2017 OPS as the Superior Indicator 

2017 OPS as the Superior Indicator 

By Joe Gavazzi 

Winning Sports Advice 

Joegavazzisports.com 

In the last 4 MLB seasons I have authored numerous articles on the Sabermetric Indices that most accurately reflect a team’s W/L record. After numerous efforts and use of multiple indicators, I came to the clear conclusion that OPS is the best indicator of MLB success. That is true of both batting, pitching, and overall team success. To once again verify that was the case in 2017, I am presenting the final pitching and batting ratings of each team with my unique rating system. Just to refresh your memory, OPS is the joint measure of a team’s OBP (On Base %) and SLG (Slugging %).

Before getting to the chart and the conclusions I would like to relay other off-season work I did in MLB regarding the OPS Plus. OPS Plus takes into account other variables, such as home/road dichotomies, then translates them into a power rating index where the average is approximately 100. Eager to check its merits I put it to the usual test against the OPS ratings. The OPS Plus measurements failed miserably. Only 11 of the ranking numbers came within 5 position ranks of the W/L rank of the 30 MLB teams. 16 of them, more than half, fell 8 or more positions away from the true W/L rank. I strongly advice against using these OPS Plus ratings for handicapping purposes.

Returning to our check of our 2017 OPS ratings for 2017 I present the chart below. All teams are ranked from top to bottom with their year to date W/L records ranked from 1 to 30. In the next column I present a team’s batting OPS, this is followed by a pitching OPS which includes both starters and relief pitchers. BECAUSE A LOWER OPS IS BETTER FOR PITCHERS I then invert that number so that the better numbers are represented by the better rank. I then add the batting ops plus the inverted pitching ops with the sum of that ops in a separate column I rank it from 1 to 30. By comparing that rank with the year to date W/L rank (in the third column of the chart) I can see which teams most accurately performed to their OPS levels last year as well as judging the overall efficiency of the OPS.

Team 2017 W/ 2017 Rank Batting OPS Pitching OPS Inverted Pitching OPS Sum OPS Rank of SUM Rank Diff      
Dodgers 104-158 1 771 671 329 1100 4 -3
Indians 102-60 2 788 673 327 1115 1 +1
Astros 101-61 3 823 720 280 1103 3 0
Nationals 97-65 4 782 703 297 1079 5 -1
Red Sox 93-69 5 736 712 288 1024 10 -5
Diamondbacks 93-69 6 774 707 293 1067 6 0
Cubs 92-70 7 775 713 287 1062 7 0
Yankees 91-71 8 785 680 320 1115 2 -6
Rockies 87-75 9 781 771 229 1010 11 -2
Brewers 86-76 10 751 741 259 1010 12 -2
Twins 85-77 11 768 776 224 992 14 -3
Cardinals 83-79 12 760 731 269 1029 8 +4
Angels 80-82 13 712 744 256 968 18 -5
Devil Rays 80-82 14 739 711 289 1028 9 +5
Royals 80-82 15 731 765 235 966 20 -5
Mariners 78-84 16 749 754 246 995 13 +3
Rangers 78-84 17 750 769 231 981 17 0
Marlins 77-85 18 761 776 224 985 16 +2
Blue Jays 76-86 19 724 756 244 968 19 0
Athletics 75-87 20 755 765 235 990 15 +5
Pirates 75-87 21 704 761 239 943 26 -5
Orioles 75-87 22 747 799 201 948 21 +2
Braves 72-90 23 738 777 223 961 21 +2
Padres 71-91 24 692 775 225 917 30 -6
Mets 70-92 25 755 794 206 961 22 +3
Reds 68-94 26 761 810 190 951 23 +3
White Sox 67-95 27 731 787 213 944 25 +2
Phillies 66-96 28 723 780 220 943 27 +1
Giants 64-98 29 689 768 232 921 29 0
Tigers 64-98 30 748 811 189 937 28 +2

Success

It is not surprising to me that my method of using OPS ratings has again proven to be an outstanding success in the 2017 season. 14 OF THE 30 TEAMS RANK DIF FELL WITHIN 2 POSITIONS OF THEIR FINAL W/L RANK. AND NO RANK DIFF WAS FURTHER THAN 6 POSITIONS FROM THEIR FINAL 2017 W/L RANK.

Beginning May 1st I will begin to use these OPS numbers as a way to predict a team’s future success or failure. Stay tuned for these periodic articles which have led to huge success in recent seasons.

Posted in: MLB

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