CFB Saturday Sep 19th

College Football Selections

Saturday, September 19th

 

Remember to go to joegavazzisports.com to read the Guest Handicappers Selections for this week as well as their Biographies. 

 

College Football Selections

Saturday, September 19th

 Remember to go to joegavazzisports.com to read the Guest Handicappers Selections for this week as well as their Biographies. 

 Next Transmission Monday, Sept 21st  2:00 PM ET

 

#106  5% GEORGIA SOUTHERN  (-2-)  3:30 PM ET ESPN

 What a horrible opening week it will be for Florida Atlantic’s new HC Taggart.  But what?  He worry?  After busting out at Oregon and FSU he got a $28 million dollar buyout and, amazingly, another Head Coaching job.  Expect this to be ugly for the Owls.  Off an 11-3 SU, 10-3 ATS season of last, former HC Kiffin bolted for Ole Miss.  He leaves Taggart with 44% returning lettermen, 9 returning starters, in a spring where the Owls had 0 spring practices.  Flying the coup are last year’s star QB Robison and his top 3 wideouts.  Yet this line stays intact from where it would have been opening day (despite a 7 point move on the Eagles) because of the events of Week #1.  Georgia Southern listed no fewer than 33 players on the IL including 10 starters last week.  This week, it is FAU who has the COVID issues, cancelling Tuesday’s practice because of such.  In any event, G.S. managed to escape with a Week #1 27-26 victory (as -30) over the Campbell Camels after being down 20-6.  One of the most experienced offensive teams in the nation is led by QB Werts and his RB duo of Kennedy and King running behind 4 OL who return.  COVID always an issue but this looks like a romp.

 

#109  3%  UCF  (-7-)  3:30 PM ET ABC

Let me start by telling you that at the close of last year 10-3 SU UCF would have been favored by 18 points over 3-9 SU Georgia Tech.  Granted, the GUB edge for Tech was a most promising performance by Frosh QB Simms who passed for 277 yards against FSU in their 16-13 upset (as +12) of the Noles.  That included forcing 3 TOs.  For our purposes however, that sets up a classic “Blind Hog” play.  The concept is simple.  “Play against any CFB home dog who comes off a double digit victory as road dog (blind hog finding an acorn)”.  The letdown is inevitable, as is line value, and the fact the superior road team is now on high alert.  Note that UCF, though playing their opener, will need much motivation.  76% of their lettermen return with 16 starters, 8 on each side of the ball, that includes LYs QB Gabrielle who had a 29/7 ratio LY. They also return Top 3 RBs and their entire secondary.  A nationally televised game against an ACC opponent on ABC TV will certainly have the Golden Knights looking for style points.  Note that GA Tech was 0-3 ATS/win LY.

 

#114  4% Duke (-5-)  Noon PM ET ES3

 New BC Hafley (former Ohio State Assistant) and Notre Dame transfer QB Jurkovec will have to prove it before they get our action.  That’s exactly what Duke’s Clemson transfer QB Brice did in the Blue Devils 27-13 loss at Notre Dame last week, including 246 yards of offense by half time.  Note that the Blue Devils trailed only 13-17 in the 4th quarter.  After that game, Duke HC Cutcliffe gushed “we’ve got a quarterback that will make a lot of plays for us.  I think we’ve got an exciting time in front of us.  I really do.”  Good enough for us.

 

#116  3% Louisville (-2-)  7:30 PM ET

 Louisville is the “Revenge Game of the Week”.  Expect close to 20,000 fans in the stands for this Saturday night prime time game.  They will be rooting for their Cardinals to avenge a 52-27 loss last year at Miami.  The Canes defense looked tough in their opening day 31-14 win and cover against CUSA member, UAB.  Houston transfer QB King provided balance with his legs and speed.  There were clearly however, some kinks to be worked out of the new “spread offense” installed by OC Lashlee.  It resulted in just a 10-24 performance through the air for QB King.  Meanwhile, behind 343 PY from QB Cunningham last week (knocked out of Miami game LY), the Cards cruised to a 35-21 home win and cover vs. WKY.  That boosted the recent record to Cards mentor HC Satterfield to 17-8 ATS going back to his days at APP State.  Cards (from last year) get their revenge!

