THIS IS HOW WE DO IT! “The Killer Bees” “RS” “New Coaches, No Practices

THIS IS HOW WE DO IT

By Joe Gavazzi

Each week in this space, I will author a handicapping article entitled “This is How We Do It”.  It will give you a glimpse into the type of information that is essential to the handicapping process in College and NFL Football.  To begin the 2020 Season, I include 3 articles below whose lists should be of great importance to you as you approach the upcoming season.

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THE KILLER BEES OF 2020 COLLEGE FB 

Each year, I isolate the CFB teams who are due to BOUNCE BACK BIG, after being highly successful in recent seasons.  The reasons may vary from an injury plagued season, to a lack of experience, or a change in the coaching staff.  The parameters for our list are relatively simple.  Our 2020 team must come off a season in which they had 6 or fewer wins and no Bowl invitation, preceded by 3 or more Bowl Seasons.  Thanks to the hard work that goes into the preparation of the Marc Lawrence Playbook and the Phil Steele College FB Review (the two best Football Annuals on the market), I have included their experience numbers in the last two columns of the chart below.  Teams are listed in reverse alpha order… because that’s the way I do it!  The average of the career OL starts for a team is 65.  Overall sample size for this list comes from the 76 teams who are scheduled to play the 2020 Season.

  COACH   RETURNING STARTERS 2019       PLAYBK STEELE
TEAM NAME YRS OFF QB OL STARTS DEF ALL SU ATS FINISH 2018 2017 2016 EXP EXP
WVU Brown 1 8 Y 37 5 13 5-7 5-6 2-6 SU 8-4 7-6 10-3 66 71
USF Scott 0 7 Y 64 7 14 4-8 5-6 0-4 SU 7-6 10-2 11-2 36 37
TROY Lindsey 1 7 N 40 6 13 5-7 4-7 0-2 SU 10-3 11-2 10-3 80 109
TCU Patterson 19 5 Y 56 7 12 5-7 4-7 2-6 SA 7-6 11-3 6-7 64 85
S. CAR Muschamp 4 7 Y 73 6 13 4-8 4-7 1-5 SA 7-6 9-4 6-7 32 80
NC ST Doeren 7 10 Y 62 5 15 4-8 2-9 0-6 SA 9-4 9-4 7-6 23 54
MID TENN Stockstill 14 9 Y 47 5 14 4-8 6-5 1-1  SU 8-6 7-6 8-5 54 73
HOUSTON Holgorsen 1 10 Y 71 9 19 4-8 6-5 1-4 SU 8-5 7-5 9-4 3 4
ARMY Monken 6 6 N 55 6 12 5-8 4-7 2-7 SA 11-2 10-3 8-5 102 96

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EXPERIENCE LIST BY RETURNING STARTERS 

There have been many methods used to judge the experience of a College Football team to begin the new season.  The list presented below is one that features very condensed, yet very effective, parameters that have a great history of success when used throughout the CFB Season.  There are only 5 parameters to this list.  Our team must have 4 or more victories the previous season, have 7 or more offensive starters, 7 or more defensive starters, as well as a returning quarterback and coach.  For your reference, I have included other information in the chart below including the all-important OL career starts number (the average is 65) along with information regarding the experience of a team’s OC and DC.  Finally, as a further way to judge experience, thanks to the hard work that goes into the preparation of the Marc Lawrence Playbook and the Phil Steele College Football Review, I have included their experience numbers as well.  There is no significance to the order in which the teams are listed.

TEAM COACH YRS LY SU OFF OL STARTS DEF ALL OC DC PLAYBK STEELE
OOH-LA-LA Napier 2 11-3 7 101 7 14 3 0 55 13
UAB Clark 4 9-5 9 61 9 18 2 3 8 3
HOUSTON Holgorsen 1 4-8 10 71 9 19 0 1 3 4
UCF Heupel 2 10-3 8 62 8 16 0 2 38 18
BYU Sitake 4 7-6 8 110 7 15 2 4 43 15
OKL ST Gundy 15 8-5 7 71 10 17 0 2 9 11
TEXAS Herman 3 8-5 7 71 9 16 0 0 21 34
PITT Narduzzi 5 8-5 8 85 7 15 1 2 48 27
V TECH Fuente 4 8-5 8 115 10 18 3 0 6 5
NC Brown 1 7-6 10 62 7 17 1 1 18 30
L’VILLE Satterfield 1 8-5 8 99 8 16 1 1 13 8
KENTUCKY Stoops 7 8-5 8 84 7 15 4 1 25 39
TENN Pruitt 2 8-5 9 115 8 17 1 1 50 12
TEX A&M Fisher 2 8-5 8 106 9 17 2 2 16 10

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NEW COACHES … NO SPRING PRACTICES

We can all agree that the year 2020 has presented a unique set of challenges to each of us as we battle our way through the crises of COVID and unemployment.  We are fortunate however, that at this time, 76 of the 130 teams who are normally on the betting line, are scheduled to play at least 10 games for the 2020 Season.  Six of these teams feature new coaches, who because of COVID, were not afforded any spring practices.  If you are as curious as I am, you will be eager to check these teams early progress as they look to travel their way through muddy waters.

 

Below is a list of those 6 teams, their coaches, and other prevalent information which may impact their early season performance.

 

TEAM COACH 2019 SU 2019 ATS R STARTERS % R LETTERMEN
Ole Miss Lane Kiffin 4-8 8-4 13 75%
Arkansas Sam Pittman 2-10 5-7 14 65%
Miss. State Mike Leach 6-7 4-9 11 61%
Baylor Dave Aranda 11-3 9-5 9 68%
UTSA Jeff Traylor 4-8 7-5 13 71%
Florida Atlantic Willy Taggart 11-3 10-3 9 44%

 

 

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