RIDING THE VALUE TRAIN IN OCTOBER

“RIDING THE VALUE TRAIN IN OCTOBER”

By Joe Gavazzi

My ole handicapping buddy, Roger Larson, has given me some great contrary handicapping advice over the years.  I have used his line of thinking to quantify ways in which we can use the contrary theories to isolate line value.  The beauty that follows works like a charm in the month of October.  To make it work, we need 5 or more weeks to make the public, and linemaker, believe our contrary teams are headed for a truly bad season.  And we can only use it BEFORE THESE TEAMS BEGIN TO “TOSS THE TOWEL” IN EARLY NOVEMBER.  THAT MAKES IT PERFECTLY SUITED, THIS YEAR, FOR THE 4 WEEKS PLAYED IN THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.  Below I will outline the parameters needed for both the PLAY ON and PLAY AGAINST team.  I will follow it with the teams who qualify in this ultimate contrary role each week.

IN GAME #6 THROUGH GAME #9 OF A CFB SEASON, PLAY ON ANY TEAM WHO IS

  • 3 games or more below .500 ATS
  • Has 6 or fewer SU losses for the YTD (not a “Towel Tosser”)
  • Have won or more SU AND ATS wins for the YTD
  • Lost BOTH SU AND ATS in their previous game

IF OUR PLAY AGAINST TEAM IS

  • Greater than or equal to .500 ATS
  • Has a positive AFP for the YTD
  • Is off a SU OR ATS win in their previous game

This week’s qualifying teams with their pertinent information.

  • Pittsburgh (+6)… 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS, -57 AFP, 11 points value from Wk #1
  • Miami (OH) (+4-)… 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS, -33 AFP, 5 points value from Wk #1
  • Colorado State (-3)… 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS, -67 AFP, 14 points value from Wk #1

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