 

#121  3% App State (-4-)  3:30 PM ET CBSN

 Don’t get too excited about the 59-0 Marshall win over E. KY two weeks ago.  The Colonels got nothin’.  To their credit, the Herd does return 9 offensive starters including an OL with 126 starts.  BUT THEY HAD 0 SPRING PRACTICES making this in effect their first real “fire”.  App State with their 3rd HC in 3 years (HC Clark a long time App State Assistant), was same ol’, same ol’ Mountaineers.  The 35-20 win, no cover, vs. Charlotte was not reflected in the stats.  App State “200 Clubbed” (as usual) the Niners with a 308-146 overland edge.  The Niners stayed in the game with the benefit of 3 TOs and 97 yard KO return.  With 11 spring practices under their belt, 8 offensive returning starters led by QB Thomas, and 115 OL starts, expect this team of 79% returning lettermen to make a statement against the biggest name non-con team on their schedule.  Great value here based on the fact that App State would have been a double digit favorite at the close of last season.

 

#124  3%  WESTERN KY (-14)  Noon ET ESPNU

 In 1775, great historian Patrick Henry said “Give me liberty, or give me death”.  In today’s matchup,  Henry was undoubtedly referring to the latter, as the Flames figure to quickly extinguish in their season opener.  Only 9 starters return in the 2nd season under HC Freeze.  Gone is QB “Buckshot”, his top wide receiver, and top 3 tacklers from a defense that allowed 28 PPG LY.  Only untried Auburn transfer QB Willis (red shirted last year, making his first start on the road) could save the day.  The WKY has a GUB in a 21-35 loss at L’Ville. They will enjoy stepping down in class.  Buoying their offensive hopes are Maryland transfer QB Pigrome, an OL with 102 career starts, and 9 returning starters and a defense that allowed 20 PPG LY.  2nd year HC Helton had a first year well beyond expectations with a 9-4 SU, 9-3 ATS record.  Willing to lay the extra TD (from LYs closing line). Note the Tops were 3-1 ATS/loss LY.

 

#133  4% Navy (+7) Noon ABC

If you think there are plenty of reasons to fade Navy after their 55-3 wipe out at the hands of BYU, consider the plight of Tulane. Ravaged this week by the remnants of Hurricane Sally, the Green Wave must also deal with the potential letdown following their 27-24 victory at USA last week.  After trailing 6-24, the Wave rallied for 3 scores in a 27-24 comeback victory.  Despite success overland vs. the inferior front of USA, note that Tulane will miss best boy RB Dauphine.  This series has been a tight one with all 4 recent AAC games decided by 7 or less points.  Though 3-1 ATS in the series, Tulane is 1-3 SU and the homer 0-5 ATS in the series.  Following the BYU debacle, Navy HC Niumatalolo said “1000% my fault.  It was the worst game ever by Navy”.  With QB Olsen entering the transfer portal, the fortunes remain in the hands of QB Morris.  I expect a huge bounce back by the Middies who are 7-3 ATS/loss L2Y and have a storied history in this role where they are 20-12 ATS as underdog.  After being outrushed 301-119 by BYU, look for the Middies to return more to the form that saw them ramble for 385 RY in last year’s game, a 41-38 Navy victory.  Due to the dichotomous performance of these teams in Game #1, we are grabbing 10 points of value from where this line would have been at the close of last season as our Dog of the Day.  Be there!

 

#143  4%  Houston  (+4-)  Noon ET Fox TV

Not only does Houston return 19 starters, but has some transfers and Jucos which could surprise.  In short, after 2nd year HC Holgorsen recorded a 4-8 SU maiden voyage, expect much better from a team with 82% returning lettermen including QB Tune and his Top 5 receivers.  No such luck for Baylor’s new HC Aranda (former DC at LSU, Wisc.) whose team had no spring practices, returns only 9 starters, including just 2 on the defensive side of the ball.  Technicians will note the record of 11-2 ATS for Houston as road dog and 3-8 ATS for Baylor in the home chalk role (though few of these results were with current coaches).  New coaches (Aranda) in their first game of the season are 2-8 ATS to date.  Teams with 5 more spring practices than their opponent in Game #1 are 6-2 ATS to date.  Wrong team favored?

 

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