April 2018 MLB Run Line Recap
by Joe Gavazzi Winning Sports Advice
Faithful followers are well aware of my proprietary MLB run line method. Since 2010, I have tracked the margin of victory of each MLB team home and away. Over the course of time, I have determined that WHEN AN MLB TEAM WINS A GAME, THEY DO SO BY 2 OR MORE RUNS 70% OF THE TIME. This year, in the month of April, of the 447 games, 300 of them (71.9%) were decided by 2 or more runs.
Road teams have historically won about 5 to 6% more of their games by 2 or more runs than home teams due to the fact that home teams do not bat in the bottom of the 9th if they are leading the game. In addition, understanding that, away teams often look to build a lead in the top of the 9th while home teams play for the 1 run win. Unlike previous seasons, each home and road teams are winning the game by 2 or more runs 72% of the time. I find this a bit unusual as it has been a rare losing month for home teams who finished April with a record of 207-210.
This year, I will repeat the methodology that I have employed in using each teams’ numbers to handicap the run line games. I use my normal handicapping methods (see today’s article on OPS) to fundamentally handicap the game. Then I refer to the run line records of each team. If they are 80% or better, I consider the run line option!
Below is a list of each team who has an 80% run line category (minimum 10 games) worth considering.
Philadelphia… 11 of 12 losses by 2 or more runs
Atlanta… 13 of 16 wins AND 9 of 11 losses by 2 or more runs
Miami… 8 of 10 wins by 2 or more runs
Colorado… 12 of 15 losses by 2 or more runs
San Diego… 17 of 20 losses by 2 or more runs
Baltimore… 17 of 20 losses by 2 or more runs
Toronto… 13 of 16 wins by 2 or more runs
Kansas City… 10 of 12 home losses by 2 or more runs
LA Angels… 8 of 10 home losses by 2 or more runs
Texas… 10 of 11 wins AND 17 of 19 losses by 2 or more runs
Oakland… 13 of 14 losses by 2 or more runs
Houston… 9 of 10 away wins by 2 or more runs
These numbers create a solid beginning base for what may evolve to be meaningful trends throughout the season. Due to the relatively sample size however, they need to be used prudently and in combination with the methodology described in my OPS handicapping articles.