has fallen in love.  In reality, the inferior team is due for a bounce back.  Or the superior team is due for a letdown.  In short, it is the reverse of a momentum play.  We step in and grab the value with a selection on a game in which upsets are often the norm.

 

UNDER THE RADAR…

There are now 130 on line teams in CFB.  Meaning at least 50 on line games each week!  With the betting public and linemaker focusing on the games from the major conferences, there is always at least one game that flies “under the radar” from the public’s perception.  That is when I step in for a game whose winner pays off just as much as if it were a Top 10 team.

 

HIDDEN GEM…

Not unlike the “Under the Radar” game above, this is normally a game which isolates a team whose results in the  ATS column have not been representative of how well or how poorly they have been playing in the stats.  When these games show up on the schedule, there is almost always plenty of value for this side who will have little interest from the public.

 

PUPPY OF THE WEEK…

Each week I isolate a small underdog who I believe to be the better team or perhaps who has a huge situational advantage.  These underdogs have a history of stealing the money and often times win this game outright.  Since you have read my analysis, you are aware this is not really an upset.

 

BIG DOG OF THE WEEK…

Every week I select an underdog from the CFB card of more than 7 points.  I may become alerted to it by a statistical advantage such as a superior defense.  Or maybe it’s an edge in the running game at the point of attack.  Often it would be in conjunction with a bounceback or letdown situation for one or both teams.  Regardless of the factors involved, it is more often than not a winner.  Do not ignore this play because you “love” the favorite.

 

PENTHOUSE PICK…

The Penthouse Pick is a reflection to the past when the games were released from the Penthouse offices, the highest point in what is now the trendy East End of Pittsburgh.  Annually, the selections are as lofty as the altitude from which they are released.

 

NEW ADDITIONS TO THE POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS IN 2018

 

REVENGE GAME OF THE WEEK…

This is the most requested new addition.  The title speaks for itself.  What you need to know is that revenge is not only about the motivation of the avenging team but also about the complacency of the team who won the previous meeting between these opponents.

 

WTF GAME OF THE WEEK…

Embedded in each week’s card are several games in which the linemaker has erred. I call this the WTF game for Wrong Team Favored.  In the game description, I may mention why the linemaker has made this intentional (or unintentional error) and why I believe the underdog will indeed win the game.

 

KICK ASS FAVORITE…

It is apparent from the customer feedback that my subscribers love it when I offer a game description that is a blowout winner.  Such is the case of the above described games entitled The Steamroller, The Crusher, If It Ain’t Broke and Cheap Thrills.  I believe this will quickly become one of the most popular games this week and provide us 60% or more winners.

 

FELINE FEATURE OF THE WEEK…

The Feline Feature returns this season following a hiatus of several years.  It is so named because it features a CFB team with a Feline nickname.  Don’t be surprised if I find one of these “Hot Cats” and ride it’s winning streak.

 

DOUBLE RUSHER OF THE WEEK…

Most of you are familiar with my statistical bent as the basis for my fundamental handicapping of a CFB game.  Since the year 2000, I have tracked the rushing statistics of every CFB game.  The bottom line is that, on a consistent basis, when one team outrushes their opponent by a margin of 2 to 1 or better, regardless of the pointspread, they cover the pointspread 75% of the time.  Much like other favorites in the PSP, you will look forward to this blowout winner each and every week.

 

THE 200 CLUB…

Much like the Double Rusher above, this selection has a statistical orientation that has resulted in a consistent 75% winning tradition.  In this case, however, we look for explosive offensive balance to carry the day for it has been a tried and true fact that since the year 2000 when our team both runs and passes for 200 or more yards, and their opponent does not, that they cover the contest 75% of the time.

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