The concept of “Towel Tossers” is one I have successfully used for years in the 5 sports I handicap. Those are College ad NFL Football, College and NBA Basketball and MLB. The basic idea is very simple: there comes a point in the season, when a team’s hopes for post-season play dim to the realization that they will not be invited to a post-season party. It is at this point in time, before the line becomes over-adjusted, that we can look to PLAY AGAINST THESE TOWEL TOSSERS, WHO ARE LINING UP WITH NEGATIVE MOMENTUM. This Article deals specifically with College Football. Let’s take a look at how it plays out in that sport.
As we enter the 9th Week of the 12-game College Football (regular season) most of the teams have played 7 or 8 games. They have had a chance to compare themselves to a slate of non-conference opponents in September, followed by 3 or 4 weeks of conference action against teams they play each season. In short, the reality has set in, as to where they stand in relationship to the other 129 college football teams on the betting line, as well as within their own conference.
The college football post-season is unique in that the NCAA has set a standard of a minimum of 6 wins (with a few exceptions) in the 12-game regular season, if you are going to be included in the post-season party, known as the “College Football Bowl Season.” At this point in the season, if a team has already suffered their 6th defeat and is playing with negative momentum, they have come to the realization that a post-season party invitation is likely not going to be forthcoming. THIS IS THE TIME WHEN A TEAM BECOMES A CFB TOWEL-TOSSER. Exceptions to this rule come in the month of November, when a team plays a rivalry game as underdog. For, that rivalry meeting becomes THEIR BOWL GAME! For those of you who are looking to define this play in more specific parameters, try using the following:
PLAY AGAINST ANY CFB TOWEL TOSSER, WHO ENTERS TODAY’S CONTEST WITH 6 OR MORE LOSSES, HAS LOST EACH OF THEIR LAST 2 GAMES, AND IS NOT PLAYING THEIR RIVALRY GAME OF THE YEAR AS UNDERDOG.
As is the case in all handicapping, I advise you to FADE these Towel Tossers, only after you have done your statistical, situational and technical handicapping that uncovers additional reasons to PLAY AGAINST them. One further note, as a general rule, it is best to limit the line on these games to 21 points and to always look for any remaining value in the betting line.
Check my game analyses on this site for examples of games, in which I am looking to FADE a Towel-Tosser this weekend.
At the other end of the spectrum, we look to isolate teams who are SUPER SURGING IN THE EARLY PART OF NOVEMBER, as they vie for a Bowl bid.
Please note, these are NOT teams who are playing for a position in the CFB Championship. Nor are these teams, who are vying for their conference lead and BEST BOWL BID. These are the type of teams, who are overrated on a weekly basis. Rather than backing these continually overpriced public teams, we look to favor the value laden 5-win teams, who are seeking that valuable 6th win, which makes them eligible for a Bowl.
That 6th win and Bowl eligibility may seem meaningless to many considering it is often a minor Bowl bid. But, the reality is that Bowl eligibility means an average of 2-weeks extra practice, as well as the money that fills the coffers of a school’s athletic department. As a result, 6 wins is a big deal! In a way similar to Towel Tossers, we look to use positive momentum along with the urgency of win number 6 to isolate this year’s SUPER SURGERS using the following theory.
PLAY ON ANY FIVE-WIN TEAM, WHO IS COMING OFF A VICTORY IN THEIR PREVIOUS GAME.
The basis of the theory is as simple as that. As I pointed out in Towel Tossers (above), any single premise is simply not enough reason to make your investment. It must be reinforced by fundamental, statistical, situational and technical reasons other than this single entity. Nonetheless, it is noted that this single premise often provides great value as the calendar turns to November each year!