“RIDING THE VALUE TRAIN IN OCTOBER”
By Joe Gavazzi
My ole handicapping buddy, Roger Larson, has given me some great contrary handicapping advice over the years. I have used his line of thinking to quantify ways in which we can use the contrary theories to isolate line value. The beauty that follows works like a charm in the month of October. To make it work, we need 5 or more weeks to make the public, and linemaker, believe our contrary teams are headed for a truly bad season. And we can only use it BEFORE THESE TEAMS BEGIN TO “TOSS THE TOWEL” IN EARLY NOVEMBER. THAT MAKES IT PERFECTLY SUITED, THIS YEAR, FOR THE 4 WEEKS PLAYED IN THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. Below I will outline the parameters needed for both the PLAY ON and PLAY AGAINST team. I will follow it with the teams who qualify in this ultimate contrary role each week.
IN GAME #6 THROUGH GAME #9 OF A CFB SEASON, PLAY ON ANY TEAM WHO IS
- 3 games or more below .500 ATS
- Has 6 or fewer SU losses for the YTD (not a “Towel Tosser”)
- Have won or more SU AND ATS wins for the YTD
- Lost BOTH SU AND ATS in their previous game
IF OUR PLAY AGAINST TEAM IS
- Greater than or equal to .500 ATS
- Has a positive AFP for the YTD
- Is off a SU OR ATS win in their previous game
This week’s qualifying teams with their pertinent information.
- Pittsburgh (+6)… 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS, -57 AFP, 11 points value from Wk #1
- Miami (OH) (+4-)… 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS, -33 AFP, 5 points value from Wk #1
- Colorado State (-3)… 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS, -67 AFP, 14 points value from Wk #1